Hi, Tomas!
I've assigned to review this patch.

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I've checked version estimate-num-groups-v2.txt by Mark Dilger.
It applies to head cleanly, passes corrected regression tests.
About correlated/uncorrelated cases. I think now optimizer mostly assumes
all distributions to be independent.
I think we should follow this assumption in this case also until we have
fundamentally better option (like your multivariate statistics).
@@ -3438,9 +3438,9 @@ estimate_num_groups(PlannerInfo *root, List
*groupExprs, double input_rows,
reldistinct = clamp;
/*
- * Multiply by restriction selectivity.
+ * Estimate number of distinct values expected in given number of rows.
*/
- reldistinct *= rel->rows / rel->tuples;
+ reldistinct *= (1 - powl((reldistinct - 1) / reldistinct, rel->rows));
/*
* Update estimate of total distinct groups.
I think we need way more explanation in comments here (possibly with
external links). For now, it looks like formula which appears from nowhere.
Also, note that rel->tuples gone away from formula parameters. So, we
actually don't care about how may tuples are in the table. This is because
this formula assumes that same tuple could be selected multiple times. For
low numbers this can lead to some errors. Consider selecting 2 from 3
distinct tuples. If you can't select same tuple twice then you always
selecting 2 distinct tuples. But according to formula you will select 5/3
in average. I think this error in small numbers is negligible, especially
because getting rid of this error would require way more computations. But
it worth mentioning in comments though.
------
Alexander Korotkov
Postgres Professional: http://www.postgrespro.com
The Russian Postgres Company