http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GE11Aa01.html
May 11, 2005 


Mr Osama, are you OK?
By B Raman 

Dear Mr bin Laden, 

Are you OK? 

One has not heard from you since October 29, 2004, when you sent a recorded 
message through al-Jazeera on the eve of the US presidential elections. 

One knows that such periodic spells of silence are not unusual in the interest 
of your physical security. But whenever there are long spells of silence, the 
rumor mills start over-working. 

This had happened in the past and this is happening now, but this time, the 
rumors are stronger and more persistent than before. In the last week of April, 
there were frenzied rumors of your death following a posting by an unidentified 
person on a web site identified with the al-Qaeda network. Not much credibility 
was given to the rumors in the end. 

In an analysis of these rumors, the well-respected Northeast Intelligence 
Network, a non-governmental online terrorism analysis group of the US, said as 
follows on April 29: 
Analysts at the Northeast Intelligence Network read, translated and reviewed 
the message approximately 45 minutes after it was originally posted by a newly 
registered poster to that forum who has virtually no other posting record. 
Based on the manner in which the message was posted and the status of the 
poster, government intelligence analysts are privately looking at the 
possibility that the message was deliberately posted to garner attention. 
Regardless of the poster or intent, it is important to note that the message, 
written in Arabic, does not claim that bin Laden is dead. Rather, the message 
"waxes poetic" over what is expected to happen when the al-Qaeda leader dies.
I was inclined to feel that the posting regarding your death might have been 
made by the US intelligence as part of its psychological warfare to create 
confusion and demoralization in the ranks of your followers. The rumors died 
down. 

But doubts have again arisen after one received reports on the sermons 
delivered in some madrassas (seminaries) of the tribal region in Pakistan and 
Afghanistan during the last two Fridays. In the sermons, the mullahs have 
prayed to God for your good health and success against the US and Israel. There 
is nothing unusual in that. They were doing so even in the past. 

But what is intriguing now is that their sermons also included prayers to God 
for the good health and success of your sons in the jihad against the US and 
Israel. Why suddenly these prayers for your sons? 

Are you dying, if not already dead? Is something seriously wrong with your 
health? 

Please send a message to al-Jazeera quickly through your usual handlers in 
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence. Otherwise, this will add further 
confusion in the minds of the already much confused al-Qaeda watchers. 

Warm regards and waiting anxiously for signs of life or of confirmed death, 
Yours sincerely, 

B Raman 

To: 
Mr Osama bin Laden,
Amir, al-Qaeda,
Care of General Pervez Musharraf,
President and Chief of the Army Staff,
Islamabad,
Pakistan. 

B Raman additional secretary (retired), cabinet secretariat, government of 
India, New Delhi, and, presently, director, Institute for Topical Studies, 
Chennai, and distinguished fellow and convener, Observer Research Foundation, 
Chennai Chapter. Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] )

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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