http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12775216%5E25377,00.html
Bambang can be our best friend
April 07, 2005
THE interview was supposed to begin at 4.30pm in the Cumberland Room at
Sydney's Shangri-La Hotel, but a staffer for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
came in to say it would be delayed for 15 minutes. Then it was decided to
postpone until after dinner. Yudhoyono had been so affected by meeting and
consoling the relatives of the nine dead Australian servicemen and women at
Sydney Airport on Tuesday afternoon that he was rapidly cancelling appointments.
When we finally did meet, a little after 9pm, the emotions of the day's events
were still raw. Yet Yudhoyono's obvious charm and warmth were much in evidence.
Yudhoyono has charmed all of Australia this week, and that's no bad thing
because it is possible that there is not a foreign politician more important to
our future.
Don't get me wrong. The US president is obviously much more powerful, but there
will always be a steadiness to US policy, more or less no matter who is
president. But Yudhoyono is now the single greatest swing factor between a
successful Indonesia and a failed Indonesia, and for that reason he is the
single greatest swing factor for us.
It's early days yet. Yudhoyono is not Superman and he certainly can't solve all
of Indonesia's problems. We are right to keep expectations realistic. But so
far the President has a good story. As he told a breakfast for the great and
the good of the business community, last year Indonesia's economy grew by 5.1
per cent. This year it will be 5.5per cent. Investment is flowing back. For the
first time since the 1997 East Asia economic crisis, Indonesia saw a net
capital inflow last year. Percapita income, at $US1030 ($1340), is higher than
it was before 1997.
Yudhoyono wants Australian investment and he has promised, publicly and
privately in talks with Australian corporate chiefs, to fix the regulatory
nightmare and overlapping governmental jurisdictions that bedevil the mining
industry in particular. Some of the $1 billion in Australian aid for
post-tsunami reconstruction will involve big Australian companies, and
officials hope this will trigger longer-term involvement.
Yudhoyono is the most pro-Australian president Indonesia has had. He is
certainly the most competent individual to hold that office, at least since
Suharto. He is not corrupt, he speaks English, he reads widely, he has had
extensive exposure to the West, especially the US, and being a former general
he knows how to handle the military and how to get things done.
As has been much reported, Yudhoyono is energetically supporting Australia's
bid to join the East Asia summit process, and that is a very big plus for John
Howard's diplomacy. But Yudhoyono's ascent does not mean there are no
differences between Jakarta and Canberra.
I asked Yudhoyono, for example, why Indonesia still has not banned Jemaah
Islamiah. He replied: "Actually, the difference is on how we see and understand
banning illegal organisations. For us in Indonesia the so-called Jemaah
Islamiah organisation was formed in Malaysia. Based only on our law, there is
no formal organisation Jemaah Islamiah [in Indonesia]. But I assure you, I
assure all countries in the world, that in combating terrorism, conducting
preventive measures to fight terrorism, we are working day and night. Indonesia
will do this very seriously."
So Yudhoyono cannot for the moment alter the highly unsatisfactory Indonesian
consensus against banning JI outright. But his answer at least acknowledges
that JI exists and then quickly moves on to the more substantial question of
fighting terrorists, whatever label you give them. It would certainly be better
to have Indonesia formally ban JI, but given that's politically impossible,
this is about the best approach you could reasonably expect.
Yudhoyono also made clear he would like to completely normalise the
military-to-military relationship: "Training, education, combined exercises,
exchange of military personnel - that can foster our co-operation."
It's hard to see the evidence in all this for the crew that asserts that
Australia, because of its closeness to the US, is isolated in Asia.
A number of questions I raised with Yudhoyono, such as potential US-China
rivalry in Asia, he played an intelligent dead bat to. It's a strength of
Yudhoyono's that he doesn't make unintentional news with undisciplined remarks.
He was more interesting on Burma, which is scheduled to take the chair of ASEAN
next year. The regime in Rangoon is so malodorous that this could greatly
embarrass ASEAN and could lead to European, or even American, boycotts. Yet
ASEAN leaders have traditionally been loath to interfere in each other's
internal affairs. Yudhoyono said: "I have met the Prime Minister of Myanmar
[Burma] twice and I discussed with him a lot that Indonesia is under the
process of reform and democratising. Of course we share much experience with
Myanmar in the past. The spirit of Indonesian reform led us to embrace
democracy, particularly human rights and other international values. Of course
I am not in a position to dictate to Myanmar, but I have explained Indonesia's
experience."
Thus Yudhoyono signals his support for democracy and his wish that Burma
democratise, without breaching ASEAN protocols. He also points out that the
ASEAN foreign ministers will shortly consider what Burma's role should be in
2006, which is surely a veiled threat to deprive it of the ASEAN chairmanship.
Yudhoyono is a gifted politician, a moderate reformer, a competent technocrat.
Does he represent the future? India had such a leader in A.B.Vajpayee and
Indians saw the benefit of reform so clearly that they replaced him, when the
time came, with an equally committed reformer, Manmohan Singh. Or will
Indonesia follow the Philippines, which replaced the moderate reformer Fidel
Ramos, who Yudhoyono so resembles, with the drunken vandal Joseph Estrada?
Unlike Ramos, Yudhoyono can run for two terms. He's started well and Canberra
is taking the opportunity he represents. That's good enough for now.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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