http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html
A cold spell soon to replace global warming
MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) Stock up on fur coats and felt
boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.
Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the
17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of
and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a
natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial
precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular
salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is
another, principal reasonsolar activity and luminosity. The greater they are
the warmer is our climate.
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are
caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The
latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo
Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of
its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012.
Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will
last for 50-60 years or even longer.
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the
hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide,
warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the
late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel
Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not
undergone any serious check.
It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizationsin
particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of
scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts
of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a
result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial
pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixotes duel with the
windmill?
Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming.. At any rate, there is
no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is
too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes
are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is
not so much radiated in space as carried by air currentsan entirely different
mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.
The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the
atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissionsa
point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice
shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research
station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we
cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect..
Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide
concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the
greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than
in the atmosphere. When the oceans surface warms up, it produces the
champagne effect. Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine
pouring smoothly when served properly cold.
Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which
evaporates to add to industrial pollutiona factor we cannot deny. However,
man-caused pollution is negligible here. If industrial pollution with carbon
dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not
change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small
for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions
doubles.
Carbon dioxide cannot be bad for the climate. On the contrary, it is food for
plants, and so is beneficial to life on Earth. Bearing out this point was the
Green Revolutionthe phenomenal global increase in farm yields in the mid-20th
century. Numerous experiments also prove a direct proportion between harvest
and carbon dioxide concentration in the air.
Carbon dioxide has quite a different pernicious influencenot on the climate
but on synoptic activity. It absorbs infrared radiation. When tropospheric air
is warm enough for complete absorption, radiation energy passes into gas
fluctuations. Gas expands and dissolves to send warm air up to the
stratosphere, where it clashes with cold currents coming down. With no
noticeable temperature changes, synoptic activity skyrockets to whip up
cyclones and anticyclones. Hence we get hurricanes, storms, tornados and other
natural disasters, whose intensity largely depends on carbon dioxide
concentration. In this sense, reducing its concentration in the air will have a
positive effect.
Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is
many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind.
Mans influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.
Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster. Of all the planets in
the solar system, only Earth has an atmosphere beneficial to life. There are
many factors that account for development of life on Earth: Sun is a calm star,
Earth is located an optimum distance from it, it has the Moon as a massive
satellite, and many others. Earth owes its friendly climate also to dynamic
feedback between biotic and atmospheric evolution.
The principal among those diverse links is Earths reflective power, which
regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic
evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation
and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period.
What cant be cured must be endured. It is wise to accept the natural course of
things. We have no reason to panic about allegations that ice in the Arctic
Ocean is thawing rapidly and will soon vanish altogether. As it really is,
scientists say the Arctic and Antarctic ice shields are growing. Physical and
mathematical calculations predict a new Ice Age. It will come in 100,000 years,
at the earliest, and will be much worse than the previous. Europe will be
ice-bound, with glaciers reaching south of Moscow.
Meanwhile, Europeans can rest assured. The Gulf Stream will change its course
only if some evil magic robs it of power to reach the northbut Mother Nature
is unlikely to do that.
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian
Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.
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