Sorta, but my thief doesn't want to change the world. On Nov 4, 9:36 am, Hollywood <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Ramakazee, > > Yes, and if the Democrats fuck it up as badly as the Republicans have > for the last 8 years in 2012 you will see me here screaming for their > blood and supporting the Republicans. BOTH parties are full of self- > serving liars and thieves and neither should EVER be allowed to have > too much power and/or hold onto it for too long. > > On Nov 4, 8:03 am, Kamakazee <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > I guess I'm just a "glass is half full" kinda guy. > > > The Reps have brought this on themselves. They had it all. They lost > > it all. > > > That being said, where do they go from here? Who are the leaders > > waiting in the wings? I'm up on my tippy toes and I don't see > > any...... > > > As far as I'm concerned the prep for 2012 begins today at apprx 8p > > CST, at least the groundwork. > > > And I can't run. I'm too busy suing widders and orphans. > > > On Nov 4, 7:55 am, Cold Water <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Cold comfort my dear Kamakzee. > > > > CW > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Kamakazee" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > To: "PoliticalForum" <PoliticalForum@googlegroups.com> > > > Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 08:44 > > > Subject: Re: READING THE EXIT POLLS > > > > And we ran a really crappy campaign. This was ours to lose. > > > > And we lost it. Sorry. > > > > PS. Just think of what shape we'll be in 2012 when the country hates > > > Obama and Congress as much as it does Bush now!! > > > > On Nov 4, 7:10 am, Cold Water <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS > > > > BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER > > > > Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET > > > > > As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do > > > > leak > > > > early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even > > > > the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern. > > > > > However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own > > > > post-election > > > > study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the > > > > Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to > > > > judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a > > > > representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of > > > > counties and precincts in a state. > > > > > Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts > > > > being leaked: > > > > > 1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic > > > > vote. > > > > > 2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama > > > > voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll. > > > > > 3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where > > > > there > > > > is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004. > > > > > 4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each > > > > of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings. > > > > > 5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics > > > > of the voters who conduct the exit polls. > > > > > After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study > > > > investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over > > > > performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to > > > > have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls > > > > was > > > > that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the > > > > exit polls. > > > > > “Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates > > > > and > > > > the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of > > > > precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to > > > > Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush > > > > voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, > > > > more > > > > often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the > > > > Republican. > > > > > We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News > > > > survey > > > > showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to > > > > participate > > > > in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are. > > > > > In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout > > > > nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 > > > > correlated with greater Within Precinct Error. > > > > > The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the > > > > national > > > > exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit > > > > poll > > > > report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one > > > > standard > > > > error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four > > > > states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on > > > > Tuesday to be more Democratic as well. > > > > > So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that > > > > Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means > > > > we > > > > should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from > > > > the > > > > actual election results. > > > > > The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the > > > > exit > > > > poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion > > > > rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was > > > > higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating > > > > this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, > > > > including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34. > > > > > Conclusions > > > > > Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again > > > > that > > > > Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under > > > > represent the McCain vote. > > > > > It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so > > > > that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early > > > > exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait > > > > until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and > > > > counties to gauge who won the election. > > > > >www.drudgereport.com-Hidequoted text - > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum
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