The basic truth is that if there were to be a war the straights of Hormuz would be closed. Oil = $200+. I have reason to believe that the CIA have been investigating pipelines and other alternative export routes for Iran. They have even by spying on the Syrian oil industry and are trying to find out as much as they can about the new refinery to be built near Homs.
The fact that they now say that Iran does NOT intend to develop nuclear weapons implies that they have concluded :- 1) That Hormuz could not be kept open. 2) That the ants in "ant heap" that would result would gravitate to Russia and export via land based pipelines. This is what the CIA assessment really means. - Ian Parker [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
