http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4504394,00.html Ex-General Nears Victory in Indonesia Vote --------------------------------------------------------
``Whatever happens in Jakarta is irrelevant to the people of Aceh because they are still getting killed, tortured and oppressed every day,'' Bakhtiar said via telephone from Sweden, where the rebels maintain a government in exile. ``The situation in the field has not changed and it will not change,'' he said. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------\ ----------------------- Tuesday September 21, 2004 4:16 PM AP Photo JAK143 By MICHAEL CASEY Associated Press Writer JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) - Former General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took a seemingly unassailable lead Tuesday in Indonesia's presidential election, cheering investors amid hopes he will introduce much-needed economic reforms and provide firm leadership in the war on terror. But in a sign of the challenges facing the next leader of the world's largest Muslim nation, separatist rebels in the wartorn province of Aceh vowed that the bloody conflict would continue regardless of any change at the top. The Jakarta stock market reacted to Yudhoyono's apparent landslide by closing at an all-time high Tuesday. Yudhoyono was expected to move quickly to announce Cabinet posts and set a new policy agenda to deal with problems facing the country, including rampant graft, aides said. With over 80 million votes counted, or about two-thirds of the ballots cast in Monday's election, Yudhoyono was leading with 61 percent, while incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri had 39 percent, according to the General Election Commission. The Washington-based National Democratic Institute said its ``Quick Count'' survey gave Yudhoyono 60 percent of the vote and 40 percent to Megawati. The same method accurately predicted Indonesia's last two elections. Monday's poll passed off peacefully and foreign monitors pronounced it fair. The election was the first in which Indonesian voters chose their leader directly, and was a key step in the sprawling nation's transition to democracy. Yudhoyono has declined so far to claim victory and Megawati did not concede. Aides for both candidates, who did not address the media Tuesday, said they would wait until the official tally is announced Oct. 5. The new president is to be sworn in Oct. 20. The Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite index ended at an all-time high of 823.858 points and the rupiah currency also got a boost. Traders attributed the market rises to confidence that Yudhoyono would adopt aggressive measures to push the country out of the slump it has been in since the 1997-98 regional economic crisis. ``Expectations are high on Yudhoyono,'' said Song Seng Wun, a senior economist with G.K. Goh Research Pte. Ltd. in Singapore. ``But it remains to be seen whether the new government will be able to deliver.'' The rally may be short-lived, investors said. Markets are expected to quickly shift their attention to the challenges facing Yudhoyono, including a potentially hostile Parliament and an entrenched political elite that could attempt to block reform. Yudhoyono, who has studied in the United States, would be the fourth head of state since nationwide protests forced former dictator Suharto to resign in 1998 after 32 years in power. Yudhoyono is popular in Washington because of his relatively hardline stance on terrorism in the strategically located nation, the target of three major attacks by the al-Qaida-linked Jemaah Islamiyah terror group in the past two years, including the 2002 Bali bombings. But terror was not an issue at the polls, with most voters choosing Yudhoyono because they believed he would be better than Megawati in fixing the economy and ending graft. Yudhoyono served as Megawati's security minister and was her administration's pointman on terrorism. Jeffrey Winters, an Indonesia specialist at Chicago's Northwestern University, said Yudhoyono should publicly link Islamic militants to the terror attacks in the archipelago - something Megawati and other officials refused to do for fear of antagonizing Muslim voters. ``As soon as possible, he needs to speak clearly about terrorists operating in Indonesia,'' Winters said. ``They have a name and he has to state that name.'' The separatist war in Aceh, which has claimed at least 2,200 lives in the past 18 months, was also barely mentioned in the campaign. On Tuesday, rebel spokesman Bakhtiar Abdullah vowed the struggle would continue. Yudhoyono negotiated a six-month peace deal with the rebels in 2003 and there have been hopes he will move to reopen talks. ``Whatever happens in Jakarta is irrelevant to the people of Aceh because they are still getting killed, tortured and oppressed every day,'' Bakhtiar said via telephone from Sweden, where the rebels maintain a government in exile. ``The situation in the field has not changed and it will not change,'' he said. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------\ ----------------------- http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3217939 Susilo's moment Sep 21st 2004 >From The Economist Global Agenda The world's most populous Muslim country has a new leader. Will Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono do a better job of tackling terrorism, separatism, corruption and unemployment than his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri? Get article background THE votes are still being counted in Indonesia's first direct presidential election, but it is already clear that the world's most populous Muslim country will soon have a new leader. On Tuesday September 21st, with almost two-thirds of the ballots counted, the challenger, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, was all but assured of victory, having garnered 60.5% of the vote compared with 39.5% for the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri. The final result will not be announced until October 5th, and Miss Megawati is not conceding defeat yet. But no one doubts that Mr Susilo has won�least of all him. The former army general and minister, popularly known as SBY, has held several press conferences since the first results were posted and is said to be working on a new cabinet. The run-off followed a first round of voting in July, in which all but two candidates were eliminated, and a parliamentary poll in April. That all three elections have gone with barely a hitch is remarkable in a country with 220m people, spread across a huge archipelago of 17,000 islands. It is even more remarkable in light of the country's political history: in just six years, Indonesia has gone from authoritarian rule to the brink of chaos and now to full democracy. Student-led protests forced the resignation of the country's former strongman, Suharto, in 1998, after 32 years in power. There then followed a period of growing disorder, in which separatist and religious violence threatened to engulf the country. Miss Megawati deserves credit for overseeing a restoration of relative calm and economic growth since taking office in 2001. But she has been a poor communicator and a weak administrator who has done little to rein in the country's rampant corruption. Much of her remaining support derives from nostalgia for her father, Indonesia's founding president, Sukarno. In April's parliamentary elections, her Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) lost almost a third of its seats, while Mr Susilo's recently formed Democratic Party surged in popularity. Though Indonesia's voters have now signalled that they want change at the top too, it is not clear that Mr Susilo can deliver on this mandate. He is intelligent, intellectually curious and more comfortable in the spotlight than Miss Megawati. He is also seen as a man of integrity who would be strong in times of crisis. But he is also thought to be indecisive and too much of a micro-manager. Nor is there much to separate him from Miss Megawati on policy. He won the election on character, not ideology. Whether he has the qualities to solve Indonesia's various intractable problems remains to be seen. He has promised to tackle government corruption, which remains a huge problem and a drag on the economy, and the unpredictable legal system. However, if he is to succeed, he will also have to take on the parliament, where a coalition of parties linked to Miss Megawati and to others with no allegiance to the new president holds just over half of the seats. Fighting terrorism will also be high on the list. Indonesia has suffered three major attacks in the past two years. The first, and worst, was the bombing of a Bali nightclub in October 2002, which killed more than 200. The most recent was the car bomb that went off outside the Australian embassy in Jakarta on September 9th, leaving nine dead. Mr Susilo was, until earlier this year, Miss Megawati's security minister and oversaw the arrest and prosecution of the Islamic militants who carried out the Bali attack. His election victory will be seen in the West as good for the war on terrorism. But he has yet to show that he can put a stop to the attacks. Nor is it clear that he will be any better than Miss Megawati at dealing with those who would break Indonesia apart. With its many local languages and ethnic groups, the country's unity is threatened by various separatist movements, especially in the provinces of Aceh and West Papua. Though martial law was lifted in Aceh in May, having been imposed a year earlier, the separatist Free Aceh Movement is still active. Inspired by East Timor's ultimately successful push for independence, these restive regions are likely to vex both the president and the armed forces for years to come. While some Indonesians want independence, others just want jobs While some Indonesians want independence, others just want jobs. Though the economy is now growing at around 4-5% annually, it needs to grow even more quickly�by say 7%�to cut the country's high rate of joblessness: an estimated 40m or so are out of work or underemployed. But the easy work on the economy has already been done: macroeconomic stabilisation. Now Mr Susilo must improve the investment climate, to provide jobs for the hordes of young Indonesians who come on to the labour market each year. Business leaders and the financial markets think there is a better chance of this happening under Mr Susilo (who has an American management degree) than under his predecessor�the Jakarta stockmarket hit a record high on Tuesday as news of his victory sank in. But many hope he will hold on to Miss Megawati's well-respected finance minister, Boediono. The PDI-P and Golkar, the country's largest political grouping, may obstruct Mr Susilo's efforts to reform the economy, the justice system and so on. However, he may be able to take advantage of the disarray in these two main parties and persuade parts of them to break away and support him. Should he fail in this, and therefore struggle to deliver on his promises, he, like Miss Megawati, will most likely be turfed out of office after just one term. For Indonesians, having put up with dictatorship for decades, are all too keen to wield their democratic powers. The result is that rarest of creatures, a vibrant Muslim democracy. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------\ ---------------- Amnesty International, US Section September 16, 2004 The Honorable Colin L. Powell Secretary of State US State Department Washington, DC 20520 Dear Mr. Secretary: I am writing to express Amnesty International's concern over reported plans by the Department of State to furnish foreign military financing (FMF) to Indonesia in the Administration's FY06 budget request. Amnesty International strongly opposes any consideration of FMF for Indonesia at this juncture. We equally oppose the potential release of International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds for Indonesia in FY04. Amnesty International's position is that government's should ban the transfer of arms to Indonesia while the Indonesian military continue to commit gross violations of human rights. In view of the extensive and persistent violations of fundamental rights by the Indonesian security forces, including the military, any international training or technical support given to the Indonesian security forces should exclude operational training until the serious lack of adequate systems of accountability is addressed. Opposition to FMF for Indonesia, broadly shared in Congress, is based on the Indonesian military's (TNI) continuing record of human rights violations and the lack of effective accountability mechanisms. Your own Department of State Country Reports on Human Rights Practices reveals that the TNI is responsible for many serious human rights violations. Congress has restricted FMF for Indonesia since FY 2000, conditioning its provision on accountability and justice for the military's gross human rights violations. Amnesty International does not believe that these conditions have been met. Indonesia's own judicial process has proved to be a failure and Indonesia has refused to cooperate with the serious crimes process in Timor-Leste, including by transferring to Timor-Leste for trial some 280 suspects indicted there. In August 2004, the convictions of four Indonesian military and police officers were overturned on appeal. They were found guilty of involvement in committing crimes against humanity in Timor-Leste in 1999, were overturned on appeal. The State Department noted that it was "profoundly disappointed with the performance and record of the Indonesian ad hoc tribunal," the special institution that was created in the wake of the murder of more than 1,400 East Timorese and other grave violations of human rights by Indonesian security forces and pro-Indonesian militia which they had set up and supported. Another ad hoc Human Rights Court, formed to bring to trials individuals responsible for the killing of Muslim protesters at Tanjung Priok in Jakarta, also recently failed to hold to account senior military officials. Amnesty International believes that the failure to deliver justice in these two high profile cases has further entrenched impunity in Indonesia. Amnesty International has documented numerous cases of grave human rights violations in the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (NAD) since the declaration of a military emergency there in May 2003. Amnesty International has collected detailed evidence of unlawful killings of civilians; torture, including rape and other crimes of sexual violence, arbitrary detention and unfair trials. Although the military emergency was downgraded to a civil emergency in May 2004, military operations are continuing and human rights violations continue to be reported. Human rights and humanitarian organizations, journalists and others continue to face severe restrictions in gaining access to and carrying out their work in NAD. Congress has also conditioned FMF for Indonesia on transparency in the military's budget. In the report accompanying the Senate Foreign Operations Appropriations for FY03, the Appropriations Committee stated that they were "�concerned about the Indonesian military's continued involvement in illegal business practices and other activities, including prostitution, contraband smuggling, and illegal logging which threatens Indonesia's unique ecosystems." Mr. Secretary, Amnesty International feels that the provision of FMF for Indonesia in FY06 would exacerbate ongoing violations and corruption by rewarding such behavior. Releasing IMET funds for Indonesia in FY04 is also unwarranted. We thank you for your consideration of this important matter and look forward to your response. Sincerely, Alexandra Arriaga Director of Government Relations ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> $9.95 domain names from Yahoo!. Register anything. http://us.click.yahoo.com/J8kdrA/y20IAA/yQLSAA/BRUplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> *************************************************************************** Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. 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