Sandwichman (Tom) wrote: > It should also be needless to say we will NEVER "run out of oil". The > whole peak business has to do with the technical capacity to extract > *ever increasing quantities* of the product economically.
In other words, it's a modern variant of the Ricardo/Malthus prediction of diminishing returns to land. > Predictions > of peak oil may be based on pessimistic assessments of the prospects > of technical breakthroughs. However, the argument against peak oil > *assumes* that technical breakthroughs will occur when needed, simply > because they are needed. While the pessimistic predictions may be > merely wrong, the pollyanna scenario is fantastic. why? it seems that technological change is almost a constant under capitalism (though many of those changes are a bad thing from a humanistic perspective). Further, persistently high prices of oil adds an extra incentive to find cheaper ways to get the stuff. That includes introducing new technology. (That doesn't mean that high prices of oil create an incentive to do the right thing, however.) Also, high oil prices encourage people to use less of it (or steal it, like some people are doing with copper). > And yes, global warming may get us first. But it also could become a > contributor to the peak episode in that climate change could > accelerate demand at the same time it interupts supply. it's possible that rising sea levels could swamp oil fields. Also a severe depression would block new investment in oil technology. in response to Tom, Paul writes: >... Economically viable oil will *sooner or later run out*... < What defines "economically viable"? might technological change not allow some oil that's currently not "economically viable" to become so? BTW, I think fears of peak oil are a good thing (except for those cultists reported on by HARPER'S magazine a year or so ago). It encourages people to stop using oil and thus delays global warming. -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
