http://www.kommersant.com/p799480/r_528/macroeconomics/


*Liquidity Crisis Solved with Money*


The outflow of speculative capital from *Russia* that began in July does not
look like a counterweight to inflation yet. According to Central Bank data,
as of August 1, the money mass (M2 aggregate) was continuing to grow and had
topped 50 percent year-on-year again in July. At the same time, instability
is ending. In spite of the fact that the Central Bank broke another record
with repo deals – 271.8 billion rubles ($10.6 billion), the situation is
becoming calmer. The Central Bank also raised the ruble against the currency
basket ($0,55 и €0,45) by 2 kopecks. Banks' expectations for after the
crisis are not rosy.


A Lombard credit auction for 14 days at 7 percent was called off yesterday,
but the Central Bank expressed its willingness to credit banks at the same
rate for 7 days. Although the interbank credit rate remains high
(8.43percent for one day,
7.43 percent for 2-7 days), demand related to tax payments is falling. Trust
investment bank trader Evgeny Garipov commented that "Some market
participants have a noticeable good mood, connected with hopes for the end
of the pay period."

The Central Bank published new data on key inflation indicators recently.
The M2 aggregate was hardly influenced by the outflow of capital from Russia
on August 1, when it was 10.92 trillion rubles. That was an increase
of 0.6percent over July 1. That was slight compared to the dynamics of
its growth
between April and June, 5-7 percent monthly. But the growth of M3 exceeded
50 percent again, reaching 51.2 percent. The price of oil remains high. The
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade yesterday predicted that
inflation for August would be 0.2 percent. That is the same rate as in
August of last year.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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