I too seem to be stuck on this issue. My serial modem is picked up by ModemManager just fine and it is within signal range. The 'pon' command is able to create a working ppp0 device (after a minute or two on occasions), but using NetworkManager with 'nmcli con up <myconnectionid>' will return just "Error: Connection activation failed."
I would try extending the timeout, but it appears --timeout is not a valid parameter in nmcli v0.9.10 Chris
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