Dua pakar yang di quote Jakarta Post, meramalkan Palangka Raya, Balikpapan,
Lampung dan Jayapura, dan terakhir Pantura dan Jawa Barat sebagai ajang
kerusuhan baru.
Do you wanna a bet ? I hope not.
----- Original Message -----
From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, April 12, 1999 2:29 PM
Subject: [Jakarta Post]: Experts identify areas of possible future unrest
> ----------
> Monday, 12 April 1999
>
> [Jakarta Post]: Experts identify areas of possible future unrest
> ----------
>
> JAKARTA (JP): Experts warned unrest was likely either to occur or
accelerate
> in West Java and several areas outside of Java, including Palangkaraya,
> Central Kalimantan; Balikpapan, East Kalimantan; Lampung, Sumatra and
> Jayapura, Irian Jaya.
>
> The unrest will mostly be sparked by nonpolitical factors such as
economics
> and ethnic and religions differences, but will be politically motivated,
> historian Ahmad Mansur Suryanegara of Padjajaran University in Bandung and
> sociologist Thamrin Amal Tomagola of the University of Indonesia
separately
> said on Sunday
>
> 'Hired provocateurs will play significant roles in creating riots in the
> field, and there's not much we can do about this," Mansur said in a
telephone
> interview. "Even the Armed Forces is unable to identify them due to their
> neat network engineered by foreign powers to break this country apart."
>
> "Foreign interference through religious missions performed by Protestant
> missionaries in the jungles of Kalimantan will likely spark riots in the
> coming weeks in areas such as Palangkaraya," Mansur also said.
>
> Foreign missionaries, who Mansur believes do not instill nationalism, may
> prompt aggressive behavior from their congregations. In the case of
> Kalimantan, the congregations are Dayaks, he said.
>
> Palangkaraya is about 60 percent Christian and 40 percent Muslim, Mansur
> noted.
>
> "Palangkaraya could be rocked by conflicts between the Dayaks (who are
mostly
> Christian) and the (Muslim) Malays. (These) would be unlike the conflicts
in
> Sambas, West Kalimantan," he said.
>
> In Sambas bloody clashes which so far have killed 200 people occurred
between
> Madurese migrants and the Dayaks, whose allies in the violence were the
> Malays.
>
> To avoid such unrest, Christian leaders must arrange for foreign
missionaries
> to be replaced with local missionaries with a strong sense of nationalism,
he
> said.
>
> Mansur also said that around May unrest may hit West Java in a number of
> areas, including Kopo on the outskirts of Bandung and the towns of
> Tasikmalaya and Sukabumi.
>
> "The riots, in terms of time and location, may inch toward the center of
> power which is Jakarta," he said. "Riots may hit areas in West Java which
are
> not easily reached or well-covered by security forces."
>
> Foreign powers, including the United States, may use certain dates,
including
> May 23, which is the anniversary of the now-outlawed Indonesian Communist
> Party (PKI), he said.
>
> " Historically, West Java is the strongest base of the PKI because its
> followers dispersed (around the time of the aborted coup attempt blamed on
> the party) rather than being massacred like those in Central and East
Java,"
> he said.
>
> The nearest areas to Jakarta which may easily be sparked to riot are
> Tangerang, Bogor and Bekasi, all in West Java, he added.
>
> "Simple criminal actions in those areas such as the activities of hoodlums
or
> brawls between residents ... will become typical triggers of unrest," he
said.
>
> The riots will be aimed at sabotaging the June 7 general election and
> destroying the chances of President B.J. Habibie being elected, Mansur
noted.
>
> Mansur believes the United States played a large role in previous riots
and
> again will play a role in the predicted future unrest.
>
> "Historically, the U.S. has always interfered in the country's political
> process. This time they want Indonesia to break into small countries based
on
> ethnic groups. "
>
> "I think the U.S feels threatened (because Habibie favors cooperation with
> Australia and the European Union."
>
> The overall picture in the country shows an effort to destroy Islamic
powers
> by breaking the lines of transportation and other economic bases run by
the
> migrant ethnic groups the Bugis and the Madurese, he said.
>
> "Most of the riots have similar characteristics. The Bugis (from South
> Sulawesi) and the Madurese (from East Java's island of Madura) were the
> targets in the Ambon and Sambas unrest," Mansur added.
>
> Thamrin, however based his analysis of possible future riots on four
factors,
> the religious and ethnic polarization of social groups, uneven economic
> distribution, insecurity and pressure among communities and the ruling
> Golkar's tendency to take the side of certain groups of people.
>
> "Riots are unlikely to hit areas where the community is dominated by a
> certain ethnic group or religion. The smaller parties will not dare take
the
> risk and go against the bigger groups Thamrin said.
>
> Thamrin said volatile areas were as follows:
>
> . The areas along the northern coast of Java (Pantura) in which
> Golkar seems to be involved in a fierce competition with the
> Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
> the National Awakening Party (PKB).
> . Javapura Merauke and Manokwari in Irian Jaya, where locals
> abhor "annexation" by Javanese migrants.
> . Towns which have dynamic economic development, including
> Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Medan, North Sumatra and Lampung. (edt)
>
>
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