On Fri, 2003-03-14 at 16:48, joe wrote: > Jef, substitute "database" for "game", rewind to > 1998 and re-read your statements. > Sounds really lame huh? the only difference is > the 20-20 hindsight we now have about the db > market - in 1998, all the pundits made dire and > negative predictions for linux as a database > platform, just as you're now doing for linux as a > gaming platform.
I dont have negative predictions...I have realistic ones. And im not a pundit, I am not learned, and my opinions hold not authoritative weight. I'm just a small dog with a loud bark, who likes barking at other small dogs, like you. And no I don't think its lame really...how large is the current game industry in terms of number of vendors and number of titles...compared to the db industry? Where is the db market focused? Where is the game industry focused..in terms of customerbase? How big of a customer base is really needed for a gamehouse to be in the black? How big of a customer base for a db vender? You want to draw market comparisons, that probably aren't that valid since game developers probably have to sell far more volume per development dollar spent compared to database vendors. Or at least I don't think they are analagous in the way you really want to make them out to be...but your timeline might sure be dead on,1998-2003, and here we are seeing Red Hat focus on the market segment databases vendors make their money on, the enterprise in 2003. It's a market maturity issue, and focusing on gaming too early is very much a poor business decision. So at best your timeline argument means Red Hat will really be focusing on the home desktop market in 2005 abouts.Oracle put its first linux version out there in 1998, i think...and quake3 client for linux came out in 1999/2000 so that would put the timeline for Red Hat to look at gaming support at about 2005...which is what 4 Red Hat linux releases away or so at the current pace of RHL development...not near term...and long enough for my comment for you to hold yer breath while you wait for the market to really blossom to have the desired result. But I have to wonder, since Oracle introduced a linux db product in 1998..how much development support did Oracle end up providing to the linux OS? How directly invested in linux's development has Oracle been? Has Oracle added to the general open source development efforts. How invested is the db vendors generally in open source development? Have they reaped what they've sown? And I stand by my comment that gaming will become important when the game software developers start investing a modicum of development effort back into the open source environment they will be making money on. Expecting someone like Red Hat to bootstrap everything the game software company needs to live happy off of like a parasite is a little naive. Game developers themselves will have to become invested in the development of linux's potential as a gaming platform. Game developers and hardware manufacturers are in the position to profit in the linux gaming market, and as a result will be the ones who will end up paying for some of the open source development needed to turn that potential into a reality. 2005 is the mark. -jef"I can only hold my breath for 1 year...not 2"spaleta
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