Indonesians' choice: change or status quo By ERIC TEO CHU CHEOW Special to The Japan Times
SINGAPORE -- Indonesians go to the polls Sept. 20 in the second round of balloting to choose between Megawati Sukarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (affectionally known as SBY) as president for the next five years. The polls are in fact the third round of elections to be held in Indonesia this year following the legislative, regional and local polls in April and the first round of the presidential elections July 5. This has been a great year for Indonesian democracy, although one may wonder whether Indonesians are suffering from electoral fatigue at this point. Since this is the first Indonesian presidential election by universal suffrage, voting trends are still not well understood. The current elections center on two sets of dialectics: *Will organization or popular charisma prevail? *Will there be change, or will the status quo continue? After many years of authoritarian rule by strongman Suharto, Indonesians were thrilled to participate in round one. Many of the older generation remember the charisma of Indonesia's founding father and first president, Sukarno, who, as a consummate politician, united the nation and won the hearts of Indonesians through his fiery speeches. Suharto, on the other hand, held the country together through a powerful organization, Golongan Karya (Golkar), which was run almost along military lines. Many Indonesians will recall these two father figures as they go to vote. Unlike her father (Sukarno), Megawati is uncharismatic, while SBY -- like Sukarno -- has popular appeal. Her electoral strategy appears based on the strength of "organization" rather than on charisma. She formed the Nationhood Coalition with three other parties: Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) of Vice President Hamzah Haz and a smaller party known as the Peace and Prosperous Party. She is counting on organization and grassroots support to win over the 145 million-strong electorate. Meanwhile, SBY has renounced the idea of forming a political coalition before the election and has refused to "horse-trade" Cabinet posts for support. He has campaigned solely on personality. SBY has already stated that, if elected, he will accord 40 percent of the Cabinet posts to his supporters, 40 percent to nonpartisan professionals and only 20 percent to political parties and politicians. Considered handsome by most Indonesian women, SBY is said to be playing up his charisma to win over Indonesians, despite a weak party apparatus. His Partei Democrat got only 7.5 percent of the vote in the legislative elections, good for 54 seats in Parliament (about 10 percent of the total). Yet, in the first round of the presidential polls, SBY received almost 22 percent of the vote -- nearly 3 percent more than the incumbent. A new party, "PKS," has just pledged support to SBY, a strategic move clearly aimed at distinguishing itself from "status quo" parties and Megawati. SBY's handicap is a practically nonexistent party machine and grassroots organization. By contrast, Megawati is counting on her political coalition to mobilize support in all 32 provinces of Indonesia. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, comprises a vast grassroots organization, although it has weakened considerably in the past two years due to Megawati's flagging leadership of the party. Still, she can depend on Golkar with its tight political structure. Golkar is especially powerful in eastern Indonesia, an area crucial to Megawati if she hopes to win. SBY is counting on his running mate Yusuf Kalla, a Sulawesian, to bring over the eastern provinces. To secure the Muslim vote (although there is no real Muslim vote, per se), both candidates have pulled out all the stops. Megawati chose as her running mate a renowned Muslim leader, Hashim Muzardi of Nadlatul Ulama (Indonesia's largest Muslim organization with some 40 million cardholders). Her ties with Hamzah's PPP represent another attempt to reach out to Muslims, as the PPP is the biggest Muslim party in the new legislature elected in April. For his part, SBY is emphasizing his Muslim credentials as well as those of his running mate, Kalla. Both are reputed to be devout Muslims. The presidential campaign is being molded by an electoral tactic first advanced by the SBY camp. It has framed the election as a choice of "change or status quo," with SBY calling for change. Aware that Indonesians are not accustomed to political change in their history, SBY is spicing up the campaign by denouncing the status quo for allegedly perpetuating evils ranging from corruption and economic paralysis to unemployment and the lack of social justice. Megawati then comes out to defend her platform by promising to do better in her second term and to end Indonesia's stagnation. She has called for greater economic stability after introducing measures along this line following the whimsical and unpredictable years of her predecessors, B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid. But she also needs to prove that she can do better against the twin scourges of corruption and terrorism, which reared its ugly head again Thursday with the bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta. Regardless of who wins Sept. 20, Indonesians may still face another five years of uncertainty as either outcome poses risks. SBY's military temperament and his reluctance to work with political parties and organizations could lead to a paralysis that prevents the executive and legislative branches from working together. On the other hand, Megawati, by tying her hands with political commitments, may again become a prisoner of party politics. There are already rumors that, to secure Golkar's support, she has promised it eight Cabinet posts, mainly in economic fields. This could weaken the second term of her presidency, especially since she she must also compete for the military's support. Eric Teo Chu Cheow is council secretary of the Singapore Institute for International Affairs. The Japan Times: Sept. 14, 2004 (C) All rights reserved [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar. Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free! http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/BRUplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> *************************************************************************** Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. 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