Kalau menurut laporan ini memang kemungkinan bahwa gempa sebesar didaerah Aceh sekarang akan terjadi lagi dlm waktu 150 - 200 tahun kemungkinan ini bisa betul.- tetapi ini hanya berdasarkan satu informasi ;[1833] Disamping itu, ini hanya satu titik dari Mentawai dan Sumatera Fault. Kedua fault ini pasti banyak pressure pointnya dan baru saja gempa Bengkulu terjadi dan bagaimana diantara kedua titik ini dan bagaimana dgn pressure diselatan Jawa kira2 dibawah kota Bandung dan Pelabuhan ratu. Memang gempa tidak dapat di ramal dgn tepat, dan setiap waktu kita bakal ketemukan fault baru yg merupakan branch dari kedua fault ini - karena itu persiapan dan pendidikan adalah yg diperlukan. Untuk tsunami memang warning system perlu diciptakan oleh UN. Result dari gempa ini belum kita ketahui dgn tepat dan analog dgn gempa yg terjadi diBengkulu nanti pasti team2 international akan bikin penyelidikan dan nanti kita akan lebih tahu. Andreas Title: Neotectonics of the Sumatran fault, IndonesiaAuthors: Sieh, Kerry; Natawidjaja, DannyJournal: Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 105, Issue B12, p. 28295-28326 (JGR Homepage)Publication Date: 12/2000Origin: AGUAGU Keywords: Seismology: Seismic hazard assessment and prediction, Tectonophysics: Continental margins and sedimentary basins, Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics, Information Related to Geographic Region: Indian OceanDOI: 10.1029/2000JB900120Bibliographic Code: 2000JGR...10528295SAbstractThe 1900-km-long, trench-parallel Sumatran fault accommodates a significant amount of the right-lateral component of oblique convergence between the Eurasian and Indian/Australian plates from 10 �N to 7 �S. Our detailed map of the fault, compiled from topographic maps and stereographic aerial photographs, shows that unlike many other great strike-slip faults, the Sumatran fault is highly segmented. Cross-strike width of step overs between the 19 major subaerial segments is commonly many kilometers. The influence of these step overs on historical seismic source dimensions suggests that the dimensions of future events will also be influenced by fault geometry. Geomorphic offsets along the fault range as high as ~20 km and may represent the total offset across the fault. If this is so, other structures must have accommodated much of the dextral component of oblique convergence during the past few million years. Our analysis of stretching of the forearc region, near the southern tip of Sumatra, constrains the combined dextral slip on the Sumatran and Mentawai faults to be no more than 100 km in the past few million years. The shape and location of the Sumatran fault and the active volcanic arc are highly correlated with the shape and character of the underlying subducting oceanic lithosphere. Nonetheless, active volcanic centers of the Sumatran volcanic arc have not influenced noticeably the geometry of the active Sumatran fault. On the basis of its geologic history and pattern of deformation, we divide the Sumatran plate margin into northern, central and southern domains. We support previous proposals that the geometry and character of the subducting Investigator fracture zone are affecting the shape and evolution of the Sumatran fault system within the central domain. The southern domain is the most regular. The Sumatran fault there comprises six right-stepping segments. This pattern indicates that the overall trend of the fault deviates 4� clockwise from the slip vector between the two blocks it separates. The regularity of this section and its association with the portion of the subduction zone that generated the giant (MW9) earthquake of 1833 suggest that a geometrically simple subducting slab results in both simple strike-slip faulting and unusually large subduction earthquakes. --------------------------------- Bibtex entry for this abstract Preferred format for this abstract (see Preferences)
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