On Oct 9, 2007, at 10:51 AM, Jim Devine wrote:
Interestingly, the O'Neil data don't add much information to the official stats. Graphing the two over time with each measured on different Y axes, the O'Neil measure moves in the same general direction as the official measure, while the latter has has more cyclical movement (rising with unemployment).
But the ratio of O'N's measure to the official one is procyclical - in recessions and early recoveries, it was around 1.4-1.5, rising to 1.7 late in expansions (note the highs in 1978-9, 1989, and 1998). I wonder if a low unemployment rate is good for the very poor, but doesn't do all that much for the near-poor. Doug
