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Subject: [Minaret] [Fwd: [forum_jimm] The killers' new tactic: smaller
bombs, more often] From: ". Pradana Boy Ztf" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Mon, October 3, 2005 1:09 pm
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Subject: [forum_jimm] The killers' new tactic: smaller bombs, more often
From: "Pradana Boy ZTF" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Mon, October 3, 2005 1:02 pm
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Islam Progresif" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
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The Sydney Morning Herald
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-killers-new-tactic-smaller-bombs-more-often/2005/10/02/1128191602907.html
The killers' new tactic: smaller bombs, more oftenOctober 3, 2005
Assessing the evidence, what can we learn? Saturday's attack in Bali
raises troubling questions, writes Zachary Abuza.
The likely perpetrator of the weekend bombings in Bali is Jemaah Islamiah.
It is the only organisation in Indonesia with the capability and will to
target a tourist venue, such as Bali, and it has the track record.
Jemaah Islamiah has been responsible for three major bombings, happening
almost yearly: Bali in October 2002, the Marriott hotel in Jakarta in
August 2003 and the Australian embassy in September 2004.
Analysts have increasingly been divided over the state and goals of Jemaah
Islamiah, its relationship to al-Qaeda, and divisions within its ranks.
There is no doubt that Jemaah Islamiah is a smaller and more decentralised
organisation than it was; more than 300 arrests, including of many of its
top leadership and al-Qaeda liaisons around the region, have clearly set
Jemaah Islamiah back. Yet there is still a significant cadre of roughly 20
Afghan/al-Qaeda trained first-generation leaders at large. Many are
believed to be in Mindanao in the Philippines, training with the Moro
Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf. Jemaah Islamiah is patiently
rebuilding its ranks; it is down but not out. Indonesian intelligence has
intercepted a number of letters which suggest people are waiting in the
wings. It is clear Jemaah Islamiah will mobilise more resources towards
fomenting sectarian conflict in the coming years, because that is the
primary means it uses to recruit and indoctrinate a new generation of
recruits. To that end, there was an alarming upsurge in lateral conflicts
in 2004-05. Yet opportunistic attacks on the West will continue to be
employed.
What should we make of the fact that Jemaah Islamiah turned to smaller
bombs? The hallmark of its past three major attacks against Western
interests were large truck bombs - in the order of more than 100 kilograms
- mainly comprising ammonium nitrate and diesel. While these bombs
displayed significant technical skill, ambition and a desire to make a
statement, the attacks were costly (about $30,000 each) and logistically
difficult, especially in the context of an intense police dragnet.
There are four implications from the smaller bombs. First, we know that
much of the money for the previous attacks came directly from al-Qaeda's
coffers. Does this indicate the inability to procure the materials and
indicate limited human and material resources to put together large bombs?
Does it signify the link to al-Qaeda no longer exists? The fact is, we
really don't know the extent of the current relationship; many in the top
leadership with close ties to al-Qaeda have been arrested, as have many in
al-Qaeda's central apparatus.
Second, does it indicate a fundamental change in tactics? Has Jemaah
Islamiah temporarily abandoned large truck bombs, in favour of small pipe
bombs that are easy to assemble and mass-produce and small enough to
conceal? Jemaah Islamiah has been using smaller bombs for quite some time,
especially in the Moluccas and Sulawesi where they have been trying to
foment more sectarian violence. In May a bomb in a marketplace in Tentana,
on Sulawesi, killed 22. Between October last year and March this year,
police seized more than 200 small bombs in Jemaah Islamiah caches and
safehouses in the Moluccas and Sulawesi.
Third, Jemaah Islamiah leaders have tried to increase the tempo of
bombings to one every six months. They simply did not have the material or
human resources to do this with large truck bombs. We should expect this
is how they hope to strike more than once a year: small, cheap bombs, easy
to mass-assemble, easy to conceal that nonetheless are quite lethal. Three
well-placed pipe bombs killed more people than the attacks on the Marriott
and Australian embassy combined, at a fraction of the cost and with
arguably a greater economic impact. Rather than a big, annual truck bomb,
we'll be seeing more attacks against highly vulnerable soft targets.
Finally, the simultaneous bombings - three were detonated and between four
and 10 others were set - are a traditional Jemaah Islamiah and al-Qaeda
hallmark, and indicate a fairly large cell was used in the operation.
Terrorism is asymmetric warfare: terrorists marshal scarce resources and
attack when and how they have the capabilities to do so and when they have
a high probability of success. Their targeting and tactics change quickly
in order to cope with their changing security environment.
Zachary Abuza is associate professor of political science at Simmons
College, Boston, and the author of Militant Islam in South-East Asia.
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