Just Foreign Policy News November 9, 2006 Results of Referenda Calling for Withdrawal from Iraq: Wisconsin Network for Peace and Justice has published the results of referenda calling for withdrawal from Iraq in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Massachusetts: http://www.wnpj.org/homenow
No War with Iran: Petition More than 3500 people have signed the Just Foreign Policy/Peace Action petition through Just Foreign Policy's website. Please sign/circulate if you have yet to do so: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iranpetition.html Just Foreign Policy News daily podcast: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/podcasts/podcast_howto.html Summary: U.S./Top News Democrats won a 51st seat in the Senate and regained total control of Congress after 12 years of near-domination by the Republican Party, AP reported this morning. Democrats issued calls for bipartisanship even as they vowed to investigate administration policies and decisions. Rumsfeld's resignation resignation opens the possibility of closing the detention facility at Guantánamo, the Miami Herald reports. In 2004, Robert Gates, Bush's nominee to replace Rumsfeld, recommended that the U.S. government lift its ban on US nongovernmental organizations being able to operate in Iran, the New York Times reports. Gates said, "Greater interaction between Iranians and the rest of the world," he said, "sets the stage for the kind of internal change that we all hope will happen there." President Bush acknowdged that he "dissembled" (a euphemism for lying) when he told a reporter before the election that he wanted Rumsfeld to stay for another two years, the Los Angeles Times reports. Iraqis on Thursday cheered the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, AP reports. Democratic control of the House and possibly the Senate, combined with the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, has set the stage for a dramatic shift in the Bush administration's policy toward the Iraq war, the Washington Post reports. Iraqi leaders, bolstered by assurances from U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad, said yesterday they saw no change in the level of U.S. support, despite the Democratic electoral victory and the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, Reuters reports. Iran Western diplomats said Moscow has grown impatient with Iran's refusal to open all its facilities to inspections by the IAEA, Reuters reports. Russia has told Iran Russia will "have to back some sanctions in the end," and that Russia find's Iran's "refusal to let the IAEA into some facilities incomprehensible and that Iran would benefit the most from such transparency because it would dispel all doubts." India detained an empty North Korean cargo ship bound for Iran after it strayed into Indian waters, Reuters reports. A Security Council resolution calls on U.N. members to take steps, including inspection of cargoes to and from North Korea to prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Indian officials said they were not acting at the behest of the U.N. but simply because a suspicious ship had entered Indian waters. Iran's press wrote with glee on Thursday about the drubbing President Bush's Republicans received in U.S. elections but predicted it would only moderate, not radically change, U.S. foreign policy, Reuters reports. Iraq Iraq's parliament voted Wednesday to extend the country's state of emergency for 30 more days, as at least 66 more Iraqis were killed or found dead, AP reports. The state of emergency has been renewed every month since it was first authorized in November 2004. Lebanon Lebanon faces a political crisis with the emerging power of Lebanon's Shiite population and the Christians' feeling of vulnerability, the New York Times reports. Palestine Israeli tank shells killed 18 Palestinians, including 8 children and 6 women, in Gaza Wednesday, the New York Times reports. Some Hamas leaders called for retaliation inside Israel. Hamas's military wing also said the US should be taught "hard lessons" as well. The threat was an unusual escalation for Hamas, which has portrayed its fight as being against Israel alone. It was immediately disavowed by a spokesman for the Hamas-led Palestinian government. Afghanistan Afghans have lost confidence in the direction of their country over the past two years, according to a survey financed by USAID. Venezuela Since President Chávez returned to power after a coup in 2002, the US has channeled millions of dollars to Venezuelan organizations, many of them critical of his government. This aid has become a key issue in the presidential election next month, the New York Times reports. Cyprus The EU Wednesday issued its strongest warning yet to Turkey to open its ports to Cyprus and make more progress on human rights or face a possible suspension of talks over allowing the country to join the EU, the New York Times reports. Contents: U.S./Top News 1) Democrats win control of Congress Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, November 9, 2006, 10:35 Eastern http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061109/ap_on_el_ge/eln_election_rdp Democrats won a 51st seat in the Senate and regained total control of Congress after 12 years of near-domination by the Republican Party. The shift dramatically alters the government's balance of power, leaving President Bush without GOP congressional control to drive his legislative agenda. Democrats hailed the results and issued calls for bipartisanship even as they vowed to investigate administration policies and decisions. Democrats completed their sweep Wednesday evening by ousting Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia, the last of six GOP incumbents to lose re-election bids in a midterm election marked by deep dissatisfaction with the president and the war in Iraq. In the House, Democrats won 230 seats and led in two races, while Republicans won 196 seats and led in seven races. If current trends hold, Democrats would have a 232-203 majority - 14 more than the number necessary to hold the barest of majorities in the 435-member chamber. Without losing any seats of their own, Democrats captured 28 GOP-held seats. Allen lost to Democrat Jim Webb, a former Republican who served as Navy secretary in the Reagan administration. A count by The Associated Press showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Allen was awaiting the results of a statewide postelection canvass of votes and did not concede the race. 2) Rumsfeld Exit May Reopen Detention Issue Guantánamo was Donald Rumsfeld's baby. Now, some see a chance for change in the U.S. war-on-terrorism detention policy. Carol Rosenberg, Miami Herald, Posted on Thu, Nov. 09, 2006 http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/15965812.htm
From his perch at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld had an
intimate, early interest in the creation of the detention center for terrorism suspects at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. With a stroke of his pen, he approved, temporarily, the harshest of interrogation tactics used there and was an outspoken advocate of the U.S. policy of indefinite detention without civilian court review. Now, analysts say, his resignation offers the Bush administration a chance to rethink the controversial policies that have earned the US international condemnation. "It has become such a bad example of a lot of things - the military generally, bad planning, lack of foresight and the specific intention to abuse people," said retired Rear Adm. John Hutson, dean of the Franklin Pierce Law Center. "The US tried to create a prison where no law touched; I think [Rumsfeld's resignation] presents the opportunity to close it."
From 1997 to 2000, Hutson was the Navy's top uniformed lawyer. Then he
left a 28-year military career. As a civilian, he soon emerged as an outspoken critic of the legal framework that created the detention center at the U.S. Navy base in southeastern Cuba. Now, he said, the military can't set everyone free but can redefine the standard for holding men, let some go, transfer others elsewhere, and bring stateside those who can legitimately be convicted of crimes. On Wednesday, there was "huge relief he's gone" among British national security circles, said Richard Norton-Taylor, The Guardian newspaper's security affairs editor, in an e-mail from London. "UK security and intelligence agencies - MI5 and MI6 - were aghast at the way Rumsfeld triumphantly displayed the first Guantánamo prisoners," he said. He described the stark images from Camp X-Ray, which persist even today, as "a terrible hostage to fortune ... in the fight against terrorism and struggle for hearts and minds." Democrats in the past have opposed the stripping of habeas corpus protections from Guantánamo detainees. Some have called for the center's closure, if only to improve the international standing of the US, by moving some of the captives to detention elsewhere. 3) Robert Gates, A Cautious Player From A Past Bush Team Scott Shane, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/washington/09gates.html In choosing Robert Gates as his next defense secretary, President Bush reached back to an earlier era in Republican foreign policy, one marked more by caution and pragmatism than that of the neoconservatives who have shaped the Bush administration's war in Iraq and confrontations with Iran and North Korea. Gates is in many ways the antithesis of Rumsfeld. He has been privately critical of the administration's failure to execute its military and political plans for Iraq, and he has spent the last six months quietly debating new approaches to the war, as a member of the Iraq Study Group run by James Baker and Lee Hamilton. It was under Bush's father that Gates first rose to influence, as deputy national security adviser and then director of central intelligence. He was not part of the group that advised the current President Bush during his 2000 campaign, and he has publicly questioned the administration's approach to Iran, saying in a 2004 report for the Council on Foreign Relations that its refusal to talk to the Tehran government was ultimately self-defeating. "This is a signal that there will be a major effort to avoid confrontation on national security issues," said Dov Zakheim, a former senior official in Rumsfeld's Pentagon who left the administration in 2004. He described Gates as "a pragmatist and a realist" who would be "no lightning rod." A longtime Soviet analyst who spent two decades at the CIA, Gates served as deputy to Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser, during the administration of George H. W. Bush. There, he worked closely with Baker and Rice. Gen. Michael Hayden, now C.I.A. director, also served on the staff of the National Security Council at the time. Gates was confirmed in 1991 as director of central intelligence after a bruising confirmation fight in which subordinates alleged that he had politicized reporting on the Soviet Union. If Gates was initially reluctant to return to Washington, it may be because he knows what it means to be at the center of political crossfire. First picked by President Reagan in 1987 to succeed Casey, Gates withdrew in the face of senators' concern that he had not been candid about his knowledge of the Iran-contra affair. A hint of the approach Gates might bring to the job, drawing on his experience at the end of the cold war, can be found in his remarks in 2004 at the release of the Council on Foreign Relations report, called "Iran: Time for a New Approach." "One of our recommendations is that the U.S. government lift its ban in terms of nongovernmental organizations being able to operate in Iran," Gates said. "Greater interaction between Iranians and the rest of the world," he said, "sets the stage for the kind of internal change that we all hope will happen there." 4) President Admits Rumsfeld Pretense James Gerstenzang, Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-leaving9nov09,1,5367458.story A week ago, President Bush said in an interview with news service reporters that he wanted Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to remain at the Pentagon for the administration's final two years. On Wednesday, he said Rumsfeld was leaving, and he made it clear that he agreed there was a need for a "fresh perspective" at the Defense Department. Challenged at a White House news conference about his show of support for Rumsfeld last week, Bush said he had given that answer because he had not had a "final conversation" with the secretary about the need for a "fresh perspective," though he as much as knew that a shift was coming. Explaining his apparent dissembling, the president said he did not want to inject "a major decision about this war in the final days of a campaign." "The only way to answer that question and to get you onto another question was to give you that answer," he said to a reporter who took part in the interview. Bush also said a week ago that the position of Vice President Dick Cheney - who, with Rumsfeld, has been a leading architect of war policy - was secure. "Both those men are doing fantastic jobs," he said then. Before a reporter could finish asking Wednesday whether Cheney would be vice president for the next two years, Bush cut him off. "Yes, he will," he said. 5) Iraqis Cheer Rumsfeld Departure Sameer N. Yacoub, Associated Press, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 6:33 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900279.html Iraqis on Thursday cheered the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, blaming him for policy failures and scandals they say helped spawn the daily sectarian carnage wracking their nation. "Rumsfeld's resignation shows the scale of the mess the U.S. has made in Iraq," said Ibrahim Ali, who works at the Oil Ministry. "The efforts by American politicians to hide their failure are no longer working." Many in Baghdad said they expect changes in the U.S. approach under Rumsfeld's expected replacement, former CIA director Robert Gates. "I think that there will a shift in the U.S. policy in Iraq after his resignation," said Osama Ahmed, a civil servant. What changes could be in store aren't yet clear, although ideas for a new strategy are being studied by an independent U.S. commission led by former Secretary of State Baker and former Rep. Hamilton. The White House says it is opposed to two prominent options - the partitioning of Iraq or a phased withdrawal of troops. Whatever suggestions are put forward, however, Iraqis said Rumsfeld's departure was a positive move. "Rumsfeld's resignation is a good step because he failed to keep security in Iraq," said Saad Jawad, a former army officer who also works at the Oil Ministry. Many Iraqis blamed Rumsfeld for spurring the emergence of Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias by disbanding the former Iraqi army following the April 2003 toppling of the former government of Saddam Hussein. Although that order was actually issued by former top U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, such sentiments show how widely Rumsfeld is identified with failed policies in Iraq. "I am happy with Rumsfeld's resignation because he played a major role in disbanding the former Iraqi army. He participated in building the new army on a sectarian basis," said Louai Abdel-Hussein, a Shiite who owns a small grocery in Baghdad. Ahmed, the civil servant, said Rumsfeld should also be held responsible for crimes by American forces in Iraq, particularly the abuse of Iraqis at Abu Ghraib prison that became known in 2004. "Rumsfeld's resignation is not enough," Ahmed said. "He should be put under investigation for his responsibility in the crimes committed in Abu Ghraib and the killings and rapes carried out by U.S. soldiers against Iraqi citizens, he said. 6) Stage Set For Iraq Policy Shift Both Parties May Seek Cover in Recommendations of Study Group Glenn Kessler & Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, Thursday, November 9, 2006; A25 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110802517.html Democratic control of the House and possibly the Senate, combined with the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, has set the stage for a dramatic shift in the Bush administration's policy toward the Iraq war, lawmakers and experts said. The contours of a new policy are not clear, but there is likely to be more pressure on the Iraqi government to rein in sectarian violence and a growing clamor from Democrats to begin a drawdown of U.S. troops. Rumsfeld is slated to be replaced by Robert Gates, a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group who has spent recent weeks learning the problems of the administration's current approach. Unlike Rumsfeld, who was widely seen as a roadblock to a shift in strategy, Gates is expected to be much more receptive to implementing the group's recommendations, due to be made public about Dec. 7. Gates has been frustrated that the administration has been unable to adjust to changing circumstances in Iraq, according to one person who has spoken to him about the administration's management of the war. Gates, he said, believes "you can't be afraid to adjust your action to adjust to the realities on the ground." Sen. Biden, who would chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if Democrats capture the Virginia Senate seat and control of the Senate, said he understood that Gates "has a much more pragmatic and realistic view of the place we find ourselves" in Iraq and is much more willing to work with the uniformed military than Rumsfeld was. Even before the election, both Democrats and Republicans had been eagerly awaiting the recommendations of the study group, which is headed by former secretary of state Baker, and former representative Hamilton. The group of mainstream foreign policy experts is not poised to make radical suggestions when it unveils its report, but official Washington has expected both parties to seize on its ideas for political cover. One senior Senate aide said both parties are looking for an exit from Iraq out of "pure political interests." After their devastating losses, Republicans do not want Iraq to be an electoral albatross in 2008; Democrats, meanwhile, do not want it to still be the first order of business if they reoccupy the White House in 2009. Biden said that a number of Republicans have told him privately that they are willing to push for a change in course on Iraq after the election. "We have a narrow window before 2008 kicks in to get a bipartisan consensus on Iraq," he said. The Baker-Hamilton study group is not expected to call for pulling out of Iraq quickly. Rather, insiders say, the most likely recommendation will be to curtail the goal of democratizing Iraq and instead emphasize stability. That might entail devoting more resources to training and equipping Iraq's military, perhaps by radically increasing the size of the U.S. training and advisory effort. Pelosi said the administration and Congress need to work together "to send a clear message to the Iraqi government and people that they must disarm the militias, they must amend their constitution, they must engage in regional diplomacy to bring more stability and reconstruction to Iraq, and that we must begin the responsible redeployment of our troops outside of Iraq." Ike Skelton, who likely will take over as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, last year sent Bush a letter calling for the removal of one U.S. brigade - about 3,500 troops - for every three Iraqi brigades deemed capable. He said Bush told him his formula was "too rigid," but Skelton said he will press for this approach from his new position of power. "I think this is an important opportunity to begin a new policy direction," he said. 7) Iraqis see no shift in U.S. support Mussab Al-Khairalla, Reuters, November 9, 2006 http://www.washtimes.com/world/20061109-122537-1977r.htm Iraqi leaders, bolstered by assurances from U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, said yesterday they saw no change in the level of U.S. support, despite the Democratic electoral victory and the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said Rumsfeld's departure was an internal matter for the US. "We are dealing with an administration, not persons," he said. But ordinary citizens said they saw little hope that the power shift in Washington could restore their wrecked country or bring a quick end to the daily violence. Speaking before Rumsfeld's departure was revealed, Khalilzad told a reception attended by government officials, Iraqi legislators and U.S. Embassy personnel that "the president is the architect of U.S. foreign policy." President Bush "understands what's at stake in Iraq. He is committed to working with both houses of Congress to get support needed for the mission in Iraq to succeed," Khalilzad said. Bush, in a White House press conference yesterday, acknowledged problems with the Iraq effort, but said Tuesday's vote would not weaken U.S. resolve. "The enemy is going to say, 'Well, [the election] must mean America is going to leave.' And the answer is, 'No.' " But Iraq's continuing problems were on display again yesterday as the parliament voted to extend the country's state of emergency for 30 more days amid reports that at least 66 more Iraqis were killed or found dead. Yesterday's deaths included those of eight soccer players and fans cut down by a pair of mortar rounds that slammed into a field in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood. The U.S. military, meanwhile, announced the deaths of a soldier and a Marine, raising the number of American forces killed in Iraq in the first eight days of November to 21. Iran 8) Iran's Larijani to visit Russia on Friday Valery Stepchenkov, Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 7:05 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900286.html Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani will visit Moscow on Friday amid concern in the West about Russia's readiness to back U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program. "The Secretary of the (Iranian) National Security Council, Mr Larijani, arrives in Moscow tomorrow and he will have negotiations in the Russian Security Council and the Foreign Ministry," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters. Russia says it is determined to prevent Tehran obtaining a nuclear weapon but has tried to water down a draft UN resolution on sanctions being thrashed out by EU envoys. Speaking at a meeting with his Bahraini counterpart, Lavrov said Russia believed the best way out of the standoff with Iran was multilateral talks between Tehran and major powers. "We are still convinced that there is a place for the continuation of peaceful negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Sanctions are very sensitive...and we have to behave extremely responsibly." Western diplomats said Moscow has grown increasingly impatient with Iran's refusal to open all its facilities to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). "The Russians have told the Iranians that they will have to back some sanctions in the end," a diplomat told Reuters. "They told the Iranians that they find their refusal to let the IAEA into some facilities incomprehensible and that Iran would benefit the most from such transparency because it would dispel all doubts." An EU diplomat said Iran has been barring inspectors from bunkers and tunnels which U.N. inspectors have good grounds for wanting to visit. Lavrov said Moscow's proposal to enrich uranium for Iran's nuclear power program on Russian soil should be on the agenda when any multilateral talks started. Moscow made the enrichment offer earlier this year but received no response from Iran. "There have been no changes in our position whatsoever," RIA news agency quoted Lavrov as saying. "We are pursuing the resumption of talks as soon as possible. When talks start all options that would help the non-proliferation regime will be examined. In this context, I think our proposal (to enrich uranium for Iran) will be very much in demand." Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had been due to visit Moscow this week but this was postponed. Tehran requested the postponement, Lavrov said, without giving the reason. Russia is carrying out a multi-million dollar contract to build a nuclear power station for Iran at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf. Some western diplomats say Moscow is concerned any sanctions may affect that contract. 9) Detained Iran-bound North Korea ship baffles India Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 2:59 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900124.html India has detained an empty North Korean cargo ship bound for Iran after it strayed into Indian waters, baffling coast guard officials and police about the purpose of its voyage. "MV Omrani-II" developed a snag and entered Indian waters on October 29 and was towed to the Mumbai Port where the crew was being questioned by Indian intelligence and customs officials. "The crew has not been able to explain why they were sailing an empty vessel to Iran," a senior coast guard official told Reuters on condition of anonymity on Thursday. However a senior official at the Directorate General of Shipping said: "They have told us that because it is a new ship they were testing it. But it is strange that they should need to sail as far as Iran." Officials said documents for the new 45-meter vessel were in order, although life-saving equipment was found to be deficient. A U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea after its October 9 nuclear test calls on U.N. members to take steps, including "as necessary" the inspection of cargoes to and from North Korea to prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. But Indian officials said they were not acting at the behest of the U.N. but simply because a suspicious ship had entered Indian waters. "The investigations are part of standard procedures that are followed when a ship strays into our waters," A. Banerjee, a top shipping official told Reuters. Indian officials said they wanted to ensure that the ship was not hiding any contraband or being used to ferry material related to North Korea or Iran's nuclear programs. Pyongyang said last month that it had tested a nuclear device, while Iran says it is enriching its uranium to build nuclear power plants, rejecting Western concerns that it was planning to build a bomb. Military experts say Iranian missile technology is partly based on modified versions of equipment from other countries, such as North Korea. 10) Iran press gleeful but cautious after U.S. vote Edmund Blair, Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 4:29 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900229.html Iran's press wrote with glee on Thursday about the drubbing President Bush's Republicans received in U.S. elections but predicted it would only moderate, not radically change, U.S. foreign policy. One daily said the victorious U.S. Democrats were traditionally close to Israel, Iran's sworn enemy, a factor which might add to pressure on regional countries. The English-language Iran News wrote: "Most Americans have finally caught up with the rest of the world in rebuking the irresponsible, militaristic, arrogant, belligerent and entirely destabilizing policies of the Bush administration." It cautioned, however, against "expecting a sea change in American foreign policy." The conservative daily Siyasat-e Rouz agreed. "Regarding Iran and other opponents of America's policies around the world, there will be tangible changes but because Republicans are still in power in the White House, we cannot call it a major change in America's foreign policy," it said. Other commentators called the result a slap in the face for the Bush administration's invasion and occupation of Iraq. Iran has called for U.S. troops to leave. The US is pushing for a tough U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran over its disputed atomic program, which Tehran insists is aimed only at generating electricity. Washington has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails. Some newspapers said Bush would now be too embroiled in infighting at home to consider more military action abroad. "Bush's government will be obliged to take more cautious steps and instead of creating war around the world it will be obliged to fight politically with Democrats," the hardline Kayhan newspaper wrote. Newspapers did not touch directly on the nuclear dispute, but one Iranian analyst, who asked not to be named, said Iran would probably feel encouraged to press ahead with its plans. "I think it will make Iranians more determined in what they are doing," he said. Iraq 11) Iraq Lawmakers Extend State of Emergency Associated Press, November 9, 2006, Filed at 9:21 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq.html Beset by rampant sectarian violence, Iraq's parliament voted Wednesday to extend the country's state of emergency for 30 more days, as at least 66 more Iraqis were killed or found dead. Wednesday's deaths included those of eight soccer players and fans cut down by a pair of mortar rounds that slammed onto a field in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood. The U.S. military, meanwhile, announced the deaths of a soldier and a Marine, raising the number of American forces killed this month in Iraq to 21 in the first eight days of November. Lawmakers present for a closed-door meeting attended by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki voted unanimously to extend the emergency measures, said legislators Ammar Touama and Kamal al-Saidi. The state of emergency has been renewed every month since it was first authorized in November 2004. It allows for a nighttime curfew and gives the government extra powers to make arrests without warrants and launch police and military operations. The measures are implemented in all areas of the country apart from the autonomous Kurdish region in the north. Mortars struck the Sadr City playing field just after 4:30 p.m. during a game between young men from the sprawling Shiite slum that is home to about 2.5 million people, said a captain with the local police force, Mohammed Ismail. Twenty others were wounded in the attack, which came after days of mortar barrages launched by rival Sunni and Shiite groups on residential areas that have killed dozens in the capital. Lebanon 12) Christians Struggle to Preserve a Balance of Power Michael Slackman, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/middleeast/09lebanon.html Lebanon is facing a political crisis that has two faces: the emerging power of Lebanon's Shiite population, evident in Hezbollah's political strength and press for power, and the Christians' feeling of isolation and vulnerability. Lebanon's Christians, whatever their political allegiance, are trying to hold on to their place and power in Lebanon - shading a conflict over control of the government with political and social dimensions that cut to the heart of Lebanese national identity. Lebanon remains the most pluralistic society in a region monopolized by the two main sects of Islam, Sunni and Shiite. In Lebanon there are 18 different confessional groups. Carved out by the French as a haven for Christians, Lebanon has struggled to avoid confronting the reality of demographics - that the Christian population has shrunk, perhaps far more even than most here will admit. The definitive way to determine who is a majority or a minority - taking a census - is so taboo, no one has dared even raise it. That is an undercurrent, if unstated, in the battle for control in a state where Christians, Shiites and Sunnis are supposed to have equal shares of power - even while everyone knows that the constituencies are not equal in size, not even close. The current balance was established in the Taif accord in 1989, at the end of Lebanon's civil war. Under the treaty, Sunnis assumed the dominant position while Christians preserved their influence and power. But now the Taif era is widely regarded as over, with a handoff from Sunni to Shiite control well under way, although some Christians are still searching for a way to preserve the status quo. Lebanon's political leaders are scheduled to meet on Thursday, when they are expected to agree on a formula that would give Hezbollah and its Christian ally, Gen. Michel Aoun, more say over decisions, but not the veto power they desire. The discussion, however, is not expected to venture into the consideration of a truly equitable distribution of power. Generally speaking, Sunnis insist they are equal in number to Shiites. Shiites say they are a majority and Christians say they account for more than 20 percent. At the same time, all sides have said the state's convoluted election laws needed to be altered - but, for now, without becoming so democratic as to undermine the distribution of power. "A census will show the Christians are a clear minority," said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at American University in Beirut. "Nobody wants to know they extent of their decline. Some think they don't even make up 25 percent of the population." Some Christian leaders argue that a census is unnecessary because the state has an idea of the size of each constituency based on how many people vote. Geagea said that in the last election about 35 percent of the votes cast were by Christians. Amin Gemayel, leader of the small Christian Phalange party, said a census was unnecessary because Christians remained "geographically strong." What he meant was that Christians, like Shiites, tend to be concentrated in specific geographic areas, which is helpful when voting in local elections for members of Parliament. Sunnis, on the other hand, he said, are not as powerful because they are more spread out. Under the current system, each district must elect a set number of Christian, Shiite, Sunni or Druse representatives. But because the constituencies are large and mixed, he said, Christians feel that their Christian representatives are often more loyal to the larger number of Muslims in the district. Still, not all the Christian leaders are united in strategy. General Aoun, the former anti-Syrian commander and the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, has relied on an alliance with the pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian Hezbollah. That relationship may work for his ambition to become president - under the Taif accord, the president must be a Christian. But it is not clear at all that his followers, once considered to be the largest bloc of Christians in Lebanon, are comfortable with the arrangement. Palestine 13) Israeli Shelling Kills 18 Gazans; Anger Boils Up Ian Fisher & Steven Erlanger, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/middleeast/09mideast.html Israeli tank shells killed 18 Palestinians, including 8 children and 6 women, at a cluster of houses here on Wednesday, one of the largest single losses of life in Gaza in years. Some Hamas leaders called for a suicide-bombing retaliation inside Israel and, unusually, for the US to be taught "hard lessons" as well. "Nothing happened," mumbled Isra Athamnah, 5 years old, who was pocked with shrapnel and in shock. The news that her widowed mother, Sanaa, 35, was dead and that she was now an orphan did not sink in. Others described how a tank shell had hit a home here in northern Gaza, sending members of the extended Athamnah family outside before dawn. The next volleys struck them as they crowded in a narrow alley between the houses. The dead ranged from less than a year old to 70 years old, witnesses said. Israeli leaders expressed regret. They have been on the defensive over their performance in the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the more than 300 Palestinians killed in operations in Gaza since the summer. Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered a halt to artillery attacks in the densely populated Gaza Strip, which are intended to prevent Palestinians from launching rockets into nearby Israeli cities, and an immediate investigation. Initial findings suggested a misfire, the commander of the south, Gen. Yoav Galant, told Israel's Channel 2 television. After largely observing a unilateral truce that it declared a year and a half ago, Hamas called for renewed suicide bombings. Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas's political bureau exiled in Syria, said Hamas would answer the deaths with "deeds, not words." Hamas's military wing also said in a statement that the US should be taught "hard lessons" for supporting Israel. The threat, though vague, was an unusual escalation for Hamas, an Islamic-based militant group that has pointedly portrayed its fight as being against Israel alone. It was immediately disavowed by Ghazi Hamad, the spokesman for the Hamas-led Palestinian government in Gaza. Afghanistan 14) Afghans Losing Faith In Nation's Path, Poll Shows Carlotta Gall, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/asia/09afghan.html Afghans have lost a considerable amount of confidence in the direction of their country over the past two years, according to an extensive nationwide survey released Wednesday. While the national mood remains positive on the whole, the number of people with negative or mixed views on the trajectory of the country has grown significantly since a similar survey in 2004, according to the Asia Foundation, which conducted both surveys. "The number of Afghans who feel optimistic is lower than on the eve of the 2004 presidential elections," the survey found. It was the largest opinion survey conducted in Afghanistan. In it, 44 percent of Afghans interviewed said the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 64 percent in 2004 on the eve of the first democratic presidential elections in Afghanistan. Twenty-one percent said the country was headed in the wrong direction - compared with 11 percent in 2004 - and 29 percent had mixed feelings. Four percent were unsure. Security was the main reason for the increased concern, the survey said. Financed by the US Agency for International Development, the survey was conducted by the Asia Foundation, a nonprofit organization based in San Francisco, and by local partners, who interviewed more than 6,000 people from June through August this year in rural and urban areas of all but two of Afghanistan's provinces. The main goal of the survey was to determine the attitudes of Afghans toward the political process, public policy and development progress. Venezuela 15) Venezuela Groups Get U.S. Aid Amid Meddling Charges Simon Romero, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/americas/09venezuela.html Since President Hugo Chávez returned to power after a brief coup in 2002, the US has channeled millions of dollars to Venezuelan organizations, many of them critical of his government. This aid has become a key issue in the presidential election next month amid claims of American interference in the domestic political system. "Washington thinks it can buy regime change in Venezuela," said Carlos Escarrá, a leading legislator in the National Assembly who has been pushing for tighter regulation over the American financing of Venezuelan groups. He echoed recent comments from other high-ranking officials and from Chávez, who has a double-digit lead in most polls over his main opponent, Manuel Rosales. Chávez rarely refers in public to Rosales by name, instead framing his campaign as a choice between his government and the Bush administration. American diplomats here have remained largely quiet in commenting on the election, which is scheduled for Dec. 3, in contrast to the active role American officials played in Nicaragua before the election of Daniel Ortega. Government officials here exploit any example of American efforts to counter Chávez's influence as evidence of what they see as a looming confrontation with Washington. Vice President José Vicente Rangel has organized an event this week to publicize the release of "Bush vs. Chávez: Washington's War Against Venezuela," a book by Eva Golinger, an American lawyer who has become famous in Venezuela for detailing the American financing of groups here. USAID has distributed about $25 million to various Venezuelan organizations over the last five years, according to officials involved in the projects. The funds have been channeled to the Venezuelan groups through private and public entities from the US that have opened offices in Caracas. These include Development Alternatives Inc., a company that works closely with the State Department in dispersing funds around the world, and the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, two Washington groups that have carried out training for emerging political leaders in Venezuela. Documents obtained from the US government under the Freedom of Information Act point to numerous grants made by the US in the past two years to groups whose activities are viewed as critical of Chávez's government. The international development agency withheld the names of many of the grant recipients, saying that the disclosure of their identities could put them at risk of political retaliation. All of the grants were channeled through Development Alternatives, which worked on behalf of the Office of Transition Initiatives, a branch of the international development agency that started operating in Venezuela after the April 2002 coup. O.T.I. normally finances activities in strife-torn countries like Liberia, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Its only operations in Latin America are in Venezuela and Bolivia, two countries that have developed an alliance based in part on shared distrust of the US. Chávez has repeatedly lashed out at the US government's activities, mixing his attacks with unsubstantiated claims that the Bush administration is financing covert intelligence operations aimed at strengthening his opponent's campaign. This criticism has played well among the president's political base, where anti-American sentiment has flourished since Chávez was briefly removed from power in a coup in 2002 with the Bush administration's tacit approval. Some grants were directed at organizations whose stated objectives seemed to look for potential weaknesses in Chávez's administration. One $33,304 grant in March 2005 was called "Land Redistribution Dos and Don'ts," and required its unidentified recipient to investigate agricultural policies in areas where the federal government had been carrying out land expropriations. Other grants had what appeared to be an objective of building support for potential rivals to Chávez. A $47,459 grant, for instance, was made in July 2005 to an organization whose goal was to meet with organizations to build a "democratic leadership campaign." The agency's grants in Venezuela have raised concern among some political analysts who see parallels in efforts by Washington to destabilize the socialist government of Salvador Allende in Chile in the early 1970s or attempts to influence the domestic political system of Nicaragua in the 1980s. "I wouldn't feel comfortable with the Chinese government doing something like this in the U.S.," said Jeremy Bigwood, an international policy analyst at the Center for Economic Policy and Research in Washington. Bigwood filed a pending lawsuit against the agency for international development this year asking that it name its recipients. He said not doing so changed it from a "civilian to a clandestine service." Meanwhile, a backlash to the American financing has been building. Prosecutors filed conspiracy charges against leaders of Súmate, a voter education group, after it received $31,000 from the National Endowment for Democracy, another entity backed by the US government that distributes money to groups in Venezuela. A proposed law is also making its way through the National Assembly that would regulate international financing of nongovernmental organizations. The bill, which has been criticized by anticorruption groups like Transparency International, has been held up until after the election. Cyprus 16) Turks' Bid to Join Europe Stalls on Cyprus and Rights, Official Warns Dan Bilefsky & James Kanter, New York Times, November 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/europe/09turkey.html The governing commission of the EU Wednesday issued its strongest warning yet to Turkey to open its ports to Cyprus and make more progress on human rights or face a possible suspension of talks over allowing the country to join the organization. Speaking after the release of a report highly critical of Turkey's efforts to make changes requested by the EU, Olli Rehn, the union's expansion commissioner, delivered what appeared to be an ultimatum to Turkey: soften the intransigence over Cyprus or risk the collapse of the EU bid. Turkey has refused to meet an end-of-year deadline set by the EU to open its ports and airports to the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus, which belongs to the organization. Turkey insists it will not compromise on Cyprus unless the EU lifts a trade embargo against the northern Turkish side of Cyprus. The report, which also highlighted shortcomings on issues like minority rights and freedom of speech, did not call for an immediate halt in the talks with Turkey. But EU officials said the harsh tone of the report made it increasingly likely that a summit meeting of EU leaders in mid-December would at least consider a partial suspension of the negotiations. The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sought to play down the criticism. "For us, the E.U. process maintains its importance," he said. "Our aim is to achieve the maximum possible. Our struggle will continue." A poll published Tuesday by the International Strategic Research Organization showed that two-thirds of Turks would rather suspend membership talks with the EU than give ground over Cyprus. "If the E.U. fulfills its promise to end the isolation of Northern Cyprus, then we will open our ports," said Egemen Bagis, a senior adviser to Erdogan and a member of the governing Justice and Development Party. "If European leaders want reforms to continue in Turkey, if they want their safety to be assured in an unstable region, if they want to assure an alternative energy supply, then they should show us some encouragement," he said. The report also rebuked Turkey for its failure to meet minimum standards on human rights and cited concerns over the rights of women, Kurds and religious minorities. - Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming U.S. foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the majority of Americans.
