The answer is alarmingly simple. Worse than those uncertainties would be the very certain consequences of an American attack on Iran. Begin with an unwinnable quagmire in a Muslim nation three times the size of Iraq. Then consider a global wave of Islamic rage against America that would make our current diplomatic predicament look like a honeymoon. Add to that the destabilization and likely collapse of unpopular pro-American regimes in places like Egypt, Pakistan and perhaps Saudi Arabia.
Instead of one Islamic republic that threatens to develop a nuclear bomb down the road, we would then face three or four — one of which would be in possession of a fully developed nuclear arsenal from day one.
How compelling is the military option against Iran? Jack Straw, the foreign minister of Great Britain, our most reliable ally, has for months been calling the idea "inconceivable." This week, after the reports of escalating war plans began surfacing, he went a step further and called it "completely nuts." And that's our closest ally.
Another highly respected European foreign minister, speaking last week on condition of anonymity, told a small group of Jewish community leaders in New York that the idea of an American attack on Iran would produce "a catastrophe — an absolute calamity." He was speaking at a convivial dinner party, lubricated with wine and good cheer, until he was asked about the prospect of Iran war. At that point, his face turned white.
"Imagine the current situation in Iraq," the minister said, ticking off the unwinnable quagmire, the collapse of a strategic nation into chaos, the turning of Iraq into an incubator for global terror and growing worldwide rage against America. "Then multiply it by 25, by 30. The implications are almost unimaginable.”
