Hugo Chavez sudah sampaikan pada hari diberitakan kemenagan Ahmedinejad.
----- Original Message -----
From: Satrio Arismunandar
To: [email protected] ; Forum Kompas ;
[email protected] ; [email protected] ; ppiindia ; nasional list
; news Trans TV ; kampus tiga ; Pers Indonesia ; sastra pembebasan
Sent: Tuesday, June 16, 2009 11:11 AM
Subject: [PersIndonesia] Kenapa SBY belum mengucapkan selamat pada Presiden
Iran Ahmadinejad?
Kenapa Indonesia belum memberi ucapan selamat kepada Ahmadinejad, yang
terpilih lagi dalam pemilihan Presiden Iran?
Kabarnya Jusuf Kalla sudah memberi ucapan selamat, tetapi dalam
kapasitas pribadi. Karena, untuk mewakili Indonesia, harus SBY selaku Presiden
RI.
Kalah cepat lagi nih!
======================================================
The Iranian People Speak
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian
people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our
nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed
Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual
apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the
voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad' s principal
opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of
Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare.
Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the
government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken
by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series
over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country,
field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the
region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was
funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
The breadth of Ahmadinejad' s support was apparent in our preelection
survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as
an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri
voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1
over Mousavi.
Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as
harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of
Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year- olds comprised
the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.
The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading
or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the
highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians
were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror
the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility
that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.
Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found
simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to
pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically
risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For
instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters
-- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to
elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote.
Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most
important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the
national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice
publicly in a largely authoritarian society.
Indeed, and consistently among all three of our surveys over the past
two years, more than 70 percent of Iranians also expressed support for
providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not
develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment.
And 77 percent of Iranians favored normal relations and trade with the United
States, another result consistent with our previous findings.
Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal
relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for
Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather,
Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person
best positioned to bring home a favorable deal -- rather like a Persian Nixon
going to China.
Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further
isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence
against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States,
jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent,
with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all
independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of
President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.
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