http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/747444.html


Last update - 01:42 08/08/2006


ANALYSIS: Deployment of Lebanese army may be good for both sides

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff


The death of 15 Israelis from Katyushas on Sunday in Kfar Giladi and Haifa 
moves the ground operation of the Israel Defense Forces in an expected 
direction: deeper into Lebanon. 

Senior officers said it seemed that after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to 
the Northern Command headquarters Monday, authorization would be given to 
expand the ground operation at least to the Litani River. But then came 
Hezbollah's surprising agreement to the deployment of 15,000 soldiers of the 
Lebanese army in the south.

It is not clear how the pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud will fulfill his 
responsibility in this regard, or whether the deployment will be part of 
Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarming of Hezbollah.



The Lebanese government's dramatic declaration was preceded by Lebanese Prime 
Minister Fouad Siniora's speech at the Arab foreign ministers' conference in 
Beirut where he burst into tears at the "40 Lebanese civilians" (turned out to 
be considerably less) who were supposedly killed by Israel. 

Siniora might have been weeping because the war may well place his country into 
the hands of Syria and Iran once again.

The Lebanese initiative will improve Beirut's bargaining position in demanding 
changes to the U.S.-France draft proposal. Israel may find a real achievement 
in the deployment - compliance with its original demand before the idea of the 
multinational force surfaced.

If there is no change in the next 24 hours, as a result of Siniora's initiative 
and international involvement, the army will get the green light to advance to 
the Litani River and to some points beyond.

Israel is faring better against middle- and long-range rockets than the 
Katyushas. The moment Hezbollah fires a rocket, chances are good the IDF will 
locate and destroy the launcher, although Hezbollah is using them sparingly.

Hezbollah still has about 10,000 Katyushas, or 50 days' worth, fired mostly 
from the area south of Litani. IDF intelligence says the ground incursion is 
necessary to strike at the Katyushas. The turning point, intelligence says, 
will come with a mass ground operation to the Litani. 

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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