http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/790/re6.htm

Running from the blood

Francis Fukuyama's change of heart on Iraq comes too late and at too high a 
price, writes Firas Al-Atraqchi 

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In the past 18 months or so, media observers have witnessed a change in focus 
in US newspapers and broadcast television. Headlines of US accomplishments in 
Iraq slowly slipped from the foreground to be replaced with disparaging remarks 
of officials from both sides of the political divide. Criticism of the Bush 
presidency -- unheard of in the first two years after the events of 9/11 -- 
became the jeux du jour as mainstream media admitted its mistakes in reporting 
the "weapons of mass destruction" (WMD) issue and promised better coverage of 
Iraq events.

That coverage leaves much to be desired. US media on Iraq is still lacking in 
depth and veracity. Nonetheless, there has been one recurrent theme: Iraq is on 
the throes of a chaotic post- Saddam pre-Iranian-style theocracy because of 
poor planning and a lack of American insight. Finally, the media is admitting 
that not only was US intelligence utterly wrong -- if not outright moulded to 
fit political whims -- on Iraq's WMD, but that planning for the post-conflict 
scenario was at best incompetent.

Therefore, it was not surprising to see Francis Fukuyama, erstwhile 
neo-conservative pundit and author, reverse course on his once 
over-enthusiastic desire for a pre-emptive invasion of Iraq and admit he had 
been wrong. In his 1992 The End of History, Fukuyama wrote of the urgent need 
to transport ideals of liberal democracy as practised in the United States to 
the four corners of the world. It was, effectively, an archetypal 
neo-conservative manifesto. But in his 2006 America at the Crossroads, Fukuyama 
has abandoned his neo-conservative zeal and come out in force condemning the 
Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war, the notion that democracy can 
be so easily planted in the heart of undemocratic societies, and the misplaced 
notion that America will be loved for intervening in global conflicts.

The heated vitriol against Fukuyama came quickly and unceremoniously from 
former neo-conservative allies. Writing in the 28 March issue of The Washington 
Post, fellow neo- conservative and pro-invasion foghorn Charles Krauthammer 
criticises Fukuyama as bending to popular sentiment: "After public opinion had 
turned against the war, Fukuyama then courageously came out against it."

The war of words escalated when Fukuyama inferred he was the target of a 
witch-hunt against pro-war dissenters and that he had every right to change his 
mind. "In our ever-more polarised political debate, it appears that it is now 
wrong to ever change your mind, even if empirical evidence from the real world 
suggests you ought to," he wrote in the 9 April issue of The Los Angeles Times.

Fukuyama points to early signs of his unease with the Bush doctrine of 
pre-emption. He says that on the first and second anniversaries of 9/11 he 
began to question whether the US could actually secure Iraqi democracy, calling 
it a "roll of the dice". He also says Iraq should not have been invaded without 
UN consensus.

Loath as I am to agree with him, Krauthammer is absolutely right in his 
criticism that Fukuyama easily bends with the popular winds. Fukuyama is at 
best disingenuous and at worse an opportunistic coward. His defence -- claiming 
he had stood against the war before the invasion -- is immaterial. By that 
time, the military juggernaut was in full motion, with news now emerging that 
the Iraq war was conceived before the Bush administration came to power, and 
catapulted into full throttle after 9/11.

It is also a historic imperative to remind Fukuyama that immediately after the 
tragic deaths of nearly 3,000 Americans on 11 September 2001, he urged an 
invasion of Iraq. Writing in a 20 September 2001 letter to President George 
Bush, Fukuyama says: "It may be that the Iraqi government provided assistance 
in some form to the recent attack on the United States. But even if evidence 
does not link Iraq directly to the attack, any strategy aiming at the 
eradication of terrorism and its sponsors must include a determined effort to 
remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Failure to undertake such an effort 
will constitute an early and perhaps decisive surrender in the war on 
international terrorism."

This does not sound like the same man who would one year later be unsure. In 
fact, Fukuyama was so sure of what he said that he favoured "any strategy" that 
would remove Saddam. Indeed, riding on the wave of passionate calls for revenge 
and indiscriminate slaughter echoed in the media, Fukuyama stood as a major 
proponent of the war on Iraq.

Fukuyama's apologia and desperate search for absolution is also overshadowed by 
the pivotal role he played in the formation of Project for the New American 
Century (PNAC). Boasting such neo-conservatives as Scooter Libby, Jeb Bush, 
Dick Cheney, William Kristol, Zalmay Khalilzad, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald 
Rumsfeld, Donald Kagan and Frank Gaffney, among others, the PNAC called for a 
Pax Americana and the securing of America's global geopolitical interests. In 
1997, the PNAC urged then President Bill Clinton to launch a pre-emptive war on 
Iraq, citing Saddam Hussein as the principal threat to US interests. Fukuyama 
signed the letter sent to the White House.

In 2000, the PNAC published a report entitled, Rebuilding America's Defences: 
Strategies, Forces and Resources for a New Century which said: "The United 
States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional 
security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate 
justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf 
transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein."

It is understandable that the reader may see the words "Iraq" and "Saddam 
Hussein" and quickly forget the bigger picture. The invasion of Iraq was but 
the first step of many. "Transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein," 
indicates that the importance of Iraq as a pawn on a greater geopolitical 
chessboard has not yet been played out.

Iraq was "liberated", not invaded; Hussein was deposed and stands trial, and 
Iraq is now on the path to democracy, goes the neo-conservative line of 
thought. US analysts said Iraq would be the blossoming model of liberty for 
other nations and peoples to emulate. That was the plan as was published, 
discussed and ultimately trashed by the media as the oil-rich country succumbed 
to foreign parlay and chaos.

That's when Fukuyama jumped ship. Writing in The Los Angeles Times, Fukuyama 
says it does not matter when he changed course on Iraq, only that he did. But 
this is a subtle form of escaping the consequence of the discourse and policies 
he helped set in motion. Iraq is in shambles, much to the chagrin of the Bush 
administration, which blamed the media for not reporting "good news". The media 
fired back that there was scant good news to report.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has said that Iraq is in the throes of an 
undeclared civil war. Retired General Anthony Zinni has called for Rumsfeld's 
resignation while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says thousand of mistakes 
were made in Iraq. Libby has reportedly said controversial leaks were 
authorised by Bush himself and Khalilzad continues to warn of Iran's role in 
Iraq.

In the three years since Fukuyama's great Iraq plan unfolded, more than 2,350 
US soldiers have been killed and at least 18,000 wounded. At least 208 
coalition troops have been killed and an unknown number wounded. At least 
100,000 Iraqis -- possibly double, or more -- have been killed in the said 
period, with numbers of wounded, disfigured and maimed unknown because the 
Iraqi Ministry of Health does not provide such information. 

Iraq's vital oil industry is on the verge of collapse, unemployment is rising, 
and reconstruction has ground to a halt with many necessary facilities and 
utilities out of service. An insurgency rages alongside a vicious 
sectarian-fuelled death squad campaign. Hundreds of mosques have been 
destroyed, kidnappings occur in broad daylight, journalists are hunted and 
several cities are virtually under siege. There is no viable Iraqi government 
in place.

It would be one thing if Fukuyama changed his mind about a theatre production 
he reviewed, or chose to buy a sedan instead of a convertible. But with 
thousands of lives in the meat grinder, Fukuyama's change of heart is nothing 
short of criminal.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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