> From: Rovicky Dwi Putrohari <[email protected]> >> Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2009, 8:22 AM > http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/11/business/4491106&sec=business > > Mungkin anda minder dengan Malaysia, tapi koran lokal Kuala > Lumpur kemarin (11 August 09) memuat artikel yg isinya Indonesia > memiliki peluang lebih baik dari Malaysia, bahkan mungkin menyamai > China ... > Bahkan bom-pun tak mampu menggoyahkan .. .. .. TAPI Ingat ini > "peluang", bukan 'kepastian'. Tergantung bagaimana kita > memanfaatkan peluang ini. > > Indonesia .... KAMU (pasti) BISA ! > > dibawah ini email dari kawan Malaysian > ________________________________ > From: Joseph, Tony > To: Putrohari, Rovicky > Sent: Tue Aug 11 17:59:35 2009 > Subject: Indonesia growth > > I agree with this writer: > > http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/11/business/4491106&sec=business > > Indonesia has better business fundamentals than Malaysia in > next 15 years. > > > Rgds, > Tony Joseph > > Tuesday August 11, 2009 > Indonesia may grow as fast as China > Singular Vision - By Teoh Kok Lin > > > Indonesia – the next economic powerhouse > > I WAS in Singapore on July 17, meeting up with some fund > manager friends when news broke about the bombings in Jakarta. The > initial reaction was of sadness and sympathy for the victims and > Indonesia in general. > > We also thought that it could be an opportunity to invest > more in Indonesia’s stock market if it were to correct sharply. > > The Jakarta Stock Exchange opened down 2% that morning but > quickly recovered within hours and closed the day down by only 0.5%. > > While the hunch did not turn out to be correct, > Indonesia’s stock market reaction illustrates that investors today have much > more confidence in the country’s management. > > Similarly, Indonesia’s government also clearly projected > its financial confidence later that day when it went ahead and > successfully sold 35 billion yen (US$375mil) 10-year samurai bonds to global > investors. > > Indonesia is no longer a developing economy dependent > largely on agriculture and mining. Politically and economically, it > has been transformed since the end of the Asian financial crisis in > 1999. > > My many visits to Indonesia over the past few years, doing > the leg work of speaking to many company directors, investment > analysts, bankers and so on, have convinced me that Indonesia is on a > very strong and progressive path, especially in the last two to > three years. > > In a way, Indonesia is in a similar situation as China was > 10 years ago, when the vast Chinese population moved beyond the > subsistence level and consumption power was increasing with accumulated > wealth as the economy grew at a fast pace. > > Today, Indonesia may already be on the cusp of such a transition. > > We know Indonesia has the basic ingredients for success, among which are: > > ·The fourth largest population in the world at 226 million > – which also means a big domestic consumer base; > > ·Huge natural resources – Indonesia is the largest > producer of palm oil in the world and is a major producer of crude oil, > natural gas, iron ore, tin, lead, gold, etc.; and > > ·Young urban population – 50% of Indonesians live in > urban areas (a rate higher than in China or India) and more than 52% of > the population is aged 20-54. Dynamic young urban population’s > productivity growth would be at a faster pace with the > right economic environment. > > There are compelling reasons to believe that with the right > catalysts, Indonesia may grow as fast as China or faster in the years > ahead. > > Among the key catalysts for Indonesia to emerge as an > economic star in the global economy are: > > ·Leadership in Jakarta continues to provide political > stability and sound economic policies: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono > did a good job steering the economy in his first term and he was > re-elected with a strong 60% of the popular vote for another five-year term > on July 8. > > Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party holds the most parliamentary > seats (150) and with his coalition holding more than 56% of > parliamentary seats, Yudhoyono will have more say now than during his first > term when his > party held fewer seats (55) than other coalition partners. > > The current leadership team has a good track record and > credentials in managing the economy; that includes the Vice > President-elect Boediono, > who was Finance Minister and Central Bank governor before, > and the current Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, both of > whom are well respected technocrats. > > ·Infrastructure development: Indonesia has a pressing need > for great infrastructure like many developing nations. > > The mega infrastructure proposed during the first term of > Yudhoyono’s presidency did not take off well, but with Yudhoyono now > having greater control over the parliament, this is likely to change. > > In response to the economic downturn, Indonesia set aside > US$7.5bil in the 2009 budget for infrastructure spending and an > additional US$703mil for labour intensive infrastructure projects. > > Infrastructure development will help spur economic growth, improve > efficiency in Indonesia, much like how such investments > boosted the economies of Malaysia in the 1990s and China in 2000s. > > ·Banking system reform continues to provide the lifeblood > for the economy to grow: The banking system underwent drastic > reform after the Asian financial crisis with the Indonesia Bank > Restructuring Agency, resulting in the demise of insolvent banks and > ownership changes in major private banks. > > The recapitalisation and reform resulted in one of the most > liberalised banking systems in Asia, with little > restrictions on foreign ownership. > > The banking reform also fostered healthy competition and > that in turn has benefited many Indonesian companies and consumers alike. > > In Indonesia, the household debt to gross domestic product > ratio is 11.2, one of the lowest in the region when compared with > Taiwan (53.8), Hong Kong (53.2) or Malaysia (46.7). > > This means that consumers not only have room to borrow for large > purchases such as cars and homes, but banks also have huge > opportunities to sell their loans to Indonesian households. > > Ten years ago, banks preferred to lend to big corporations > and the > average Indonesian would have difficulty getting consumer > financing, > plus they would have had to pay interest rates in excess of > 20% a > year. > > Today, Indonesian banks are actively courting consumers to > borrow from them. > > In addition, the bank base lending rates have declined > substantially > (see chart) and home mortgage rates, for example, are now > below 10%, > the lowest ever. > > ·Confidence of Indonesians in their economy and stock > markets: People I met over the past two to three years, from senior > management of companies to young executives, are confident about the > prospects in Indonesia. This is also a reflection of how they > overwhelmingly voted for Yudhoyono this past election. > > Recent events have proved that Indonesia has not only the > economic resilience but also the confidence to be a major economic > powerhouse in the future. > > Indonesia is moving in the right direction to be a > formidable global economic powerhouse. > > The rest of Asia should view the emergence of Indonesia not > as a threat, but as a motivation for healthy competition. > > Just like the emergence of China, which helped advance the > economies of North Asia such as Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and > Macau in the past 20 years, I believe Indonesia’s economic growth in > the next decade will do the same for South-East Asia. > > > Teoh Kok Lin is the founder and chief investment officer of > Singular Asset Management Sdn Bhd. Readers’ feedback to this > article is welcomed. Please email to [email protected] > > -- > http://rovicky.wordpress.com/2009/08/10/krisis-ekonomi-sampai-kapan/ > >
