SBY-JK (Syukron Banget Ya- Jazakumullah Khoir) salam, aris
--- Ari Condrowahono <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Dulu saya sering mempertanyakan pada champion gender > ala Jepang, Pak > Abdul Latif, Jehan dll...kenapa sih pertumbuhan > penduduk Jepang > nyaris minus? Apa perempuannya pada ngambeg? Penulis > di bawah ini > rupanya setuju. > > Lesson learned? > "Kalau nggak kepingin populasi penduduk naik turun > seperti yoyo, > beri perhatian pada status perempuan di dalam dan di > luar rumah" > > Salam > Mia > > http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp? > fileid=20050901.F04&irec=3 > > The worrisome decline of the Japanese population > Gwynne Dyer, London > > The Japanese have known it was coming for years, but > it still > arrived sooner than anyone expected. The Japanese > population has > gone into absolute decline, and there will be at > least 60,000 fewer > Japanese at the end of this year than there were > last January. In > coming years, the decline will only accelerate. > > It's the same elsewhere in East Asia. Last week, the > National > Statistical Office in Seoul announced that South > Korea's total > fertility rate (the number of babies the average > woman has in a > lifetime) has now plummeted to 1.16, even lower than > Japan's. > China's looks better at 1.7, but that is deceptive > because there is > a 15 percent surplus of boys over girls in the > youngest population > groups. All these countries' populations are going > to start falling > steeply over the next generation. > > The obvious explanation is that the East Asian > countries, as they > educate their people and turn into fully developed > societies, are > simply following the well-beaten path first traveled > by the European > countries. Italy, after all, has a total fertility > rate of only 1.4, > and Russia's is down to 1.3: If these trends > persist, there will 15 > million fewer Italians by mid-century, and 40 > million fewer > Russians. But the obvious explanation is probably > wrong, because not > all developed countries have collapsing birth-rates. > > > In countries that have attract large numbers of > immigrants, like the > United States, Canada and Australia, the population > will continue to > grow or at least remain stable, but they are not > relevant to the > East Asian case. China, Japan or Korea could easily > attract > immigrants in large numbers, but they could not > integrate them: > Their citizens simply cannot believe that a new > arrival from the > Philippines, Iran or Ethiopia could ever become a > full member of the > host society. However, some European countries are > holding their > populations without mass immigration. > > The average fertility rate in France, to pick the > most striking > example, is 1.9. That is not quite enough in itself > to keep the > population stable over the long term, as the > "replacement" rate is > 2.2, but it is close enough to the replacement level > that a > relatively small flow of immigrants guarantees > continued growth in > the population. The French population, now close to > 60 million, is > forecast by the United Nations to be 63.5 million in > 2025. So what > are the French doing right? > > France and Japan are both fully industrialized, > highly urbanized, > very well-educated countries with generous social > services. They are > both places where it is very expensive to have > children. And both > countries have experienced extreme fluctuations in > their birth-rates > in response to changing conditions. > > Japan's population almost doubled in the > half-century after 1945, > from 70 to 125 million. If current trends persist, > it will be back > down to 70 million before the end of this century. > France's > population, by contrast, was already 40 million in > 1840, but it then > stopped growing for a hundred years, mainly because > it remained a > largely rural country and generations of farmers > limited their > children in order to keep the land together. Then > the rapid post-war > urbanization of France ended the obsession with > land, and in the > past half-century the population has grown from 40 > to 60 million. It > is still growing, albeit slowly. Why? > > The biggest difference between France and Japan is > the status of > women. Japanese women have a low status in the > family, and despite > the occasional female high-flyer they have an even > lower status in > the workforce (which they are generally expected to > leave after they > marry). As a result, they have effectively gone on > strike: The > average age of Japanese women at marriage is going > up by several > months each year, and the birth-rate has collapsed. > > In France, by contrast, the traditional > male-dominated family is all > but dead -- almost half of all French children are > born "out of > wedlock" -- but informal new styles of family living > give women more > control over their lives while still providing > secure environments > for most children. And the main thing women do with > their freedom is > to stay in the workforce: 80 percent of French women > between 24 and > 49 work, the highest rate in the EU. > > It's not just about money; it's about independence > and satisfaction > with one's life. The French government helps its > female citizens > with free child-care (even for the very young), with > subsidized > vacation camps during the school holidays, and with > tax breaks and > family allowances for bigger families, but other > countries do the > same with much less impact on the birth-rate. The > three-child family > is still a normal phenomenon among the French middle > class because > French women do not feel they must choose between > motherhood and a > real life outside the house. > > There are no immediately useful lessons in this for > East Asian > societies, since changing popular attitudes on > gender roles take > decades or generations. For the many countries that > are still in > the "demographic transition" and working to get > their birth-rates > down to 3.0 or even 4.0, it is bound to seem a > distant, hypothetical > problem. But there is a lesson for everybody here. > > The lesson is this: If you don't want your country's > population to > fluctuate like a yo-yo on a fifty-year string, pay > attention to > women's status inside and outside the family. > ===http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=32359 > > > > JAPAN: Wives Stash Cash to Freedom > Suvendrini Kakuchi > > > === message truncated === Kemajuan mustahil terjadi tanpa perubahan. Dan, mereka yang tak bisa mengubah pemikirannya tak bisa mengubah apa pun. (George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950) pustaka tani prohumasi nuraulia __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com
