<http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/Speeches/2000/20000405.htm>

Short of a significant opening up of our borders to more
immigration, an increase in employment beyond the growth of the
working-age population is limited to what remains of our shrinking
pool of available workers. Although the sum of the unemployed and
those not in the labor force but who nonetheless are available for
work is still about ten million, the level has been falling
steadily. This year, the figure has been lower as a percentage of
the population than at any time in the history of this series,
which goes back to 1970. Should the pool of available workers
continue to shrink, there is a point at which this safety valve for
excess demand will effectively close, even in the face of
accelerating productivity. We do not know where that point is, but
presumably it would occur well before a full depletion of the pool
of potential workers. When we reach that point, short of a repeal
of the law of supply and demand, the scarcity of labor will almost
surely induce a rise in hourly compensation gains that increasingly
outpaces an even faster productivity growth--a condition that would
cause unit costs to accelerate over time.

This was April 2000, as the Nasdaq was peaking. He said this quite a
few times starting around 1996.

Doug

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