Overview of the Putin-Trump call and what it means
From a hahahaha fake news site - unlike the BBC
http://www.911forum.org.uk/board/viewtopic.php?p=176539#176539
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS
The Duran Wed, 22 Nov 2017 15:34 UTC
https://www.sott.net/article/368751-Overview-of-the-Putin-Trump-call-and-what-it-means
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin - blocked by the US bureaucracy
from having a proper meeting with each other at the APEC summit in
Vietnam - have instead had the detailed discussion they wanted with
each other by telephone.
That is the conclusion one must draw from the unusually detailed
summary of this conversation which has been provided by the Kremlin's website.
"As agreed in advance, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation
with President of the United States of America Donald Trump."
"Current Syrian issues, in view of the military operation to
destroy terrorists in Syria which is winding down, were thoroughly
discussed. Vladimir Putin stressed Russia's willingness to actively
facilitate a durable political settlement in that country on the
basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and in keeping with the
agreements reached as part of the Astana meetings and the provisions
of the Joint Statement approved by the presidents of Russia and the
United States on November 11 at the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in
Vietnam. It was noted, in particular, that this statement met with a
positive reaction in the Middle East.
There was discussion of the need to preserve the sovereignty,
independence and territorial integrity of Syria, and to achieve a
political settlement on the basis of principles that must be worked
out as a result of the broadest possible intra-Syrian negotiation
process. This is precisely the aim of Russia's initiative to hold the
National Dialogue Conference in Sochi soon.
Vladimir Putin informed Donald Trump about the main outcomes of the
November 20 meeting with Bashar al-Assad, where the Syrian leader
reaffirmed his commitment to the political process, constitutional
reform, and presidential and parliamentary elections. In addition,
emphasis was placed on the upcoming trilateral talks in Sochi on
November 22 with the participation of the presidents of Russia, Iran
and Turkey, during which steps to further normalise the situation in
Syria and various aspects of the political settlement process are to
be coordinated.
More broadly, the President of Russia once again spoke in favour of
joint antiterrorist efforts with the United States, noting the
practical importance of coordinating efforts between the special
services of both countries. The US President was supportive of this idea.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also exchanged views on the current
state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula, emphasising that it would
be advisable to find a negotiated solution to the problem by diplomatic means.
Regarding the crisis in southeast Ukraine, the President of Russia
pointed to the lack of a real alternative to unconditional compliance
with the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015.
The two leaders touched on the situation in Afghanistan, which is
of concern due to the growing terrorist and drug trafficking threats.
The situation surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme was also
discussed. Russia's commitment to full implementation of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action was noted, as it is an essential factor
in ensuring regional stability and overcoming the challenge of
non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Both sides expressed satisfaction with the businesslike and
substantive conversation."
The Kremlin says the conversation was "agreed in advance". One
would like to know when and by whom?
My guess is that Trump and Putin agreed to it during one of their
short encounters at the APEC summit, when they realised that a proper
summit between them was being blocked. If so then the conversation is
the fruit of their encounters at the APEC summit.
The conversation covered an unusually wide range of issues:
Syria
This was unquestionably the most important topic discussed, and the
one which would have taken up the most time.
The Russians are very much at the forefront of the Syrian
negotiations, having together with the Iranians effectively won the
war in Syria for President Assad.
That has put the Russians in a position of great strength, which they
could in theory use to dictate the terms of the settlement at the
forthcoming negotiations whilst seeking to exclude the US.
Had positions been reversed, and had the US found itself in such a
position of advantage, it is a certainty that it would be not be
involving the Russians in the negotiations. The US after all did not
involve the Russians in the negotiations which followed the US
"victories" in the 2003 Iraqi war and the 2011 Libyan war.
The Russian approach is the diametric opposite. Instead of seeking
to exclude the US from the negotiations Putin briefed Trump fully on
his discussions with President Assad - someone who remains persona
non grata for the US and for Donald Trump himself - and set out for
Trump the Russian approach to the negotiations.
In doing so Putin followed the classic Russian approach of carefully
setting out for Trump the list of international agreements the
Russians have negotiated and which they are using as the building
blocks of the negotiations.
"UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and in keeping with the
agreements reached as part of the Astana meetings and the provisions
of the Joint Statement approved by the presidents of Russia and the
United States on November 11 at the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in
Vietnam."
Of these the most important for Trump is the Joint Statement he
made with Putin at the APEC summit in Vietnam.
Trump was not involved in the earlier agreements, but will feel
that he has ownership of the Joint Statement, and by agreeing to it
at the APEC summit and by referring to it in his telephone
conversation with Trump, Putin is giving Trump a reason to feel that
he is an actual participant in the negotiations and is not just a bystander.
In reality the most important of the agreements Putin referred to
during the conversation is UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which
was passed unanimously by the UN Security Council on 18th December
2015 following lengthy negotiations between Russian Foreign Minister
Lavrov and US Secretary of State Kerry.
The full text of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 can be found here.
Why is it so important to Putin and the Russians to involve Trump
in the negotiations? The clue to that can be found in the topics
which were discussed. For example Putin used the conversation to
reaffirm to Trump "the need to preserve the sovereignty, independence
and territorial integrity of Syria."
This language is taken directly from the preamble of UN Security
Council Resolution 2254, which reads as follows: "Reaffirming [the UN
Security Council's] strong commitment to the sovereignty,
independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic."
What lies behind this is Russian concern about what I recently
called the US's Plan C: the attempt by some in the US to maintain US
influence in Syria by carving out a quasi independent Kurdish
statelet in northern Syria.
Plan C is already in serious trouble as a result of the defeat of the
Kurds in Kirkuk by the Iraqi army. However Putin used the telephone
conversation to remind Trump that Plan C - because it threatens
Syria's territorial integrity - is incompatible with the commitments
the US previously took on itself when it negotiated and voted for UN
Security Council Resolution 2254.
Putin also used the conversation with Trump to remind Trump of his
longstanding proposal - made most famously in his September 2015 UN
General Assembly Speech - for a joint struggle by the US and Russia
against Jihadi terrorism.
Trump has been consistently receptive to this idea - the Kremlin's
summary says he was "supportive of this idea" - but it has been
consistently blocked by the US bureaucracy including especially the Pentagon.
For Putin the attraction of this proposal is not just that such a
joint struggle will facilitate the global struggle against terrorism
- something Putin cares about as much as Trump does - but because
such a joint struggle might provide a tie between the US and Russia
which might reverse the downward spiral in US-Russian relations.
Whilst Trump is "supportive of the idea" it remains to be seen
whether the resistance to in Washington can be overcome.
In summary, Putin is keeping Trump informed of Russia's Syrian
diplomacy in order to limit as far as possible the danger of the US
acting as a spoiler. The idea is to get Trump to think that the US
has some ownership over the eventual outcome, so that it does not act
to wreck it.
At the same time Putin hopes to use this as a bridge towards
improving relations.
Whether given the pathological hostility to Russia in the US these
efforts can be successful is another matter. However Putin doubtless
feels that by trying he is doing his job.
Korea
The Kremlin's summary tells us little about the discussion on the
Korean issue, which suggests that this part of the conversation may
have been brief.
It is quite likely that it was Trump who initiated this part of the
conversation since he has made achieving a settlement of the North
Korean issue the central focus of his foreign policy.
Putin will no doubt have sought an explanation from Trump of
Trump's recent decision to put North Korea back on the list of states
sponsoring terrorism, and he will also have sought reassurances from
Trump that the recent US fleet and troop movements near North Korea
are not intended to set the scene for US military action.
Putin will also have briefed Trump about Russia's recent
negotiations with the North Korean diplomat Choe Son Hui, and he will
no doubt have reminded Trump of the Chinese-Russian proposal for a
double-freeze.
Trump for his part will no doubt have sought - and received -
reassurances from Putin that Russia will enforce the sanctions the UN
Security Council has recently imposed on North Korea following that
country's intercontinental ballistic missile and hydrogen bomb tests.
Ukraine
Donald Trump hinted during the 2016 election campaign that for him
the conflict in Ukraine came close to the bottom of his list of
foreign policy priorities. However he has encountered fierce
resistance from his bureaucracy, which continues to be committed to
Ukraine, and which continues to use the conflict there to mobilise
opposition to Russia in Europe.
Recently hardliners in the US have been floating proposals to send
weapons - notably Javelin anti-tank missiles - to Ukraine, whilst an
article in the Wall Street Journal suggested that some US officials
were trying to pressure the Russians into agreeing to a force of
20,000 "peacekeepers" to restore the Donbass to Ukrainian control.
Needless to say the Russians have emphatically rejected both
proposals, and Putin followed this up by taking the unprecedented
step of telephoning Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky - the leaders of the
Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics - and having details of this
call posted on the Kremlin's website in what was clearly intended as
a show of support.
The proposals to flood the Donbass with 'peacekeepers' and to send
arms to Ukraine are actually inconsistent with the February 2015
Minsk Agreement as the Russians never tire of pointing out, and the
Kremlin's summary of Putin's conversation with Trump shows that Putin
used the opportunity provided by the call to point this out to him.
"Regarding the crisis in southeast Ukraine, the President of Russia
pointed to the lack of a real alternative to unconditional compliance
with the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015."
My impression is that Trump is not interested in the conflict in
Ukraine, in which he rightly sees no national or security interest
for the US. Left to himself he would probably gladly walk away from
it, as would many of those who supported him in the 2016 election.
With the Russiagate affair still ongoing, that is politically impossible.
What that means in practical terms is that Trump will have listened
to what Putin had to say and will have taken note of it, but this
will have no immediate effect on US policy.
If Trump is one day able to put Russiagate behind him and
consolidate his position in Washington that may change. However that
is not the situation now.
Afghanistan
The last few months have witnessed a drumbeat of accusations in the
US that the Russians are covertly assisting the Taliban by sending
arms and economic aid to them. The Russians categorically deny these
accusations, though they admit to holding talks with the Taliban who
they are gradually coming to see as a bulwark against the spread of
ISIS to Afghanistan.
The Kremlin's summary suggests that the part of the telephone
conversation between Trump and Putin which touched on Afghanistan was
brief, and that these accusations were not discussed in any detail if
they were discussed at all.
"The two leaders touched on the situation in Afghanistan, which is
of concern due to the growing terrorist and drug trafficking threats."
The reference to "drug trafficking threats" possibly refers to the
longstanding Russian complaint that the US is not doing enough to
suppress heroin production and trafficking in Afghanistan. A large
part of this heroin is transported across Russia to Europe, causing a
serious heroin problem in Russia, and the Russians have been placing
the blame for this on the blind eye that they say that the US has
been turning to heroin production in Afghanistan.
It is quite likely that Putin raised this issue with Trump whilst
repeating Russia's concern that ISIS, as it is being driven out of
Syria and Iraq, is now starting to gain a foothold in Afghanistan.
Though these are concerns Trump is known to share, the terse part
of the Kremlin's summary of this section of their conversation makes
it impossible to say what his reaction was.
It is not impossible that the reason this part of the summary is so
terse is because there were disagreements, which the Kremlin does not
want to publicise.
Iran
On the subject of Iran, Trump and Putin have diametrically opposite views.
Trump sees Iran as a hotbed of terrorism; Putin sees Iran as Russia's
strategic partner and ally in the struggle against terrorism.
Trump considers the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ("JCPOA")
which placed limits on Iran's nuclear programme a "bad deal", and has
recently decertified Iran because of its supposed breaches of it.
Putin unequivocally supports the JCPOA and denies that Iran has
committed any breaches of it.
The Kremlin's summary makes no effort to hide the disagreement.
"Russia's commitment to full implementation of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action was noted, as it is an essential factor
in ensuring regional stability and overcoming the challenge of
non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."
No word is said here of what opinions Trump expressed, though it is
a certainty they were the opposite of the ones held by Putin and
Russia. Doubtless Trump and Putin had a forthright exchange of
opinions on this issue.
General
Unusually, the Kremlin website tells us something of the atmosphere
of the call.
"Both sides expressed satisfaction with the businesslike and
substantive conversation."
It is a commonplace in the US and Europe that Donald Trump is
terrible at diplomacy.
In reality his interactions with world leaders during his recent
Asia tour and his conversations with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping
tell a different story.
Though Trump is extremely inexperienced and many of his ideas about
foreign policy are frankly amateur, he nonetheless comes across as
warm and approachable in a way that his cold and aloof predecessor
Barack Obama never did.
The result is that other world leaders - especially those outside
Europe - like him in a way that they never liked Barack Obama, and
are prepared to cut him slack, even when they disagree with him.
That suggests that if the US bureaucracy was prepared to work with
Trump and not against him, and instead of seeking to undermine him at
every turn sought to help him gain the experience and understanding
of world affairs he needs to do his job, then he could in time become
an extremely effective foreign policy President.
Trump's interactions with Xi Jinping and Putin are cases in point.
As the leaders of the two other Great Powers they are the two most
important individuals in the world with whom the US and its President
must deal.
Trump seems to understand this, and despite a catalogue of
misunderstandings he seems to be gradually edging towards a better
understanding of the Chinese leader. As for Putin, Trump's few
interactions with him at a personal level have always gone well. The
"businesslike and substantive" telephone conversation he has just had
with Putin is a case in point.
As for Putin, his conversation with Trump was just part of a day's
work. That day was extremely busy. As well as the conversation with
Trump, Putin had meetings with President Assad of Syria and President
Zeman of the Czech Republic, and also had telephone conversations
with President Sisi of Egypt, King Salman of Saudi Arabia and Prime
Minister Netanyahu of Israel. Today (22nd November 2017) he will be
meeting President Erdogan of Turkey and President Rouhani of Iran.
It will take many years of hard learning and hard work before
Donald Trump can conduct diplomacy at that sort of pace.
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