On 1/26/07, John Gulick <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Marv Gandall posted:
"High Prices Prod Developed World To Curb Oil Use; Data Show First Drop In
Two Decades in West;
Crude Dips Below $50"
Gulick sez:
I wonder how much the following dynamic of cause and effect enters the
equation, or could enter the equation in future:
much higher petroleum prices -> somewhat higher energy resource prices in
general -> accelerated shifting of energy-intensive industrial production
from high-wage OECD to low-wage China -> energy-intensive Chinese industrial
producers substitute domestic coal for foreign oil as an indirect source of
motive power (what with those 100's of coal fired power plants coming on
line)
I guess I could make some headway with this hypothesis by checking out
year-on-year Chinese coal extraction and burning stats, but I do recall
reading somewhere that this accounted for the serious tapering of Chinese
oil consumption growth.
In essence, the short-term impact of OECD countries gobbling slightly less
oil is China gobbling a lot more (dirty brown) coal. Having been to Beijing
recently, you'd better damn believe that local and national notables are
hoping that the wind is blowing the right way when the world's eyes are on
the town in Summer 2008... I guess I also read somewhere about the CCP
adding cloud-seeding experiments to their smoke and mirrors arsenal.
"On a worldwide basis coal's share of industrial sector energy use
increases, mostly because of the substantial growth projected for coal
consumption in China's industrial sector. In the IEO2006 reference
case, industrial energy use in China more than triples from 2003 to
2030 as a result of the country's abundant coal reserves, its limited
reserves of oil and natural gas, and its leading position in world
steel production," says the EIA ("International Energy Outlook 2006,"
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html>).
Coal can substitute for oil to a certain extent mainly in the
industrial and electricity generation sectors. However, the main
driver for oil consumption in China and much of the rest of the world
is the transportation sector: "Energy use for transportation in China
is projected to grow by 5 percent per year between now and 2025.
Virtually all of the projected increase is for petroleum products;
about two-thirds of that is expected to be for transportation.
Personal travel in China has soared in the past two decades, with
passenger miles traveled increasing fivefold. China had 14.5 million
registered vehicles (including passenger cars, trucks and buses) at
the end of 2001. According to forecasts conducted by the International
Energy Agency, this number could climb to 130 million by 2030" (E.
Anthony Wayne, Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs,
"Energy Trends in China and India and Their Implications for the
United States," Testimony Before the Committee of Foreign Relations,
U.S. Senate, 26 July 2005,
<http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/rm/2005/66574.htm>).
And on a related note, isn't the stateside biofuels and ethanol craze going
to put huge pressure on North American natural gas supplies?
Upward pressures on food prices, which have big political
implications, may be a more immediate result.
<http://english.people.com.cn/200701/26/eng20070126_344936.html>
China to replace a quarter of refined oil with liquid biofuels
font size ZoomIn ZoomOut
The Chinese government aims to develop liquid biofuels like ethanol
and bio-diesel in rural areas to cut usage of refined oil by 10
million tons, or more than a quarter, by 2020, senior official said on
Thursday.
The development of biofuels would solve the country's energy shortage
and ensure national energy security, said Shi Yanquan, deputy director
of the Ministry of Agriculture's department of science, technology and
education.
As the world's third largest oil importer after the United State and
Japan, China imported record-high 36.38 million tons of refined oil
last year, 15.7 percent up on 2005, to fuel an estimated annual
economic growth of 10.7 percent.
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
<http://monthlyreview.org/>
