http://www.progresoweekly.com/index.php?progreso=eduardo_dimas&otherweek=1110780000
Uruguay: Now what? By Eduardo Dimas [EMAIL PROTECTED] On March 1, a man from the left, Tabar� V�zquez, assumed the presidency of Uruguay at the head of a heterogeneous government composed of socialists, communists, Christian socialists and even important figures of Uruguay's neoliberalism. His rise to power, after winning the October elections on the first round with 50.45 percent of the votes (more than 1.113 million votes), has created a string of expectations regarding the direction his administration will take, basically a leftist government that holds a majority in the Chamber of Deputies (53 of 99 seats) and the Senate (17 of 30 seats.) The presidents of both chambers, Nora Castro and Jos� Mujica, respectively, are former Tupamaro guerrillas who were persecuted, tortured and sentenced to long prison terms during the military dictatorship of 1972-1985. For obvious reasons, a government with those characteristics is not often seen in Latin America, not even in Venezuela or Brazil, much less in Argentina. The first actions taken by the V�zquez government could not be more symbolic: A $100 million emergency plan to alleviate the misery in which 40 percent of the Uruguayan people live; the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Cuba -- broken during the administration of Jorge Batlle, whose servility to the government of the United States was total -- and the signing of a trade pact with Venezuela whereby Uruguay receives crude oil at reasonable prices and exports food products, in a demonstration that Latin American integration is possible. In other words, Uruguay establishes stronger economic and political links with the two countries that are in the crosshairs of the current U.S. administration. This is a gesture that many observers have viewed -- with good reason, in my opinion -- as a show of independence and a warning to the empire that the new Uruguayan government will be guided by the interests of the nation and not by foreign interests, to the extent that this is possible for a nation that is practically in the hands of the international financial organizations. However, the very heterogeneity of the new government's members and the ideological differences between some raise the specter of possible splits and disagreements that may weaken the government's performance. Some news agencies have reminded us of the splits that occurred in the past between the members of the Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio [Progressive Encounter-Broad Front] and the implications similar splits might have for Uruguay's first progressive government in 174 years of independent existence. Others point out, also with reason, that the majority of the Uruguayan people have placed their hopes on the performance of the new government, in the wake of the economic setbacks created by the application of the neoliberal model, the corruption and a series of circumstances that led the country to bankruptcy. If those hopes are frustrated by a misguided action or by a continuation of the neoliberal policies, the Uruguayan people would cease to support the left. This would mean a serious defeat, which would have repercussions not only inside Uruguay but also on a regional scale, at a time when new perspectives of integration are opening, and several neoliberal-minded and pro-U.S. governments are rejected by their citizens, as is the case in Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru. Tabar� V�zquez reached the presidency with more than 80 percent of the popular acceptance, which means that an important sector of those who did not vote for him now support his presidency -- or at least hope that he will do more for the benefit of the people than his predecessors. If no changes are made -- which wouldn't be immediate, of course -- then it would not unthinkable that a good many Uruguayans will reject him. We should bear in mind that more than half of the 50.45 percent of the votes V�zquez received were punishment votes against the other two traditional parties. That is, people voted for the Broad Front so as not to vote for the White Party or the Red Party, which received 34 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively. In this connection, we should bear in mind the economic situation inherited by the V�zquez government. In his farewell speech, departing President Jorge Batlle (who earned the soubriquet of The Weeper) said he was turning over a country in full economic growth and many resolved problems. If the story of Pinocchio were true, Batlle would have serious problems with his nose, because despite a 13 percent rise in the Gross Domestic Product last year -- attributable mostly to the loans received from the International Monetary Fund and the United States -- Uruguay's economic outlook is not at all encouraging. Consider this: A foreign debt in excess of $14 billion, one of the highest per capita in the world, because Uruguay has barely 3.2 million inhabitants. This year, the nation will have to pay about $5 billion in interests and amortization of capital. That won't leave much for the war on poverty, which affects 40 percent of the population, 100,000 of whom are indigent. Unemployment affects 20 percent of an active working population of more than 1 million people. Add to this the breakdown of public services, particularly health care and education, which have undergone a process of neglect in preparation for their privatization. With a situation like this, is it quite difficult for the government to solve the problems of poverty, much less jumpstart the economy in search not only of economic growth but also of development, something unthinkable in these circumstances. There is another element that has not generated much talk but that could affect the direction the new government will take. It is the position assumed by the two traditional parties, accustomed to govern but now removed from power and discredited, although with a relative amount of popular backing. However, these two parties enjoy the support of the Uruguayan oligarchy and bourgeoisie and the United States government, which of course has begun to criticize V�zquez's independent policies, particularly the resumption of relations with Cuba and the closer ties to Venezuela. A fact that attracted the attention of many observers was the tranquil transference of power and the good relations between V�zquez and departing President Batlle. Those relations were not so friendly, however, as to make us think that the traditional parties (now the opposition) won't do everything possible to keep the new government from being successful. Failure to do so would mean the end of their political history and the loss of a power they have held for 174 years, even during the military dictatorships with which, somehow or other, they collaborated -- with some exceptions. Other, more mistrustful observers, believe that those good relations are due to V�zquez's promises to the international financial organizations, the United States and the local oligarchy to not make substantial changes in Uruguay's economic and social situations. However, these comments may be part of a campaign to discredit the new president and to deny him the support of the people and the more progressive organizations that form the coalition that carried him to power. I believe these are, broadly speaking, the challenges before the new Uruguayan government. V�zquez's rise to power comes at a time when Latin America is carrying out an attempt at integration that greatly exceeds all other previous attempts. But that process is still in its gestation and the V�zquez government is undeniably a considerable reinforcement, because it consolidates the position of the Mercosur and its relationship with the Andean Community of Nations, especially with Venezuela, which will join Mercosur. Without a doubt, therein lies the embryo of Latin American unity. It remains to be seen what will happen in 2006, when six hemispheric nations will hold presidential elections: Mexico, Nicaragua, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Needless to say, this whole process is not seen kindly by the U.S. government or by important sectors of Latin America's oligarchy, which depend on transnational capital and are more interested in enforcing the Free Trade Accord of the Americas (FTAA) -- which would mean the total surrender of the riches of Latin America to the United States -- than in developing their own countries. It is well known that Tabar� V�zquez always has had an integrationist vocation and for this reason it is important that he be successful in his administration. It is always said that politicians are tied to the circumstances around them. In the case of the new Uruguayan government, the circumstances are not favorable. Only the unity between its leaders and, above all, their willingness to create change will keep the new government from fading into history as just another deceit. If V�zquez manages to maintain and develop the objectives of his government (which he expressed often during and after the presidential campaign), if he manages to introduce into Uruguay's society at least a minimum of social justice, if he manages to pay even a small part of the social debt he inherited from the previous governments, he will take a firm step forward in the process of Latin American unity. Eduardo Dimas, a professor at the School of Communications of Havana University, analyzes international politics for various media. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. 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