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From__ : "Holy Uncle" 
Date__ : Thu Dec 1, 2005  3:46 pm
Subject: Iraq will stabilize only if the Americans pull out     
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Iraq will stabilize only if we pull out
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BY RAY TAKEYH
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

December 1, 2005

In a defiant speech yesterday, President George W. Bush 
assured a nation uneasy about the war in Iraq that "we're 
helping the Iraqis build a free society, with inclusive 
democratic institutions that will protect the interests 
of all Iraqis."

But the question remains: Can Iraq edge closer to democracy 
while under foreign occupation? The answer is that American
occupation, with its daily violence and infringements, only 
empowers radical voices in Iraq, making civil war - not 
democracy - the more likely outcome. The path to stability
in Iraq remains withdrawing, not sustaining, U.S. forces.

Nearly three years after the American invasion and expenditure 
of approximately $300 billion, the United States has become 
the symbol of the hapless occupation. A variety of polls 
surveying Iraqi opinion all stress the alarming news that 
Iraqis, on average, are now identifying the American forces 
as "occupiers."

In such a tense political atmosphere, the voices of moderation 
are likely to be displaced by Shia radicals, Sunni extremists 
and Kurdish separatists. The persistence of violence and 
instability will only inflame nationalistic hostility to 
the occupation, further affirming the spurious claims of
radicals regarding America's rapacious nature and further 
validating their strategy of armed resistance.

The United States now faces the dilemma of other imperial 
powers in the Middle East as its occupation generates its 
own pathologies, insurgency and terrorism.

Nor can the elections serve as a necessary panacea. The 
elections in Iraq are not just reinforcing sectarian 
identities, but also increasingly evolving around 
nationalistic themes of sovereignty and independence. 
Iraq today remains the only Arab country occupied by an 
external power, a reality that is beginning to be 
objectionable to aspiring Iraqi politicians seeking
electoral advantage.

In a recent Cairo meeting with other Arab leaders, the one 
thing that the contending representatives of the Shia, Sunni 
and Kurdish communities readily agreed on was the need for 
the full restoration of independence.

As many leading Democrats here are belatedly recognizing, 
the only way to stem the insurgent tide is to announce that 
the American forces will withdraw on a fixed timetable.

Bush, in yesterday's speech at the U.S. Naval Academy, 
customarily decried such a policy. "Setting an artificial 
deadline to withdraw," he said, "would send a signal to our 
enemies that if they wait long enough, America will cut and 
run and abandon its friends."

The president's curious logic ignores the fact that the 
determination of the insurgents is not predicated on the 
longevity of the U.S. presence. Indeed, in three years of 
occupation without a deadline, the insurgency has only
grown - in geographic scope, in the potency of its tactics 
and in the sophistication of its operations.

Far from intensifying the insurgency, a responsible American
withdrawal plan will compel pragmatic forces within Iraq 
society to step forward and renegotiate a new national 
compact for their country. A pledge to withdraw will alter 
the debate from U.S. occupation to the future of Iraq. In 
such a political arena the insurgency will be confined to 
the margins of the society.

Having invaded Iraq, the United States does have a moral 
obligation to see to its reconstitution. But that effort 
should be channeled through the United Nations. Transferring 
authority to the UN can generate greater international 
participation by countries deterred by the Bush 
administration's unilateralism and arrogance.

America's problem in Iraq is neither one of irresolution 
nor a more adroit management of the occupation, but the 
incongruity of an occidental power seeking to superimpose 
its claims on a recalcitrant populace. The insurgency
confronted by the United States is not merely Sunni 
resistance but a nationalistic rejection of external 
domination. The persistence of U.S. occupation only serves 
the cause of rebels and radicals. The only way to redeem 
the original promise of freedom and stability for Iraqis 
is for America to withdraw.

<http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-optak014533737dec01,0,6369782,print.story\
?coll=ny-viewpoints-headlines>







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