That's hilarious, Shane. Especially since many peak oil theorists who think the peak is 10 or 40 years away now, or who thought the peak was 10 or 40 years away in 1969 thought those time frames were/are driving past/current price spikes. And that seems plausible, but we want to know why hurricanes in the gulf that forced the shutdown of several big platforms and damaged refineries caused a spike in futures?
In 1999 the peak theorists were proclaiming that the approaching peak (2000, 2001) brought the prices back from below $10/barrel. So the market priced in an 8 year future based on what? The rationality of the participants? Their great knowledge of the real limits of geology? But to answer you question why should short term effects have any bearing? Here's the short answer(s) for short term effects: 1. fear and greed. 2. because it can. 3. because "should" has nothing to do with it. 4. because the "rationality" of the market is nothing but a bi-polar disorder where all the oscillations are about separating fools and money. 5. because the market is all about what the market will bear. 6. because refinery capacity has been effectively reduced in the US over the last 20 years. 7. because short-term/long-term price inflation in oil is no different than short-term/long-term price inflation in... copper, corn, info technology stocks, dotcoms, container ship daily rental rates... the list goes on and on...let's just say.... commodities. 8. because price is all about rearranging, redistributing profit. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Shane Mage" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, September 14, 2007 10:46 PM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] CNN on > "S. Artesian" wrrote: > > >And the evidence? Right, right oil futures at $80.99. Has nothing > >to do with hurricane season, impact of Humberto on US refineries and > >Gulf Coast production. It must be the end of the oil era. > > And why should the short-term effects of a minor hurricane have any > bearing at all on the expected price of oil three or six months, or a year, > in the future? >
