A perfect propaganda campaign on the part of pro-Washington regimes in
the Middle East. -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/17/world/middleeast/17shiite.html>
January 17, 2007
News Analysis
Hangings Fuel Sectarian Split Across Mideast
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN

CAIRO, Jan. 16 — The botched hanging of Saddam Hussein and two
lieutenants in Iraq by its Shiite-led government has helped to
accelerate Sunni-Shiite sectarianism across an already fragile Middle
East, according to experts across the region.

The chaotic executions and the calm with which Mr. Hussein confronted
the gallows and mocking Shiite guards have bolstered his image among
many of his fellow Sunni Muslims.

But something else is happening too: a pan-Muslim unity that surged
after the summer war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite
militia, is waning.

And while political analysts and government officials in the region
say the spreading Sunni disillusionment with Shiites and their backers
in Iran will benefit Sunni-led governments and the United States, they
and others worry that the tensions could start to balkanize the region
as they have in Iraq itself.

"The reality of the current situation is that we are approaching an
open Sunni-Shiite conflict in the region," said Emad Gad, a specialist
in international relations at the government-financed Al Ahram Center
for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "And Egypt will also be
a part of it as a part of the Sunni axis. No one will be able to avoid
or escape it."

This changing dynamic in the region, described by many scholars,
analysts and officials in recent days, is a result not only of the
hangings, the Iraq war and the Lebanese political struggle. It has
also been encouraged by Sunni-led governments like those in Egypt,
Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and some Sunni religious leaders alarmed by
the rising influence of Iran, the region's biggest Shiite power. Far
from Cairo, in a sprawling farming village in the Nile Delta region
north of the city, Hamada Abdullah, a Sunni Muslim, said that after
the war between Hezbollah and Israel, he posted a small picture of
Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, on the bare wall of his
home. It did not matter that Sheik Nasrallah was a Shiite Muslim
aligned with the Shiite state of Iran.

To Mr. Abdullah, Sheik Nasrallah was first and foremost a bold Arab
resistance leader. But since the hanging of Mr. Hussein and since
Hezbollah has pushed to topple the Sunni-led government in Lebanon, he
has begun to reconsider.

He says he is suspicious of Sheik Nasrallah and his politics. "His
whole army in the south of Lebanon, they are Shiites," Mr. Abdullah
said. While some American officials and Sunni leaders say that
increased tension leads to reduced Iranian influence, others say that
sectarian loyalties are difficult to control.

"When Hezbollah did what they did in Lebanon in the summer, no one
thought of it as a Shiite party; it was a nationalist party," said
Taher Masri, a former prime minister of Jordan. "Now with the events
in Iraq culminating in the way Saddam Hussein was executed and the
lack of condemnation and total silence of Hezbollah, many people are
examining the position of Hezbollah as a Shiite party."

Some of the region's Sunni-led governments and religious leaders used
the hanging of Mr. Hussein on a Sunni Muslim holy day as a weapon in
the jockeying for regional power.

"Sunni states are using this sectarian card to undercut Iran's
influence because they feel that Iran was able to penetrate the Arab
world after the fall of Iraq, which was acting as a shield against
Iranian influence," said Marwan Kabalan, a political science professor
at Damascus University.

Sunnis make up a vast majority of the Islamic world. Shiites, who lead
Iran and the Iraqi government, are the next largest sect. The two
split over who would lead Islam after the death of the Prophet
Muhammad.

While the two have theological differences — and similarities — the
gathering conflict is being stoked by a determination by Sunni leaders
to preserve, or reinvigorate, their waning influence in the region —
while emboldened Shiites have pressed for more influence.

After the war between Hezbollah and Israel, Shiite leaders seemed to
reach their zenith as an antidote to a Sunni Muslim leadership widely
viewed as corrupt, impotent and stooges of the West, analysts said.

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Sheik Nasrallah of
Hezbollah, each won wide followings across the region for their
willingness to defy the United States. Hezbollah and its allies
pressed for more power in Lebanon and when rebuffed, began
demonstrations intended to topple the government.

Now, fueled by state controlled media in many Sunni Muslim states, a
divide, or at least an estrangement, is growing across the Middle East
between Sunni Muslims and Shiites. Egyptians, for example, are
inundated nearly daily with headlines, commentaries and television
reports alleging Shiite transgressions.

An Egyptian-government controlled satellite service, called Nilesat,
has been broadcasting across the Arab world Al Zawraa, a television
station that shows what is billed as heroic footage of the Sunni
insurgency in Iraq, American soldiers being killed and wounded, and
unflattering images of Shiite leaders.

"Raising the ugly face of Shiites, expanding Iranian influence in the
region," read a headline in a recent edition of Rose el-Youssef, a
pro-government Egyptian newspaper.

In December, a top religious leader close to the Saudi royal family,
Abdul Rahman al-Barak, said that Shiites, whom he called
rejectionists, were worse than Jews or Christians.

"By and large, rejectionists are the most evil sect of the nation and
they have all the ingredients of the infidels," he wrote.

Such talk is causing a creeping sectarian tension, political analysts
said. In Mr. Abdullah's village in the Nile Delta region of Egypt,
where many people had posted a picture of Sheik Nasrallah, there is a
growing sense of disunity with Shiites that mirrors partly what is
happening in Iraq. "Saddam Hussein was the one courageous man among
Arab leaders," said Ibrahim Mustafa Ibrahim, a school janitor. "We saw
how he was executed. We saw everything."

Nada Bakri and Mona el-Naggar contributed reporting.
--
Yoshie
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