Sent to you by Sean McBride via Google Reader: The Litvinenko Mystery
Thriller: A Primer of Conspiracy Theories via Edward Jay Epstein's Web
Log by Edward Jay Epstein on Jul 09, 2007 The proliferation of
conspiracy theories deserves a taxonomy
THE FIRST QUESTION: HOW DID LITVINENKO DIE? I. The Poisoned Sushi
Theory
Proponent: Alexander Litvinenko Thesis: Litvinenko had been poisoned by
thallium, a rat poison, in the Itsu Sushi restaurant on November 1
while dining with Mario Scaramella.Selling points:*** Litvinenko had
sharp stomach pains on November 1st after eating Sushi with Mario
ScaramellaDrawbacks:*** It was not Thallium but Polonium 210 that
poisoined Litvinenko*** Litvinenko's Russian associates got
contaminated before Litvinenko got to the Sushi restaurant. Status:
DOAII. The Spiked Tea Theory
Proponent: Scotland Yard
Thesis: Tea served to Litvinenko at the Pine Bar of the Millenium Hotel
on November 1st 2001 was spiked with Polonium 210 by his Russian
associate Andrei Lugovoie.Selling points:*** Witnesses saw Litvinenko
in the Pine Bar with his Russian associates*** A hotel tea pot tested
positive for Polonium 210
*** A November 1st bus ticket (found among Litvinenko's effects) did
not test positive for Polonium 210, suggesting Litvinenko had been
Polonium-free shortly before going to the Pine Bar.
Drawbacks:
*** Polonium 210 is not an efficient assassination weapon. Not only is
it expensive, slow-acting, and difficult to obtain, but it is a
tell-tale poison, traceable back to its source.
*** The tea pot was cycled through a dishwasher for weeks before the
police tested it. It is therefore difficult to fit into a chain of
evidence.
*** The absence of Polonium on a ticket does not really prove that
Litvinenko was free of polonium contamination. It only suggests that it
was not on the hand he used to handle the ticket.
*** The autopsy showed that Litvinenko was exposed to Polonium 210 on
more than one occasion, so there is no way to exclude the possibility
that he contaminated the tea cup in the same way that he contaminated
Mario Scaramella at his next meeting at the Itsu Sushi.
Status: In abeyance awating a British extradition request that has been
turned down.III. The Serial Poisoner Theory
Proponents: autopsy doctors
Thesis: Litvinenko was poisoned twice, first in Mid-October, then
again, at the Pine Bar on November 1st
Selling Point:*** It explains why the post mortem examination shows two
different times Litvinenko was exposed to Polonium 210.
Drawback:*** Polonium can take many weeks, if not months, to kill
someone. So how would a murderer know after only 2 weeks that the first
dose was not effective ?*** If Polonium 210 did not work the first
time, why not use another poison (or a bullet) in the follow-up
assassination attempt. Status: Awaiting release of the Coroner's Report
IV. Accident Theory
Proponent: Vyacheslav Zharko Thesis: Litvinenko had come in contact
with smuggled Polonium 210 and a speck leaked onto his clothes,
possessions or person, and it then fell into his food. According to
Vyacheslav Zharko, a Russian FSB officer who Litvinenko helped recruit
for British intelligence in 2002, Litvinenko "kept telling me that he
needed money badly Possibly, that with the help of [Akhmed] Zakayev and
his other Chechen 'friends' he could have got involved in smuggling of
radioactive materials, and then - by accident or not - received a
lethal dose." Selling Points:*** Historic context: All 5 previously
known deaths from Polonium poisoning, including Irene Curie, were
accidental. See Follow the Polonium
*** Litvinenko was in contact with Polonium 210 long before he entered
the hospital in November. According to one of his associates in Moscow,
material he received from Litvinenko in "the summer" of 2006 proved to
be Polonium-tainted. (The date of the Polonium contamination can be
determined by spectrographic analysis.) In any case, he was certainly
in contact with Polonium 210 in Mid-October.
*** Polonium 210 leaks. In London alone over 100 people were
accidentally contaminated by the Polonium 210 that killed Litvinenko,
including 3 of Litvinenko's associates. Litvinko could have been
contaminated by the same spillage.Drawback: *** It is not probable that
spilled Polonium 210 would get into food or drink.
Retort: Isn't murder by Polonium 210 also improbable?
THE SECOND QUESTION: WHO (IF ANYONE) DID IT? I. Vladimir Putin
Proponent: Marina Litvinenko ("J'Accuse" in Wall Street Journal).
Thesis: Putin personally ordered an agonizing death for Litvinenko.
Selling points:
***- Litvinenko accused Putin on his death bed ***- Putin had a motive
for vengeance: Litvinenko accused Putin of being a pedophile
***- Putin had access to the Sarov facility, where Polonium 210 is
manufactured.Drawback:
***- The leak of Polonium 210 was not necessarily authorized by
President Putin. The security of Russia's nuclear facilities has been
breached many times before. Even nuclear suitcase bombs, have been
stolen out of them and smuggled into the black market. II. KGB Veterans
Proponent: Mario Scaramella
Thesis: A shadowy group of KGB veterans called Dignity and Honor had
a "hit-list" of people targeted for assassination which had been
emailed to Scaramella.Selling point: *** At the Itsu Sushi restaurant
Scaramella told Litvinenko that both he and Litvinenko were on the hit
list .
Drawbacks:
*** Scaramella was never able to produce the putative list.
*** Litvinenko initially suspected Scaramella of being the poisoner.
*** Scaramella is currently in prison on charges of calumny
III. Rogue FSB Agents
Proponent: MI-6 British Intelligence
Thesis: A rogue unit of the FSB, the successor to the KGB, assassinated
Litvinenko without higher authorization. According to the
Guardian: "British officials say the perpetrators were probably former
Russian security agents, or members of a criminal gang linked to them.
They insist there is no evidence of the involvement of the Russian
government.
Selling points:
***- Such revenge assassinations are in the hoary tradition of SMERSH
("Death To Spies And Traitors.") killing defectors
***- Litvinenko was in contact with at least two ex-FSB agents in
London and according to SMERSH logic, there is no such thing as an "ex"
KGB or FSB officer .
***- The FSB had a motive: Litvinenko had accused his former colleague
of blowing up 300 Russian civilians in a series of 1999 bombings.
Drawback:
***- Polonium 210 is traceable: So why would even a rogue unit of the
FSB chance incriminating itself by using Polonium 210 IV. Andrei Lugovoi
Proponent: Sir Ken Macdonald, head of public prosecutions in Britain
Thesis: Lugovoi, a business associate of Litvinenko, slipped Polonium
210 in his tea on November 1st in the Pine Bar of the Millennium Hotel.
Selling points:
*** Lugovoi had an opportunity, as he met Litvinenko on November 1st,
the day he first showed symptoms.
*** Lugovoi had contact with Polonium 210. He, as well as his wife and
children, were contaminated .
*** Lugovoi had known Litvinenko in the KGB
Drawbacks:
*** Lugovoi had visited places, along with Litvinenko, that were
contaminated by Polonium 210, which could explain why he tested
positive. See Follow The Polonium
*** The Pine Bar was crowded with people when Lugovoi briefly met
Litvinenko. As Lugovoi asks, "What kind of idiot poisoner would it take
to act in such a primitive way?"
Status: The British extradition request was denied by the Russian
government.
V. Putin's Enemies
Proponent: Kirill Pankratov in Live Journal
Thesis: Enemies of Putin used Polonium 210 to kill Litvinenko and ghost
a trail that led to Putin.Selling points:
*** Polonium 210 traces back to Russian nuclear reactors. It is
therefore the perfect poison to discredit Putin.*** Polonium 210 is
slow-acting, giving Litvinenko time to denounce Putin. Drawback:***-
Polonium 210 is almost impossible to obtain.
VI. The Oil Barons in or out of Russia
Proponent: ex-KGB agent Yuri Shvets
Thesis: Litvinenko had to be silenced because he had a dossier on key
members of the new Russian nomenclature that stole the oil giant Yukos.
Selling Points:
*** Litvinenko traveled to Israel in October 2006 where it is alleged
that he gave information regarding Yukos to Leonid Nevzlin, the former
deputy head of Yukos relating to the deaths of former Yukos workers and
the imprisonment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.*** Tens of billions of
dollars are at stake
Drawback:
***- The Polonium 210 did not silence Litvinenko. He lived at least 3
weeks after he was poisoned and no dossier emerged.VII. British 007
Types
Proponent: Andrei Lugovoi
Thesis: Litvinenko was working for MI-6 involved in an espionage
operation, along with Berezovsky. He was killed by the British agents
when the game got out of control.
Selling Point:
***- Lugovoi claims Litvinenko was offering him money and spy equipment
to cooperate in the game. ***- Vyacheslav Zharko, the Russian FSB
officer who admitted working for British intelligence between 2003 and
2007, said that Litvinenko and Berezovsky set up his meetings with four
British MI6 officers, "This is a long story [of recruitment] and
Berezovsky along with the late Litvinenko played the lead roles in it,"
Zharko. said in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda. "Alexander
[Litvinenko] introduced me in turn to a certain Martin Flint, and two
more people, who offered me to render them consulting services." If so,
Litvinko had been acting as an access agent for MI6 who used consulting
service contracts as bait to snare Russian intelligence officers into
intelligence traps .
Drawback:
*** British intelligence had no motive to kill Litvinenko.VIII.
No-One-Did It
See Accident theory (Above) THE THIRD (AND BIG) QUESTION: WHY WAS
POLONIUM 210 SMUGGLED INTO LONDON?
I. Murder Weapon Theory
Proponent: Boris Berezovsky
Thesis: Polonium 210 was smuggled to London from Russia to kill
Litvinenko.
Selling point:
***- Litvineko was fatally contaminated by Polonium 210
Drawbacks:
***- Polonium 210 is, if not priceless, extremely expensive. Why not
use a cheaper poison?*** Polonium 210 is an inefficient, way to kill
someone. It takes weeks, if not months, to kill. Litvinenko lived-- and
talked-- for nearly a month.
***- Polonium 210 leaves a trail. Why not use an untraceable poison (or
a bullet)?Retort: His killers wanted him to suffer a painful, lingering
death.Counter-retort: There are cheaper radioactive poisons available
in London, such as radium and stronium 90.II. The Nuclear Black Market
Theory
Thesis: Polonium 210 was smuggled into London to facilitate a lucrative
black market deal with a rogue country, such as Iran, Syria, or North
Korea. Polonium 210 is one of the three ingredients needed to build a
clandestine nuclear bomb. The other two are a fissile fuel, such as
U-235 and Beryllium (which is used in stereo speakers). The Polonium
210 initiates the neutron generators (see diagram above) which sets off
the chain reaction.
Selling point:*** Iran's putative interest in Polonium 210 in the early
1990s raised US suspicions Iran had a nuclear weapons program underway.
Despite reports that Iran was experimenting with it in its Center for
New Technology, IAEA inspectors found no evidence that Iran was
producing it in its own nuclear reactor. If so, it could have been
using smuggled Polonium 210 from Russia that could not be traced back
to its equipment.
Drawback: *** Polonium 210 has a short half-life of 138.3 days, so a
rogue nation would need a renewable supply.
Retort: That would be a great business for smugglers.III. The Dirty
Bomb Theory
Proponent: A.J. Strata author of the Strata-Sphere blog
Thesis: Polonium 210 was smuggled into London to provide the
radioactive fuel for a so-called dirty bomb. Since it aerosolizes at 55
degrees Centigrade it would contaminate a wide area. In addition to
Polonium 210, all that would be needed by the terrorists would be a
conventional explosive, such as TNT.
Selling Points:
***- The alpha particles it emits are far less detectable than the
gamma particles of other radioactive isotopes, which means the bomb
would be far more difficult to detect.
***- British communication intelligence GCHQ intercepted a phone call
from Peshawar GCHQ indicating that Al Qaida was actively seeking
polonium and Al Qaeda had offered millions of dollars to anyone that
could supply them with it.***- The US imprisoned Jose Padilla on
suspicion that he was attempting to build a dirty bomb for Al Qaeda.
***- In 1995, Chechen terrorists experimented with a dirty bomb with
the radioactive isotope Cesium-137 , burying it under some leaves in
Izmailovsky Park in Moscow and tipping off television reporters. It was
quickly found since its gamma rays were easily detected. Polonium 210
would solve that detection problem.Drawback:*** Litvinenko and his
associates had no known monetary dealings with terrorist groups.
Retort: Litvinenko, who had converted to Islam, was, according to the
Chechen website, declared a martyr by the rebel government of Chechnya
after his death.
IV. The Bona Fides Theory
Thesis: A sample of Polonium 210 was brought to London by a Russian
agent offering his services to British intelligence as proof of his
bona fides. Selling points:*** A Polonium 210 sample would demonstrate
that an agent had access to a Russian nuclear reactor since only four
facilities are licensed to handle Polonium 210 in Russia. ( Moscow
State University; Techsnabexport, the state-controlled uranium export
agency; the Federal Nuclear Center in Samara; and Nuclon, a private
company.) As all these licensees are controlled by the Russian
government, obtaining Polonium 210 would show that the agent had
successfully bribed, blackmailed or otherwise compromised a person in
the Russian nuclear industry.*** Both Lugovoi and Zharko claim that
Litvinenko acted as an access agent for the British intelligence
service MI-6
*** Litvinenko contacted other Russians with connections to the FSB
including Dimitry Kovton and Vyacheslav Sokolenko,
Drawback:If British intelligence knew about such an intelligence game,
why would it risk exposing by extraditing of Lugovoi.
Retort: MI-6 knew extradition request would be rejected.V. The
Disinformation Theory
Proponent: Vladimir Putin
Thesis: The Polonium 210 was smuggled to London by an anti Putin cabal
to ghost a radioactive trail that would make it appear that Russia was
supplying nuclear bomb components to rogue states.
Selling point:*** Many of the exiles in touch with Litvinenko in
London, including Berezovsky, were dedicated to discrediting the Putin
regime in Russia. Berezovsky, who is currently being tried in absentia
in Moscow for fraud, has openly declared war on Putin, saying in an
interview with the Guardian: "it isn't possible to change this [Putin]
regime through democratic means." Disinformation could be an a weapon
in this war.
Drawback:*** The Cabal had no access to Polonium-210.
Retort: You can buy anything in Russia.
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