The problem (as virtually every social scientist will tell you... especially
since they have been searching for such a model for several decades) is that a
significantly accurate model is unlikely do to the dynamic nature of social
interactions. It is similar to what happens in evolution... it is possible to
provide a reasonable (but not perfect, and often controversial) model linking
current structures to the past; however, since arbitrary and random variances
provide the foundation upon which selection acts, it is practically impossible
to determine what future structures will occur. Even that is a gross
oversimplification of the problem, in only one aspect.
Ian Parker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Political Research Associates does not
>criticize conspiracism because we want to shield those with unfair power
and
>privilege; but because we believe that conspiracism impedes attempts to
build a
>social movement for real social justice, economic fairness, equality,
peace,
>and democracy.
There are a number of additional points which I think should be made here.
The first of these is that in dictatorships there is always some basis of
consent, not democracy in the sense of one person one vote but an
acknowledgement that the dicator is better than the alternatives.
Saddam Hussein was a nasty individual, almost your classic conspirator, but
after his removal Pandora's box was opened. My questions are the following.
1) Is Political Research repected in the Pentagon and the corridors of US
power? If it were would it change policy? It seems to me that a lot of
decisions are taken on "gusts of emotion", without any rational analysis.
2) If more information were available. If populations all had the $100
laptop with an uncensored Internet, how would that affect world politics and
culture?
3) If you could produce a realistic model, would anyone be interested.
It seems that the US in Iraq and Afghaniststan wants to spread democracy.
Not an ignoble end in itself, but democracy without a flow of quality
information is not possible. Many people in fact say that with education and
information democracy is inevitable.
There was one thread on "whether we could make a difference". If a model
were to be placed on a computer, that I think would make a difference. To be
realistic we would have to model society in terms of graphs - The erdos
mobel, Erdos numbers.
The Pentagon runs computer models when it wants things like hypersonic
aircraft. It some consultancy produced a human interaction model, they would
no doubt do a number of simulations. Invade Iran, invade the tribal areas of
Pakistan, see what happens on the model. If you are bombing the Iranian
nuclear sites you make a model. Could a political model ever have the same
status?
I believe that if such a model were in the Pentagon generals would be less
gung ho.
- Ian Parker
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
---------------------------------
Boardwalk for $500? In 2007? Ha!
Play Monopoly Here and Now (it's updated for today's economy) at Yahoo! Games.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
