"How do we know that education levels drove changes in support — as opposed to income levels, for example? It’s tricky because there’s a fairly strong correlation between income and education.*4* <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/#fn-4>Specifically, the *correlation coefficient* <http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-interpret-a-correlation-coefficient-r/> is .69 between median household income and the share of the population 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree, among counties with a population of 50,000 or larger. Nonetheless, with the whole country to pick from, we can find some places where education levels are high but incomes are average or below average. If education is the key driver of changes in the electorate, we’d expect Clinton to hold steady or gain in these counties. If income matters more, we might see her numbers decline."
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