Karena Tsunami takut sama Nyai Loro Kidul, bisa-bisa dijadikan sashimi! ----- Original Message ----- From: "rahardjo mustadjab" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 5:48 PM Subject: [ppiindia] Waves of change
> > > Saya punya quiz: Mengapa tsunami tidak menghempas > pantai selatan Jawa atau Pulau Christmas yang masih > berdekatan? Dari segi geofisika, barangkali bisa > diterangkan oleh RDP yang memang ahlinya. Yang ahli > perklenikan juga monggo. > > Yang jelas, marilah kita berharap hendaknya musibah > ini membawa berkah. Berkah ini sudah terjadi di > Srilanka. Seperti kita tahu, wilayah utara dan timur > adalah basis LTTE dan sekarang gerilyawan LTTE dan > tentara Srilanka bahu membahu mengatur pertolongan. > Yang begini ini, saya belum dengar apakah sudah > terjadi di Aceh. > > Berkah kedua, dunia sudah dipersatukan oleh bencana > ini, bahkan negara-negara besar sudah mengisyaratkan > akan memangkas hutang negara-negara yang terkena. > Kalau itu jadi kenyataan, kita akan berterima kasih. > Soal berterima kasih, orang Asia tidak perlu > diingatkan lagi karena mereka/kita adalah orang-orang > yang cukup berperadaban. Sudah barang tentu, kitapun > hendaknya mengubah perilaku kita yang sering lebih > boros dari penduduk negara-negara kaya. Kalau itu > yang terjadi, jangan-jangan mereka mengubah niat. > > Salam, > RM > > ----------------------------- > > The New York Times > January 7, 2005 > OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR > Waves of Change > By DAVID HALE > > Chicago > > CIVILIZATION exists by geologic consent, subject to > change without notice," wrote the historian Will > Durant. The tsunami that struck Asia last month, > caused by an earthquake off the coast of Indonesia, is > a reminder of the validity of Durant's thesis; so far > it has left some 140,000 people dead. > > Throughout human history, earthquakes have set in > motion great economic changes and political > revolutions. Last month's tsunami was devastating in > its toll on human life, but its economic and political > effects may be more modest. > > The San Francisco earthquake in 1906 was an important > catalyst for the financial shocks that led to the > creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Because > British insurance companies underwrote the majority of > the city's insurance policies, millions of pounds of > insurance claims were soon presented in London. The > insurance claims generated a huge outflow of gold from > London, which forced the Bank of England to nearly > double British interest rates and to lobby British > banks to stop buying American debt. Higher interest > rates played a role in creating a financial panic in > America, and Congress was so alarmed that it > established a commission to investigate whether the > government should play a greater role managing the > money supply. The result of the commission's work was > the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank. > > Most of the businesses and people affected by last > month's tsunami are relatively poor, and few had > insurance. As a result, estimates of the insurance > cost of the disaster are about $10 billion. The losses > to the various national economies may also not exceed > $10 billion. > > Aceh, the Indonesian province where up to 100,000 > people may have been killed, accounts for only about 2 > percent of the country's gross domestic product. > Thailand's southern provinces, which were overrun by > the tsunami, contribute only about 2 percent of the > country's G.D.P. > > Sri Lanka, however, suffered extensive damage to its > tourism, fishing and agricultural sectors. Tourism is > a major industry there, directly or indirectly > accounting for nearly 11 percent of gross domestic > product, and the devastation in southern Sri Lanka > could reduce G.D.P. by 2 percent to 3 percent this > year. The regional impact will be modest, though, > because Sri Lanka's economy is only about $74 billion > compared with $478 billion for Thailand and $759 > billion for Indonesia. > > Thailand and Indonesia could suffer greater economic > losses if their tourism industries decline; tourism is > 12 percent of Thailand's economy and 10 percent of > Indonesia's. But as the terrorist attack in Bali in > 2002 and the SARS epidemic in 2003 demonstrated, shock > events do not usually affect tourism for longer than a > few months if people perceive that danger has passed. > In fact, Thai hotel stocks declined on the day after > the tsunami but have since recovered. > > Earthquakes have also generated great political > shocks. An earthquake in November 1755 destroyed > Lisbon and killed at least 60,000 people. It also > encouraged Portugal's foreign minister, Sebasti�o de > Carvalho, to usurp power from the king and launch a > campaign against the Roman Catholic Church. Carvalho > effectively reigned over Portugal until 1777. > > In 1972, an earthquake in Nicaragua helped to nurture > an incipient revolution against the ruling Somoza > family. Outraged at the government's response to the > catastrophe, many Nicaraguans in Managua turned to the > Sandinistas, who ousted the Somozas in 1979. > > Last month's earthquake could have important political > implications because it struck regions in Indonesia > and Sri Lanka that are home to domestic insurgent > groups. Separatists in Aceh and Tamils in Sri Lanka > have been challenging their governments for more than > 20 years. The Indonesian government was initially slow > to deploy aid, and many soldiers ran from the scene of > the disaster, which could affect the standing of the > new president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who had been > promising to improve government efficiency. The Sri > Lankan government, meanwhile, has allowed > international aid agencies to coordinate relief with > the Tamil separatists. > > There is precedent for an earthquake encouraging > political reconciliation. In 1999, earthquakes struck > Turkey and Greece just a month apart and fostered > cooperation between the two nations. The Turkish quake > devastated an industrial city and killed more than > 15,000 people; the Greeks sent relief and received > positive news media coverage in Turkey. When a milder > earthquake struck Greece a month later, Turkey > reciprocated by sending aid. > > The great risk in Aceh today is mismanagement of the > reconstruction process. The Indonesian military has > ruled the province since the fall of President Suharto > in 1998 and has excluded foreign journalists. Since > the earthquake, however, the province has been overrun > with the global press and inundated with international > relief agencies. When more foreign aid arrives, the > Indonesian military could try to steal it. The > presence of the United Nations could also encourage > the Aceh separatists to demand more democracy in the > province and even a referendum on independence. It > would be a shame if the tsunami destabilized the > administration of President Yudhoyono only a few > months after he assumed office as a result of the > country's first democratic presidential election. > > The American press has been full of stories about how > American aid for the earthquake and tsunami victims > could help to improve American relations with the > region. Public and private donations to the region > from the United States could exceed $600 million. > There is little doubt that the United States is > playing a leadership role along with Japan, which has > pledged $500 million, and the European Union, which > has pledged $580 million. The new rising power in the > region, China, is offering only $63 million. > > What is unclear is whether Asians will regard the > American aid as a truly transforming event or as a > temporary burst of generosity from an aggressive > superpower. Much may depend upon the follow-through. > There is talk in Washington of capitalizing on the > disaster by intensifying efforts to obtain a free > trade agreement with Thailand and revive moribund > talks about such an agreement with Sri Lanka. These > developments could have a more lasting impact than the > aid itself. > > IN the 19th century, Indonesia was the site of two > great volcanic eruptions whose impact was felt > worldwide. The eruption at Tambora in 1815 killed at > least 50,000 and spewed so much ash into the > atmosphere that it produced a global cooling that > caused frosts in New England in the summer of 1816. > The eruption at Krakatoa in 1883 wiped out more than > 160 villages and killed at least 36,000 people. The > explosion was so loud it was heard in Perth, > Australia, thousands of miles away. > > The most enduring legacy of last month's tsunami may > be the role of technology in providing relief. Because > of the Internet, thousands of people were able to wire > money to charities and aid agencies immediately. Ten > years ago, it would have taken several days or weeks > for checks to come in the mail. The prompt response > shows that globalization can be a force for good. The > challenge will be to ensure that the world remains > focused on the recovery after the tragedy fades from > the headlines. > > > David Hale, an economist and financial adviser, is > chairman of China Online, a business news site. > > > > The New York Times > > > > *************************************************************************** > Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. 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