http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=33321
Sunday, July 23, 2006
Somalia slides towards war
NAIROBI -- Neglected by the world for years, Somalia appears on the verge
of a war that could escalate into a major regional conflict and play into the
hands of hardline militia.
Six weeks after taking Mogadishu and other southern towns, the militia
are engaged in an increasingly bellicose standoff with a fragile,
Ethiopian-backed interim government based in the provincial town of Baidoa.
With militia moving their closest yet to Baidoa this week, and witnesses
saying Ethiopian soldiers have poured over the border to defend the government,
the prospect of yet another major conflict in Somalia has risen sharply.
"The risk of full-scale war increases by the day," said John Prendergast,
of the International Crisis Group, citing the government's "foolish" boycott of
peace talks in Sudan and what he called provocative militia movements.
While Ethiopia is apparently spoiling for a fight, warning it will crush
the militia if they attack Baidoa, another regional player -- Eritrea -- is
playing a lesser-known but also influential role on the other side, analysts
and diplomats say.
Already criticised by the United Nations for funnelling arms to the
militia during their rise to power in Mogadishu earlier this year, the
Eritreans are continuing to supply weapons, funds and personnel, the experts
believe.
"The Eritrean support is the backbone of the militia military structure,"
said one analyst, who has close contacts with all sides in the Somali crisis
but asked not to be named.
"In Mogadishu, the Eritrean presence is everywhere. Believe me, I've seen
them."
Ethiopia's motives are obvious: it wishes to remain the dominant power in
the Horn of Africa; it has traditionally sought to influence Somalia and
contain radical Islam there; and it fears Islamist aspirations in its Ogaden
ethnic Somali region.
Eritrea's thinking is less clear -- beyond hatred of Ethiopia.
Asmara became independent in 1991 after a 30-year uprising and later
fought a border conflict with Ethiopia. "It is purely to obstruct Ethiopia that
the Eritreans are getting involved in Somalia, they don't have big past links
or interests," said an African diplomat who tracks the Horn.
Both Addis Ababa and Asmara deny any presence in Somalia, but their
statements are taken with a pinch of salt by many. -- Reuters
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