Dear all, The first CamPoS session of Lent term will be held this Wednesday, 23rd January, 1-2:30pm in HPS Seminar Room 2. Charlotte Werndl (LSE) will give a talk entitled "The Problem of Double-Counting Evidence Illustrated by Climate Science". The abstract is below, followed by the schedule for the whole term.
All are very welcome, and we hope to see many of you there. Best wishes, Vashka -- This paper argues that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate -- deserve more careful scrutiny in climate modelling circles. It is widely held that double-counting is bad and that separate data must be used for calibration and confirmation. It is shown that this is far from obviously true, and that climate scientists may be confusing their targets. The analysis turns on a Bayesian/relative-likelihood approach to incremental confirmation. According to this approach, double-counting is entirely proper. The paper then goes on to discuss plausible difficulties with calibrating climate models, and more and less ambitious notions of confirmation are distinguished. Strong claims of confirmation may not, in many cases, be warranted, but it would be a mistake to regard double-counting as the culprit. -- 23-Jan-2013 Charlotte Werndl The Problem of Double-Counting Evidence Illustrated by Climate Science 30-Jan-2013 Elselijn Kingma Dysfunction and Biological Variation: a problem for SE accounts of functions 6-Feb-2013 Emma Tobin Domain Specificity in Protein Classification: A Problem for Monism 13-Feb-2013 Adrian Boutel Winchgenstein and functional explanation 20-Feb-2013 Brian Pitts Real Change Happens in General Relativity, Even in Hamiltonian Form 27-Feb-2013 Katharina Kraus Does psychological knowledge presuppose self-knowledge? A Kantian perspective 6-Mar-2013 Christopher Clarke How autonomous are social scientific explanations? 13-Mar-2013 Stephen John The social epistemology of the International Panel on Climate Change _____________________________________________________ Sent by the CamPhilEvents mailing list. To unsubscribe or change your membership options, please visit the list information page: http://bit.ly/CamPhilEvents Posts are archived here: http://bit.ly/CamPhilEventsArchive
