[just to show I'm not making up the PEN-L obsession with recession - there are 3,153 hits on the word in the archives - here's the cull from the last two months]
PEN-L message, Re: Puzzled ... think the fourth quarter 2006 stats for the US will be > much worse when the final estimates come out. It's quite likely that > 2007 will be a recession year. Consumer spending can't keep the US > economy going much longer. Of course, I could be wrong about 2007, but > if I am, it just pushes ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w05/msg00175.htm 02/04/07, 8433 bytes PEN-L message, Re: Puzzled ... stats for the US will be much worse when the final estimates come out. Why? What's the source of the error? It's quite likely that 2007 will be a recession year. Consumer spending can't keep the US economy going much longer. Of course, I could be wrong about 2007, but if I am, it just pushes the problem ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w05/msg00174.htm 02/04/07, 5838 bytes PEN-L message, Re: Puzzled ... good. I think the fourth quarter 2006 stats for the US will be much worse when the final estimates come out. It's quite likely that 2007 will be a recession year. Consumer spending can't keep the US economy going much longer. Of course, I could be wrong about 2007, but if I am, it just pushes the problem ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w05/msg00173.htm 02/04/07, 8445 bytes PEN-L message, Saudi Officials Seek to Temper the Price of Oil ... gasoline — has eased the pressure on the domestic economy, quieting talk that oil prices and the declining housing market would lead to a recession. The Saudis appear to be rediscovering that painfully high energy prices take a profound toll on the global economy, which in turn reduces demand ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w04/msg00130.htm 01/27/07, 15762 bytes PEN-L message, Pfizer stuns Mich. with huge job cuts ... Jan 2007 11:41:23 -0500 * Thread-index: AcdAn6YhkmEO/VL/Sb6y +iNassyl+g== Is there any economic analysis or theory on geographically localized "recession/depression" ? Michigan is in economic depression. Charles ^^^^^^^ <http://cmsimg.detnews.com/apps/ pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=C3&Date=20070123 ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w04/msg00064.htm 01/25/07, 12688 bytes PEN-L message, Re: Missing in Antiwar Action ... and nineties in front of the assisted living center. I think this is the time sort of like 1966 when protest began to mount in the U.S. The coming recession offers the same sort of fodder that the civil rights movement did. I think one task now is to begin to reverse this attitude that the U.S. is quiet ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w03/msg00192.htm 01/21/07, 7321 bytes PEN-L message, Empiricists... Thou Art Avenged! ... in economics, that is) by Yale economist Truman Bewley <http:// cowles.econ.yale.edu/faculty/bewley.htm> called Why Wages Don't Fall During a Recession <http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/faculty/bewley.htm>. Bewley, a theorist highly skilled in the most abstruse mathematical techniques, dropped ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w02/msg00034.htm 01/10/07, 19693 bytes PEN-L message, Amid Political Upheaval, Israeli Economy Stays Healthy ... over the last six years from a little over $15,000 a year to around $18,000, according to government figures. Israel turned the corner on a two-year recession in 2003, and for the past three years the economy has expanded at 4.4 percent to 5.2 percent annually, with a similar forecast for next year ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2007w01/msg00004.htm 01/01/07, 13618 bytes PEN-L message, New guerrilla groups in Mexico ... closely linked to former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, and the representative of the Carlyle Group in Mexico. Perhaps triggered by the coming recession in the U.S. or a catastrophic failure of his invasion of Michoacán, but -- I think -- the chances of Calderón's administration ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w50/msg00186.htm 12/15/06, 8908 bytes PEN-L message, guns to caviar index ... on fighters. The events of 9/11 and its aftereffects temporarily reversed the trend. Spending on fighter jets doubled between 2001 and 2004, while a recession, scandals, and low business confidence knocked down spending on business jets sharply in both 2002 and 2003. The ratio popped back in favor of ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w50/msg00181.htm 12/15/06, 11054 bytes PEN-L message, Three Pillars of the US Empire ... American private-sector workers' total compensation (wages plus benefits) has risen by only 11% in real terms since November 2001, the trough of the recession, compared with an average gain of 17% over the equivalent period of the five previous recoveries (see chart 3). In most developed countries, ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w50/msg00067.htm 12/12/06, 45202 bytes PEN-L message, Re: it's about time! ... in 1979 to notoriously use the fiat of the Federal Reserve to push the rate of interest up to close to 20 per cent, thus deliberately causing a recession not only in the United States but throughout much of the world, and forcing a change in monetary policy. Corresponding political changes facilitated ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w50/msg00004.htm 12/11/06, 10356 bytes PEN-L message, Re: Daily Telegraph: Economic storm brewing in America ... in America By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 07/12/2006 America's stock markets typically start crumbling four months before each recession, anticipating the crunch in profits. Shares then grind relentlessly down for 10 months or so until they have on average knocked 26 per cent off ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w50/msg00001.htm 12/10/06, 12466 bytes PEN-L message, Plunging dollar, plunging markets? ... first time in more than three years. Wall Street is now betting that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will slash interest rates to stave off a recession. The dollar ended the week at $1.98 against the pound, and $1.32 to the euro, but analysts say there is further weakness to come. 'I think the ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w49/msg00041.htm 12/04/06, 8838 bytes PEN-L message, Re: The economy? ... , 3 Dec 2006 20:53:51 -0800 Greetings Economists; On Dec 3, 2006, at 12:29 PM, Eugene Coyle wrote: A big factor will be oil prices -- but even if the recession here eases demand, oil price might not fall in US dollars because of the weak dollar. Doyle; I think a shift to the left in South America is ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w49/msg00007.htm 12/03/06, 5839 bytes PEN-L message, Re: The economy? ... else. The weak dollar will raise the prices of imports. So the FED will see inflation. The Fed (why all caps? it's not an acronym) will not let a recession get out of hand, or at least they'll try to keep it from getting out of hand. They let things get pretty unwound in the early 1980s, but that was ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w48/msg00235.htm 12/03/06, 5772 bytes PEN-L message, The economy? ... me think about this: I see the USA economy being hit harder by the housing crash than does the conventional wisdom of the conventional economists. A recession ahead. But food prices seem bound to increase -- wheat price is surely going to rise as the Australian drought knocks much of the export crop ... http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/PEN-L/2006w48/msg00234.htm 12/03/06, 6737 bytes
