Puzzle me this guys … I know you don’t want to really face it but … What do you think programming will look like in 10-15 years?
Here are a couple of facts (which I know some folks are allergic to in this day and age): * The US Dept of Labor has estimated a gross shortage of up to a million or so “programmers” by 2020, based on current needs and technology * While the initial costs of hiring H-1B candidates may be higher, there’s a far larger pool of them to choose from, and the vast majority of them are equivalent to people with graduates at the top of their classes at Stanford, MIT, and CMU. They’re given virtually permanent jobs (until their green cards issue, anyway) and whatever on-the-job training and relocation is needed to keep them useful. In return, they will never badmouth their employer or sue them for anything. * Americans, in turn, are “aging out” of the workforce in their late 30’s and 40’s, and there’s nowhere for them to go. Learning new skills “on the side” sounds good, but given two people of roughly equal skills, one of whom is 18-35 and the other is 45+, the younger person will get hired about 95% of the time. * In my mind, this has one general result: ** American employers are going to do two things: (1) replace general programming tasks for new projects with automated solutions that have shorter lifespans; and (2) they’ll prefer to hire more highly-skilled foreigners on H-1B terms rather than Americans because they act more like the slaves that they are. You guys need to stop paying attention to right-wing talking heads making noise about “anchor babies” and all of that crap. While it sounds bad, it’s like worrying about being struck by lightening on a cloudless day. The numbers involved are infinitesimal in proportion to the total expenditures and budgets. The bottom-line here is, you’re complaining about our immigration laws — the same ones that right-wing talking heads keep saying don’t need to be fixed. Either advocate to fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws, or stop picking at scabs and screaming that they’re causing pain! The common (nonsense) refrain against comprehensive immigration reform is: enforce the EXISTING laws! Ok, great. So what are you complaining about? Oh, wait … there are no provisions in existing laws to fix this crap. So go right ahead and keep on screaming like babies, because until the immigration laws are FIXED, nothing is going to change. It’s also good to realize that Sec. 1706 of the Tax Code, passed in 1985, is perhaps the single greatest ENABLER of everything that’s at work here. It’s not part of immigration laws, although it’s allowing foreigners to leverage the hell out of them. The low wages that foreigners are paid only exist because employers refuse to contract directly with the people they hire. So these slimy job shops hire H-1B people and promise them permanent employment until their green cards issue, and pay them $22/hr for work they’re billing out for ten times that ($200+). Americans don’t stand a chance, because the employers know that these people will never complain, never fail to show up for work, won’t lie, cheat, or steal, and most importantly, they won’t file lawsuits or complaints with NLRB. Looking at Uber, Lyft, Amazon, etc., one thing is perfectly clear: hiring contrators directly is going to land you in court sooner or later over claims they should have been treated as employees instead of contractors — regardless of how many disclaimers and legal forms you have them sign where the workers acknowledge that they’re NOT employees. (Uber alone has reportedly spent over $100M defending dozens of these stupid lawsuits, and they settled the biggest one lately in California for more than that.) So employers in the tech field don’t want to see 1706 repealed either. They’re happy hiring through job shops and not having to deal with these nuisance lawsuits. Suck it up, buttercup! Either lobby to overhaul existing immigration laws and overturn 1706, or just keep whining that foreigners are stealing our jobs. The people who have the greatest say in these matters — the companies that do the hiring — are very happy with things exactly the way they are. All of the “anchor baby” bullshit and costs to taxpayers is of no concern whatsoever to them, because they only want to see LOWER TAXES and FEWER REGULATIONS, which puts a bigger burden on taxpayers, not them. Right-wing talking heads advocate for corporate interests. You’re supporting corporations when you parrot those guys. They don’t care about how their policies affect taxpayers. All they know is, the less taxes they pay, and the fewer lawsuits they have to deal with from their workers, the more profits they make for shareholders. Back to the original question: where will programming be in 10-15 years? It will be faster, easier, more reliable, and won’t involve programmers. Someone will initiate a conversation with Siri (say) and after a while an app will get built. If you need it changed, just tell Siri. No programming will be required. -David Schwartz
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