Dear Cambridge Philosophers of Science,

Tomorrow, 19 October, our CamPoS speaker will be Arif Ahmed from 
Philosophy, talking on 'Belief and Statistical Evidence'.  His abstract 
is below.

Brian Pitts

'Hume's argument concerning miracles and the well-known gate-crasher 
paradox are both cases where people seem reluctant to believe something, 
or courts seem reluctant to convict someone, despite extremely strong 
statistical evidence that the thing is true or that the person is 
guilty. I propose to account for this in terms of some simple ideas from 
Signal Detection Theory. The upshot is that Hume is still right, but the 
courts may sometimes be wrong.'

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