http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/is-this-a-new-war-on-terror-111022_full.html#.VBjwxkuBvFw



Is This a New War on Terror?





Barack Obama entered the White House vowing to end the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan and transformed his predecessor’s “global war on terror” from a
sweeping boots-on-the ground effort to a targeted-killing operation, with
drones and small teams of Special Forces leading the way. But with his
decision to authorize a new military campaign against Islamic State
militants rampaging across Iraq and Syria—and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey’s statement today that he might eventually ask
the president to send ground troops to the region—Obama, whether he likes
it or not, seems to be hewing closer to George W. Bush’s broader
anti-terror strategy.



The president himself initially called the mission a “counterterrorism
campaign,” which Secretary of State John Kerry echoed last week, insisting
that the United States is not fighting a “war” with the Islamic State (also
known as ISIL) but instead is engaged in a “major counterterrorism
operation.” But in the days since, the administration seems to have changed
its tack, with White House press secretary Josh Earnest and Defense
Secretary Chuck Hagel declaring that the United States is “at war with
ISIL” just as it is “at war with al Qaeda.”



So how should we think about America’s campaign against ISIL? Is it a new
“war on terror”—or even a “war” at all? We asked top defense and
intelligence thinkers to weigh in.

***



A war. Full stop.



By Michael Chertoff



If this isn’t war, what is? And that’s as it should be.



As I understand the Obama administration’s new strategy, among other
things, the United States will engage in lethal air strikes against ISIL
leaders and fighters, acting in some instances in support of allied ground
troops—including Iraqis and Kurds—with the aim of dislodging, degrading and
destroying an enemy. While we will not put large massed infantry in the
fight, our rules of engagement will be set by the laws of war, and the
president will be invoking his commander in chief authorities. Indeed, if
this is not war, then we will be seriously circumscribed in the kinetic
activities we can undertake.



Although the enemy does not possess the instruments of a real state, no
matter how ISIL describes itself, that does not take us out of the category
of warfare. Historically, wars have included insurgencies, guerrilla
conflicts and revolution. ISIL has ousted the Iraqi government from part of
its territory and avows its intent to overthrow legitimate governments
throughout the region. Fighting back easily fits within the historical
construct of warfare.



If some of our leaders seek to minimize the risks of the new strategy by
characterizing it euphemistically, they are making a mistake. We need to be
completely candid about the seriousness of this endeavor and the fact that
we will need to see it through to success—the degradation and destruction
of an evil enemy. Temporizing about this effort only shakes the confidence
of our allies in our commitment. Worse, it leaves the American people
unprepared for the scope of the challenge that lies ahead. Remember, as
well, that our enemy also has a say in how this goes, and we should expect
that they will try hard to strike back at us, which might further escalate
the conflict.



I think the president is taking steps in the right direction, but to
maintain support for the long haul, we will need to be unflinching about
what we are doing—waging war.



Michael Chertoff, executive chairman and co-founder of The Chertoff Group,
was secretary the Department of Homeland Security from 2005 to 2009.



***



A hostage crisis, too.



By Bruce Riedel



Al Qaeda declared war on America in 1998 with a fatwa signed by Osama bin
Laden, and since then, the United States has been in multiple interrelated
wars with al Qaeda and its allies and offshoots. The enemy has demonstrated
remarkable resilience and adaptability. For example, three different
leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor of today’s Islamic State, were
killed by U.S. forces, yet the group has not only survived but thrived.
Franchises and offshoots have repeatedly shown a capacity to regenerate
after major setbacks. (We should expect the same in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as we depart by next year.)



Now, the group calling itself the Islamic State poses a number of
challenges for the United States, including potential threats to the
homeland in the future, an immediate regional and ideological threat and an
insurgent threat.



Importantly, ISIL is also a hostage challenge. In general, the American
people want hostages rescued, not grand strategic plans that take years to
succeed. But some 35 years ago, two presidents—Jimmy Carter and Ronald
Reagan—found it extremely difficult to handle hostage-taking. Carter lost
his bid for reelection in 1980 with Desert One, his failed mission to end
the Iran hostage crisis, and Ronald Reagan foolishly traded arms for
American hostages held in Lebanon by Iran-backed Hezbollah and narrowly
escaped impeachment. Both presidencies became consumed with hostage crises.



The United States has not confronted as significant a
hostage/counterterrorism problem as ISIL since 1991. That year, George H.
W. Bush found a winning strategy because he had something to give Iran and
Hezbollah (blaming Iraqi President Saddam Hussein for starting the
Iran-Iraq War after it was long over) and because Hussein had inadvertently
freed Shia captives in Kuwait, for whom Hezbollah wanted to trade hostages.
President Obama has no such negotiating options. He has also learned that
hostage rescue missions are almost always long shots.



ISIL’s next move is probably to seize more hostages while it continues to
execute those it already holds—including more than 40 Turkish hostages the
group is using to keep Ankara sidelined in the regional war and at least
four remaining American and British hostages. And it can easily acquire
more. The American public is likely to find a disconnect between a
three-year or longer strategic response and images of horror that will
continue on the nightly news.



It could easily get worse. Al Qaeda’s old core in Pakistan has one American
hostage (completely forgotten by the media) and could easily take more in
Pakistan. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, based in Northern Africa, is
basically a kidnap/extortion machine but has avoided Americans until now.
That could change. And al Qaeda’s offshoot in Egypt is well-placed to take
tourists hostage and has already beheaded captives. To add to the horror,
ISIL cynically uses the symbols of the Guantánamo Bay detention
camp—waterboarding and orange jump suits—to signal to its own constituency
why the group takes and kills innocent journalists and aid workers: for
revenge. No doubt ISIL hopes this will incite copycat violence in the West.



Obama could face two-plus years of hostage-taking and executions that seem
to underscore the limits of American power. It will be easy for critics to
charge him as weak and ineffective without, of course, providing a policy
that stops hostage-taking. He says we need to fight smarter against our
enemy. The president has that right.



Bruce Riedel, senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence
Project at the Brookings Institution, served for 30 years in the CIA.



An “armed conflict”—not unlike Bush’s.



By John B. Bellinger III



Both the Bush and Obama administrations have wrestled with the proper
political nomenclature for the U.S. conflict with al Qaeda and other
terrorist groups, most recently ISIL. As a matter of international law,
however, both administrations have treated the U.S. confrontation with al
Qaeda and associated groups as an “armed conflict,” and the Obama
administration is very likely to do the same with ISIL.



President George W. Bush referred to U.S. policy toward al Qaeda and other
terrorist groups as the “global war on terror.” Critics ridiculed the term
and accused the Bush administration of waging war on all terrorist groups
everywhere in the world. But as I explained in a 2006 address in London,
the phrase was not a legal statement but a political expression, intended
to mean that all countries must strongly oppose terrorism in all its forms,
everywhere around the globe. As a legal matter, the Bush administration
considered the United States to be in an armed conflict specifically with
al Qaeda and associated groups.



The Obama administration, while dropping the “global war on terror” phrase,
has reaffirmed that the United States remains in a global armed conflict
with al Qaeda and its affiliates. This has been the international legal
basis for continued detention of detainees in Guantánamo and Afghanistan
and for nearly 400 drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.



With respect to ISIL, the Obama administration appears to be internally
conflicted for political reasons. Having ended the U.S. “wars” in Iraq and
Afghanistan, President Obama has wanted to declare an end to the “perpetual
war” with terrorists and certainly does not want to declare the start of a
new “war” in Iraq. But he also wants to demonstrate that he takes the
threat posed by ISIL seriously (which might explain why administration
officials have shifted to using the “war” terminology).



More important, in order to justify the use of military force against ISIL
in Iraq and, especially in Syria, in the absence of an imminent threat of
attack by ISIL against the United States, the administration likely will
want to treat the U.S. conflict with ISIL as part of its ongoing armed
conflict with al Qaeda and associated groups. Under international law, the
Unite States may not use force in the territory of another country unless
the government of that country has consented; or to defend against an
attack or the threat of an imminent attack against the United States or its
allies; or unless the use of force is part of an ongoing armed conflict.



John B. Bellinger III, partner at Arnold & Porter and adjunct senior fellow
in international and national security law at the Council on Foreign
Relations, served as legal adviser to the State Department from 2005-2009
and legal adviser to the National Security Council from 2001-2005.



***



Not a war on terror, a war on an ideology.



By Jane Harman



“War on terror” was always a misnomer. Terror is not our enemy; it’s a
tactic. Unfortunately, by framing our actions in a linguistically sloppy
way, we’ve hurt our narrative with several important groups. First, Muslims
who think that we’re at war with them. Second, many around the globe who
think—rightly—that playing whack-a-mole will never persuade the kid in the
boonies of Yemen not to strap on a suicide vest.



So how to unpack the problem?



Let’s separate named groups (our “war with al Qaeda”) from ideologies.
Degrading organizations is the relatively easy part, something the United
States has been doing with substantial success throughout the presidencies
of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. In this regard, it isn’t surprising
that the campaign the president wants to pursue against ISIL looks like the
campaigns underway against al-Shabaab and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.



What’s much more challenging is to confront—and defuse—the ideologies that
underpin these groups. The jargon for this is “countering violent
extremism” (CVE), a crucial part of the strategy that’s underfunded and
hard as all get-out to accomplish. If we lump both al Qaeda and ISIL into
one bucket labeled “terror,” we’ll never pull it off.



An example: The State Department recently put out an exceptionally violent
video that used some of ISIL’s own promotional materials. The point was to
highlight that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s thugs kill Muslims—which is an
important point to make. Osama Bin Laden cautioned ISIL’s ancestor, al
Qaeda in Iraq, that its slaughter of fellow Muslims made for bad optics.
But what might have worked against al Qaeda won’t necessarily work against
this new enemy. ISIL glamourizes violence, the notion that its caliphate is
worth dying and killing for. The group celebrates death. We need to
undermine that pitch with a positive narrative, not amplify its negatives.



The moniker “war on terror” needs to be retired, and replaced by a nuanced
strategy aimed at that kid in Yemen I mentioned above. ISIL’s Baghdadi has
found a message with staying power. Let’s develop a counter-narrative with
even greater force.



***



Not just a war—a limitless one.



By Jameel Jaffer



It’s strange to think of it now, but when Congress authorized President
George W. Bush to use military force in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks, the authorization was meant to be a limited one. The
Bush administration wanted a more sweeping resolution—one that would allow
the use of military force against any group, anywhere, that the president
believed was planning terrorist attacks against the United States. But some
in Congress believed it would be reckless to give the executive branch such
boundless authority, and the language that Congress ultimately settled on
was narrower: It authorized the use of military force only against groups
connected in some way to the 9/11 attacks.



As it’s turned out, the language of the 2001 resolution hasn’t actually
been very limiting. Quite the opposite. The government’s lawyers cited
Congress’s 2001 resolution to justify dragnet surveillance programs. They
cited it to justify the imprisonment without charge or trial of an American
citizen seized at Chicago’s O’Hare airport. They cited it to justify the
torture of prisoners in CIA black sites and the targeted killing of an
American citizen in Yemen. They cited it to justify the use of military
force in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia, and now they are citing it to
justify a new war in Iraq and Syria. The use-of-force authorization has
turned out to be as broad as the government’s lawyers have been creative.



At least as troubling as what the executive branch is doing, though, is
what Congress and the courts are not doing. In theory, Congress decides
when the country goes to war, and against whom. In theory, the courts
ensure that the president doesn’t exceed the authority that Congress and
the Constitution have given him. But in reality, Congress and the courts
have abdicated their responsibilities. Unless that changes, the only real
limits on the executive’s authority to wage war will be the limits that the
president and his lawyers decide, in their discretion, to recognize.



Jameel Jaffer is deputy legal director of the ACLU.



A war by any other name.



By David Cole



President Obama has steadfastly avoided the term, but the offensive he has
announced against ISIL is a war by any other name. President Harry Truman
similarly called the Korean War a “police action,” but we now know the
truth. That memorial on the Mall isn’t called the Korean Police Action
memorial. A long-term military offensive in another sovereign’s territory,
the objective of which is to “destroy” the enemy, is a war.



Obama assures us that we aren’t sending in ground troops, and the only
American personnel on the ground will be there to train, not to fight. But
a proxy war is no less a war. And an aerial bombing campaign is no less a
war than a charge of the cavalry.



Not long ago, if the United States felt threatened by a group of 10,000 to
20,000 men in a foreign country thousands of miles away, it would have two
basic choices: (1) support the host nation in addressing the threat; or (2)
if that nation was unwilling or unable, send American troops and invade.
The latter option is obviously very costly, both politically and in terms
of American lives. Today, technological advances have enabled us to choose
the military option without jeopardizing American lives. Drone technology
in particular has radically reduced the costs of resorting to force.



But the fact that military responses have become less costly creates a
risk, namely that we will not reserve military force for a last resort.
This only makes it all the more important the limits imposed by
constitutional and international law, both of which seek to ensure that
military force is reserved for the most serious situations. The
Constitution requires that Congress, not the president, authorize war; the
framers’ aim was to clog, not facilitate, war. And the United Nations
Charter requires nations to obtain Security Council approval before using
force in another’s territory without its assent, absent a truly imminent
threat giving rise to the need for self-defense. Neither Congress nor the
Security Council has authorized the president’s war. Unless they do so,
Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, will be guilty of launching an illegal
war.



David Cole is the Hon. George J. Mitchell professor in law and public
policy at Georgetown University Law Center.



***



An ongoing counterterrorism mission.



By Paul R. Pillar



“War on terror” always was a misleading and unhelpful term. Terrorism is a
tactic; to declare a “war” on it makes as much sense as declaring a war on
cavalry charges or airborne assaults. Because real wars have identifiable
enemies in the form of specific groups or states, application of the war
metaphor to counterterrorism has fostered the mistaken idea that curbing
terrorism is all a matter of destroying certain groups, their leaders and
their fighters. That notion runs aground on the complex reality of
shape-shifting, metastasizing groups. We have killed the leader of al Qaeda
and many of its fighters, but now we are worried about one of that group’s
progeny, ISIL.



The war metaphor has tended to equate counterterrorism with the use of
military force, even though such force always has been only one of several
counterterrorist tools. The United States actually uses several other tools
as well, such as diplomacy and defensive security measures. The part of any
terrorist group’s activity that ought to worry us the most, epitomized by
the preparation of a terrorist plot in an apartment in a Western city,
typically presents few if any good military targets.



The surge of alarm about ISIL has quickly gotten the American public and
American politicians to think in terms of a resumed “war on terror,” even
without the current administration encouraging them to do so. The aftermath
of 9/11 conditioned the public to think in such terms. Names matter, even
if it is not so much the term itself but associated concepts that dominate
public discourse and thinking. To the extent that efforts to curb the
expansion of ISIS are thought of as War on Terror II, this has unfortunate
effects, including the mistaken belief that seizure of territory in the
Middle East constitutes a terrorist threat to the United States, and
insensitivity to counterproductive effects of the use of military force.



The Obama administration isn’t calling its effort War on Terror II, because
it does not want to be seen as copying the approach and the mistakes of its
predecessor. Whatever the administration’s motives, eschewing the war
metaphor is good for public understanding. What the United States is doing
against ISIL is a continuation—albeit more intensively for right now,
because of the public alarm—of counterterrorism that has been going on for
a long time and, unlike wars, will not end.



Paul R. Pillar, nonresident senior fellow in the Center for Security
Studies at Georgetown University, served for 28 years in the U.S.
intelligence community.



***



A counterterrorism mission—and then some.



By J.M. Berger and Jessica Stern



When the Obama administration sends mixed messages about whether its
campaign against the Islamic State insurgent group is war or
counterterrorism, there is a reason, if not a good one. As explained by
President Obama last week, the United States plans to employ
counterterrorism tactics against a standing army currently preoccupied with
waging war.



In many ways, our confrontation with the Islamic State is the culmination
of 13 years of degraded definitions. Our enemies have evolved considerably
since Sept. 11, 2001, and none more than ISIL, which has shed both the name
and the sympathies of al Qaeda. The Islamic State excels at communication,
and it has succeeded in establishing itself as a uniquely visible avatar of
evil that demands a response.



But on 9/11, we began a “war on terrorism” that has proven every bit as
expansive and ambiguous as the phrase itself implies. It is a symptom of
our broken political system that we require the frame of terrorism and the
tone of apocalyptic crisis to take even limited action as a government.



Ultimately, it’s hard to escape the feeling that our policies still come
from the gut, rather than the head. And ISIL knows exactly how to deliver a
punch to the gut, as evidenced by its gruesome hostage beheadings and
countless other atrocities. Its brutality and open taunts represent an
invitation to war, and many sober strategists now speak of “destroying” the
organization.



Bin Laden once said, “All that we have to do is to send two mujahideen to
the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al
Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there.” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the
emir of ISIL, may be counting on just that response, and for the same
reason—to draw the United States into a war of supreme costs, political,
economic and human.



A limited counterterrorism campaign may insulate us from those costs, but
it is not likely to be sufficient to accomplish the goals laid out by the
president. ISIL is a different enemy from al Qaeda. It has not earned
statehood, but it is an army and a culture, and more than a traditional
terrorist organization. Limited measures are unlikely to destroy it and
might not be enough to end its genocidal ambitions. Our stated goals do not
match our intended methods. Something has to give—and it’s probably the
goals.



J.M. Berger, author of Jihad Joe: Americans Who go to War in the Name of
Islam, is an analyst studying extremism and editor of Intelwire.com.
Jessica Stern, author of Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants
Kill, is lecturer on terrorism at Harvard University and a member of the
Hoover Institution Task Force on National Security and Law.



A bigger commitment than Obama might realize.



By Will McCants



American presidents walk a tightrope when they announce major military
action to protect America’s allies—action that is often necessary for a
superpower. They must reassure their allies with bellicose language while
persuading a skeptical American public, usually wary of involving its
country in “someone else’s war.” President Obama chose to walk the
tightrope last week by framing our military aid to our Middle Eastern
allies against the Islamic State as a “counterterrorism” campaign.



Rhetorically, the counterterrorism framework appeals because the American
public supports military action against Islamist terrorist groups,
especially those that espouse al Qaeda’s worldview. Counterterrorism also
implies something less than an all-out invasion, which the American public
will not tolerate.



But the problem with the counterterrorism framework for dealing with ISIL
is that it is incommensurate with the president’s stated objectives. Obama
has pledged to “destroy” ISIL, which—despite the president’s statement to
the contrary—is an irregular army and not a clandestine terrorist
organization. The president’s version of counterterrorism—air strikes,
Special Forces raids and advising, and military assistance to friendly
governments—degrades insurgent groups, but it does not destroy them. The
president’s own examples of al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen and al-Shabaab in
Somalia—both alive but crippled by U.S. counterterrorism efforts—proves the
point. Degrading insurgent groups from afar is difficult but realistic and
achievable; destroying them is far harder, as we discovered in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The fact that the home base of ISIL is in Syria, where we do
not have a friendly government to work with or capable proxies, raises the
bar for success much higher.



The positive public response to the president’s speech means he
successfully walked the rhetorical tightrope last week. But there will be
no net to catch him next time, when the public predictably tires of
fighting on behalf of our allies to reach an impossible goal.



Will McCants, director of the Brookings Institution’s Project on U.S.
Relations with the Islamic World and founder and co-editor of the website
Jihadica, served as a State Department senior adviser for countering
violent extremism from 2009 to 2011.



***



Another example of Obama’s light-footprint strategy.



By Seth G. Jones



President Obama’s campaign against Islamic State militants in Iraq and
Syria marks a notable strategic shift in the conduct of warfare against
terrorists and insurgents. It eschews the use of overwhelming force and
embraces a light-footprint strategy that relies on precision strikes from
U.S. aircraft, clandestine ground units and local allies.



In Iraq and Afghanistan, the Bush administration adopted a strikingly
different strategy, which was heavily influenced by such individuals as
Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Col. John Nagl. It involved the deployment of
large numbers of American and other international forces to help local
governments win the support of the population and secure key territory.



Along these lines, the 2007 U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency
Field Manual advocated that 20 to 25 counterinsurgents for every 1,000
residents were often necessary to defeat insurgents and terrorists, with
international soldiers comprising a significant portion of the force.



Based on this strategy, the Bush administration surged U.S. forces into
Iraq beginning around 2007, with some success. The nascent Obama
administration continued this strategy in Afghanistan in 2009, supporting a
surge of U.S. forces. But administration officials quickly changed course,
critiquing the large-footprint strategy as too costly in an era of fiscal
restraint, unpopular among a public tired of U.S. casualties and largely
unsuccessful.



Perhaps the decisive break came in 2011, when Obama supported the overthrow
of the Qaddafi government in Libya by relying on precision munitions,
covert ground units and local Libyan allies. To be clear, this was not a
new way of war, but typified 20th-century mid-intensity conflict. It hinges
on the use of well-directed fires with skilled ground maneuver units that
can exploit their effects and overwhelm the surviving insurgents and
terrorists.



Today, the Obama administration is pursuing this strategy in Iraq and
Syria, relying on U.S. airpower, CIA and special operations units, and
local forces—not Americans—against the Islamic State. As Obama remarked
last week, “American power can make a decisive difference, but we cannot do
for Iraqis what they must do for themselves.”



This strategy is less costly in American blood and treasure. But it also
has several risks. First, success hinges on the quality of local forces,
which are shaky and divided—at best—in Iraq. The picture is notably worse
in Syria. Second, it requires the resolution of deep political grievances.
In Iraq, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi has an important window of
opportunity to reconcile with Iraq’s aggrieved Sunni population. This is no
small feat.



Obama’s strategy against insurgents and terrorists might be leaner than his
predecessor’s strategy. But stay tuned for whether it is any more
successful.



Seth G. Jones is director of the International Security and Defense Policy
Center at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins
University’s School for Advanced International Studies.



***



A new kind of war on terror.



By Mia Bloom



What will it take to destroy ISIL? This (re)newed war on terror might
appear to be similar to George Bush’s “global war on terror,” but in many
significant ways, this president has learned from his predecessor’s
mistakes. President Obama’s strategy to fight ISIL with a broad
international coalition drawn from the region of both Sunni states and Iran
may be the only viable strategy. In essence, the president understands that
while a handful of high-profile casualties have been Westerners, it is the
neighboring countries in the Middle East that are most at risk from this
scourge. To quote British Prime Minister David Cameron, “They are not
Muslims, they are monsters,” and they are a threat to Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Jordan and the Gulf. Of the 17,891 deaths from terrorism last year, only 19
were Americans.



The president has vowed to hunt down terrorists “who threaten our country,
wherever they are,” but has insisted that American troops will play only
support roles. This is a core principle of President Obama’s presidency:
“If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven.”



U.S. airpower alone might be necessary but insufficient to fully succeed,
and the president and his chiefs of staff have mooted any American boots on
the ground. Al Qaeda is recruiting European militants in Syria to shoot
down American planes, and ISIL managed to shoot down a Syrian plane just
today, so even airpower alone has its dangers. A strategy to help the Kurds
and the Sunni tribes combat ISIL is prudent, but finding moderate militants
(an oxymoron?) in Syria will be an arduous challenge. The Arab league has
voted that it must maintain a united front against ISIL both politically
and militarily. But it remains an open question whether the Arab states can
fend off the threat of ISIL without the support of other regional super
powers like Turkey and. although likely unpalatable, Israel. What the
United States must avoid is getting into bed with Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, who is responsible for massacring tens of thousands of civilians.
No moderate opposition, let alone the generations to come, will view a deal
with the devil as expedient, and the long-term damage to America’s
reputation and regional alliances will be impossible to repair.



Mia Bloom is professor of security studies at University of Massachusetts,
Lowell. Follow her @miambloom.












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