Plenty of hype about how quickly homes are moving. Don't believe it.
This fellow, Gil-Osorio, is probably just closing a flurry of sales at
the same time.
To wit:
"The Zillow real estate search company claims Santa Cruz County
experienced negative appreciation in the third quarter compared to a
year ago. A startup launched earlier this year, Zillow uses a
proprietary formula for estimating values."
The market looks great for "...proprietary formula(s) for estimating
values."
Santa Cruz Senile:
November 11, 2006
Median home price hits $748,400
By Jondi Gumz
Sentinel staff writer
Looking at October's home sale statistics — record high listings and
record low sales — some might see gloom and doom. But not Arnoldo
Gil-Osorio.
A veteran Century 21 agent who came here from Colombia 32 years ago,
Gil-Osorio says he's too busy to go on vacation.
He said he closed escrow on 11 homes in August and September and has
sold several homes over $1 million. One buyer paid cash. Another came
for a consultation and made offers on two homes.
"If this is a slow market, not in my book," he said. "I don't see a real
bubble as a possibility in Santa Cruz."
Gil-Osorio is not the only busy sales agent.
"We had a very good month," said Terry Ballantyne of David Lyng Real
Estate, who said her company leads the county in sales. "Year to date,
we've had 461 transactions. We're about $100 million ahead on dollar
volume."
Overall, though, sales have shrunk compared to the past two go-go years,
according to Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who compiles the
monthly statistics.
Prices are up more than $100,000 compared to two years ago, with slight
changes month to month for homes and more volatility for condos. Instead
of escalating, the median seems to be leveling.
In October, the median sales price for single family homes was $748,400,
up from $743,000 in September. For condos, it was $497,000, down from
$542,000.
October sales totaled 141, down 19 percent from last year and down 44
percent from two years ago.
The number of listings declined 9 percent, but at 1,172, listings are
the highest in 10 years for this time of year. There are 31 percent more
listings than last year and 81 percent more than two years ago.
At the current sales rate, it would take 8.3 months to sell everything
that's listed, down from 9.3 months in September.
Some of the same situations exist in the condo market. Only 37 condos
were sold, close to a 10-year low for October. Buyers had their pick of
267 listings, 49 percent more compared to last year at this time and a
whopping 184 percent more than two years ago.
At this sales rate, it would take 7.2 months to sell everything listed,
down from 9.5 months.
"This is still on the borderline between a normal market and a buyer's
market," Gangnes said, noting the sales rate index normally ranges
between six and eight months.
A year ago, buyers faced a seller's market. In contrast, current
conditions are not so extreme, Gangnes said.
For prospective buyers, that may create opportunities as the holidays
approach since November and December are typically slow months.
The Zillow real estate search company claims Santa Cruz County
experienced negative appreciation in the third quarter compared to a
year ago. A startup launched earlier this year, Zillow uses a
proprietary formula for estimating values.
Critics say the company tends to inflate property values, but some
investors appreciate having another source of information.
Ballantyne's advice: Don't give up.
"It's an excellent time to be looking," she said. "The 18-month miracle
is gone but California real estate is bulletproof if you can stay five
years."
Contact Jondi Gumz at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
OK, the housing market isn't what it was last year, but there was an
honest-to-goodness party when the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors
hosted "A Taste of Santa Cruz" at the Cocoanut Grove last week. The room
was packed, with almost 600 people in attendance and $61,000 raised, up
from $45,000 last year.
"We couldn't be happier," said Philip Tedesco, executive director for
the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors Housing Foundation.
The money benefits the association's Housing Foundation, which
underwrites grants to help low-income home buyers cover closing costs.
Last year's event, which was a first, helped 11 families buy homes in
Santa Cruz, Capitola, Aptos and Watsonville.
Whether it was the cause or the lure of cuisine and local wines, the
people who came clearly enjoyed themselves.
"We have twice the space and we're still crowded," said Barbara Townsend
of Monterey Bay Properties.
George Vomvolakis, co-owner of DeLaveaga Lodge, pitched his food as the
best in town and Linda Chase of Stage Right appreciated the exposure and
the networking.
Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who crunches the numbers on county
home sales every month, dressed up as the Wizard of Oz. He said it was
all Bobbie Herteman's idea. Herteman, his co-worker at Real Options,
played the Scarecrow, Karen Sommerfeld was the Tin Man and David Shoaf
was the Lion.
Christa Shanaman and Betty Southstone, from Coast County Real Estate,
came as the Wicked Witch and Glinda the Good, respectively.
Debbie McPherson from Stagnaro Bros. looked just like Dorothy in her
gingham, serving up tasty samples at the Real Options booth.
Almost three dozen restaurants and wineries chipped in, offering
everything from appetizers and soups to desserts. They offered up
auction prizes that raised thousands of dollars.
The bottom line: A dozen families will become homeowners.
You can't go wrong when your party has a purpose.
To apply for a Housing Foundation grant, go to www.scaorhf.org.
Zillow's view of Santa Cruz County
The real estate Web site, Zillow.com, produces a quarterly report on
home values. Zillow says home values rose in Ben Lomond and Scotts
Valley in the third quarter and fell in the rest of the county.
The company developed the "Zindex," a median based on current value of
every home in the area, and claims it represents values better than a
median based on homes sold. Critics claim the numbers are inflated.
Zindex value
Location Single-family home Condo
Aptos $830,755 $633,259
Ben Lomond $655,961 NA
Boulder Creek $553,415 $498,070
Capitola $794,432 $484,877
Felton $592,294 NA
Santa Cruz $788,142 $549,266
Scotts Valley $849,184 $556,349
Watsonville $709,927 $557,335
Source: www.Zillow.com
You can find this story online at:
http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/archive/2006/November/11/biz/stories/01biz.htm
