ANALYZE might be producing poor stats due to :
i) many dead tuples or ii) high proportion of dead tuples in the first few pages of the table
Does a VACUUM FULL followed by ANALYZE change the estimates (or have you tried this already)?
(p.s. - I probably don't qualify for the 'more knowledge' bit either...)
You can also increase your statistics_target which will make ANALYZE take longer but can help a great deal
with larger data sets.
Sincerely,
Joshua D. Drake
regards
Mark
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