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State of Fear in Indonesia's Palace
Written by Our Correspondent
Monday, 23 November 2009
A deepening scandal threatens President Yudhoyono
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is in deep trouble.
More than likely, fear pervades the palace these days. Fear that the
president's political opponents are planning a serious attack. Fear that the
media are intent on malicious rumor-mongering about unproven allegations that a
US$700 million bailout of failed Bank Century last November was used to finance
the president's political party. Fear that stern action against the police and
attorney general's office over the mess involving what appear to be fraudulent
charges against officers of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) will
not solve the problem but exacerbate it.
Such fear can result in paralysis that reinforces a public perception
that either the president is incompetent or has some hidden motive for stalling.
One manifestation of fear is also anger. Palace insiders say that
Yudhoyono has become more emotional and thin-skinned than usual as the
intertwined scandals dominate the news. If true, he is building a wall between
himself and those who might talk straight and bring him clear-eyed advice.
Classically, this is where palace courtiers step in, whispering that
conspiracies are afoot. These opportunists endear themselves to an embattled
president by playing on his insecurities and suspicions. They become the main
architects of a siege mentality, a common affliction for those caught in a
political maelstrom.
It is precisely in these situations that people in power often make
critical mistakes and inadvertently become their own worst enemies.
This is, of course, partly conjecture. I don't know precisely the
president's state of mind. But we can be fairly sure that fear and palace
intrigue prevails because there are no obvious or easy solutions to the current
complex web of scandals. It is a mess and Yudhoyono's political survival is at
stake. We have seen the rise of sycophants and the poisonous atmosphere that
can accompany a crisis before in Indonesian politics. Think of the last days of
Suharto and the disastrous consequences of that period for the nation.
This is not to say that Yudhoyono should not be wary of his opponents.
Opposition leaders are notorious for their predatory instincts, and already we
can see them sharpening their knives inside the House of Representatives as
they prepare to investigate the Bank Century bailout. Should Yudhoyono continue
to appear weak and lose popularity as a result of the KPK debacle, there is
little doubt that one spillover effect will be a rising consensus inside the
House to use Bank Century as a tool for tightening the noose - such are the
ways of predators.
But there is enough time to avert disaster. Public opinion, although
critical of the president, has not hardened. In general, most Indonesians still
like and trust their president. Moreover, after years of hard work to build a
stronger economy and political stability, Indonesians take pride in their
accomplishments and enjoy their rising regional status. Few would want a repeat
of 1998.
Yudhoyono might not be perfect, but it is clear from this year's
elections that the majority of voters consider him a reasonable choice, given
the alternatives. I am sure they would prefer that Yudhoyono find an elegant
solution to this ordeal.
What, then, can the president do to avert disaster?
Foremost, the president must get it straight in his mind what he can and
cannot do. He is right to say that he cannot play the role of a judge or
short-circuit the legal system. He cannot force the police and attorney
general's office to follow the recommendations of Team 8, the fact-finding body
he established to ascertain the truth of who bribed whom in the squabble
between the national police and the KPK - and so far both institutions are
unwilling to succumb to public pressure.
Yudhoyono should realize that it is nearly impossible for the current
chief of police or the attorney general to treat the KPK case in an objective
and fair manner.
What he can do, and is allowed to do, is order the resignations of senior
officials of the police and attorney general's office. He must be seen as the
man in charge and do whatever it takes to make sure they leave. He could argue,
quite effectively I am sure, that ordering their resignations is based not on
presuming anybody's guilt or innocence, but rather is by virtue of the fact
that, given the extraordinary circumstances, none of them would be able to
carry out their duties without prejudice.
More important, Yudhoyono should tell the nation that the problem does
not stop with the KPK imbroglio: Any future actions and decisions taken by the
existing officials could easily be questioned. In other words, regardless of
who may be right or wrong, the fact remains that unless these men are removed
from office, they risk making their institutions dysfunctional - this could
ruin any chances of legal reform.
Second, Yudhoyono must come clean on the Bank Century story and address
allegations that there was illegal use of the bank's funds for his presidential
campaign.
If there were no irregularities, then Yudhoyono should welcome any
investigations and order his political party to support them. On the other
hand, if he cannot conclude with confidence that there was no wrong-doing
within his inner circle, Yudhoyono must find out for himself the entire story
and reveal the truth to the public before the House of Representatives
discovers anything suggestive of deception or lies.
Telling the truth may sound like unusual and unwise advice, but the fact
is that big lies rarely escape detection. As many politicians have learned
before, telling the truth can hurt less than lying.
Indonesians are forgiving. And if mistakes were made, I think the public
would excuse the president if they were to learn that practically all major
political parties have, at one time or another, use public money for the
purpose of financing their campaigns. It would also be the perfect opportunity
to call for a general amnesty and demand reforms in the country's campaign
finance laws.
Yudhoyono could thus emerge from scandal to herald real reform. Given the
dire situation at the moment, a new start for everybody is probably not a bad
idea.
James Van Zorge is a partner in Van Zorge, Heffernan & Associates, a
business strategy and government relations consulting firm based in Jakarta. He
can be reached at [email protected] This e-mail address is being protected from
spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it . This appeared in the
Jakarta Globe
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