http://jewishworldreview.com/0914/Outside_Factors_May_Put_the_Kabosh_on_Obama_ISIS_Plan.php3



Outside Factors May Put the Kabosh on Obama's ISIS Plan

September 15, 2014

Erin Banco

[image: http://license.icopyright.net/assetContent.act?id=10156763]

Followers of the Shiite Houthi group attend a gathering at the group's camp
near Sanaa Sept. 10. Yemeni soldiers traded gunfire with Shiite Muslim
rebels near a military base at the southern entrance to the capital Sanaa
Tuesday, residents said, hours after soldiers killed at least four Shiite
protesters outside the cabinet building.Reuters/Khaled Abdullah

As the U.S. and other Western governments ramp up efforts to form an
international coalition to fight the Islamic State
<http://www.ibtimes.com/what-obama-means-when-he-says-he-wants-degrade-destroy-isis-1684454>,
another crisis is brewing in the Middle East: Al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula is trying to gain back both the influence and the territory it
once held in the region, particularly in Yemen.

As Yemen falls deeper into political strife and warring militias fight for
power, Al Qaeda has found an avenue into the capital itself. The Wall
Street Journal reported
<http://online.wsj.com/articles/al-qaeda-militants-flow-into-yemens-capital-1410737916>Sunday
more than 60 Al Qaeda fighters had made their way into Sanaa in the past
several weeks, taking advantage of the country’s current state of chaos.

“Terrorists love power vacuums -- they gain traction there,” said Max
Abrahms, a terrorism researcher and professor at Northeastern University.

For more than a decade the U.S. has fought al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula, both covertly and openly, in countries across the Middle East,
but most prominently in Yemen. The offshoot of al Qaeda is one of the most
destructive and effective groups operating under the main leadership.

In Yemen, the U.S. campaign included CIA drone strikes on al Qaeda targets,
a model that is going to serve as the basis for the strategy behind taking
out ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Obama said in a speech last week.

But the resurgence of al Qaeda in Yemen proves a strategy of attacks from
the air and special forces raids does not necessarily work in eradicating a
terrorist group entrenched in a territory.

The latest violence that threatens to plunge Yemen further into turmoil
that would benefit al Qaeda happened earlier this month when authorities
shot into a crowd of Shiite Muslim protesters. A Human Rights Watch report
<http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/09/14/yemen-lethal-force-against-houthi-protesters>published
Sunday said at least eight people were killed and 67 wounded on Sept. 7 and
9 when the Houthis, a Shiite resistance group, demonstrated in the capital.
They were protesting the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi,
who took office in February 2012 after Ali Adbdallah Saleh was ousted by
mass demonstrations.

The clashes in Sanaa
<http://www.ibtimes.com/al-qaeda-suicide-bomb-attacks-kill-six-soldiers-yemen-1674762>
came after months of fighting between the Houthis and the Yemeni military
and other armed groups in the northern part of the country, which has
created an opportunity for al Qaeda to gain ground, Abrahms said.

Obama said in his speech last week
<https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ibtimes.com%2Fpresident-obama-isis-speech-full-text-1685184&ei=PhwXVM3bFKLisASmgYLoCQ&usg=AFQjCNGRelCWDcu4tREdrHr5lDDOgTiiFg&sig2=19EKaWIBwLqMkc9qqreSrg&bvm=bv.75097201,d.aWw>
his
counterterrorism strategy to fight ISIS would “be waged through a steady,
relentless effort to take out ISIL [the administration's name for ISIS]
wherever they exist, using our air power and our support for partner forces
on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us,
while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have
successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years."

Yet al Qaeda is still present in Yemen and is growing. An al Qaeda
affiliate group, Ansar al-Shariah, killed six soldiers in Yemen at the end
of August, announcing on Twitter the deaths marked the start of a
"widespread campaign" in the country. The attacks were among the deadliest
and most coordinated in southern Yemen since the army launched a campaign,
earlier this year, to rid Abyan and Shabwa provinces of al Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula militants.

The threat is not limited to the region.

"Our nation faces a serious threat from these groups, particularly from
those based in Yemen, home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," then-CIA
Director David Petraeus
<https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cia.gov%2Fnews-information%2Fspeeches-testimony%2Fspeeches-testimony-archive-2011%2Fstatement-on-the-terrorist-threat-after-9-11.html&ei=NxkXVMuFO4iVjAL8lIHgCQ&usg=AFQjCNFWwrk3honn8cyH77JHGq_KW6KhUg&sig2=Fn_pUG0YiShmqlnkuo-iIg&bvm=bv.75097201,d.cGE>
told
Congress in 2011. "As al Qaeda’s core has been weakened, the initiative has
been shifting somewhat to al Qaeda’s affiliates and sympathizers outside
South Asia."

The threat may become worse now also because al Qaeda, including the
faction in Yemen, may try to compete with ISIS, Abrahms said. "The rise of
ISIS incentivizes al Qaeda affiliates to perform a massive attack," he
said. "Violence is a good way to outbid rival organizations and recruits."




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