HEALTH: HIV CRISIS IN MENA COUNTRIES BY 2025, WB WARNS
(By Chiara De Felice) (ANSAmed) - NAPLES, AUGUST 3 - It is not an epidemic yet, but if the HIV virus spreads in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries at the current rate, it will reach 4% of the population in 2015 and will force GDP in the area to dip to 30% in 2025. Despite the fact that there is no good monitoring system of the illness development, the World Bank needs no other data to define as 'catastrophic' the situation, which today is only just starting to emerge. According to the latest study of the institute of Washington on the transmission of HIV and AIDS in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, if alarm levels are not registered today, by 2015 the demographic and economic consequences of the epidemic will be 'substantial', affecting the GDP of the countries of the area from a minimum of 25% (United Arab Emirates) to a maximum of 54% (Tunisia). The countries which will not deal well with the situation will be Egypt, which will lose 51% of its current GDP, and Algeria (41%), while the GDP of all the other countries will decrease by 30%. But what will be the consequences of the spreading of HIV and AIDS on the economy? The World Bank list: productivity of manpower decreases because people fall ill and the capital of qualified employees collapses, because there is no more investment in education due to lack of stimulus for the ill. Moreover, the knowledge transmission from old to new generations is non-existent, considering the fact that the number of orphans increases noticeably and the savings decrease because of the very low incomes and very high expenses per capita. Apart from companies, governments will also suffer from the spread of infection, because they will suffer reduced productivity (the illness tends to spread among public officials, in other words among the lowest classes of the population) and a slackening in the supply of basic services, like education and health services. For now, HIV and AIDS affect only 0.3% of the adult population in the MENA area, but according to the institute of Washington the percentage will reach 4% of the residents by 2015. The countries where the virus is most widespread in the past years are Iran and Tunisia, where there was a 70% rise compared to the previous period. Further down are Lebanon (40%), Algeria and Oman (30%), Bahrain (20%) and Egypt (10%). The acquired immune deficiency has very long periods of manifestation, therefore it is difficult to forecast when the disease will become epidemic. And the calculations are more complicated in the countries where the lack of precise data does not allow for making a detailed map of the spread of the virus. In the MENA area, in fact, the analyses are made only on not completely significant samples of the population, such as prisoners or blood donors or patients suffering from tuberculosis; the monitoring does not include practically all the categories exposed to more risks, that is those who belong to the poorest strata or to the middle class. But according to the World Bank forecasts, if the use of condoms becomes widespread, the productivity of the MENA countries would almost be saved: GDP would rise by 25% in 2025 compared to the current GDP. (ANSAmed). 2007-08-03 18:01 http://www.ansamed.info/en/news/ME03.YAM18003.html [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
