http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2293&Itemid=594
The Risk of Travel in Asia
Written by Our Correspondent
Tuesday, 09 February 2010
A new report by International Risk says it's a jungle out there
If you're a businessman, you've got plenty to worry about when you travel
in Asia, according to FTI-International Risk, the Hong Kong-based risk
assessment organization, and maybe it might just pay to stay home for the Year
of the Tiger.
While things are marginally better this year, International Risk says in
its annual report that prudent businessmen need to worry about the kidnapping
of foreigners for ransom by Abu Sayyaf and other Philippines insurgent groups
to raise funds and, while it's less prevalent in the rest of Southeast and
South Asia, Jemaah Islaamiyah and other jihadi groups occasionally use the
tactic as well.
And, the report says, as the July bombings in Jakarta in 2009 and Mumbai
in 2008 show, foreign-owned hotels, shopping centers, and other businesses are
high-value, soft targets. Also, the attempt by Umar Farouk Mutallab, the
23-year-old Nigerian suspected of attempting to bring down a Delta Airlines
jetliner in the US over Christmas is an indication that Al Qaeda has not given
up on its ambitions to strike a blow against aviation and that less-modern
airports could present an easier target.
That adds up to a sensible recommendation to be prudent, but as those who
travel the region know, the chances of being killed are pretty slim.
Nonetheless, as the American writer James Thurber once observed, the chances of
being eaten by a lion on Main Street in an American city are roughly 270,000 to
one. But it only takes once.
Although Asian governments made modest successes in their struggle
against terrorism and extremist political violence in 2009, Pakistan and India
remain locked in mutual distrust, creating one of the world's most dangerous
flashpoints, according to International Risk, which refuses to rule out a
limited nuclear war between the two countries, with substantial combat forces
deployed close to their shared borders.
The risk assessment organization says the threat of terrorist activity in
India is high and severe in Pakistan, and recommends that businessmen not
travel to either Pakistan or southern Thailand, and that they think carefully
about going to the Philippines in the runup to April and May elections - and
stay out of southern Philippines, meaning Mindanao Island, altogether.
Beyond that, International Risk asks two major questions -- whether Asian
governments, especially in the volatile South Asia region, can build on the
last year's gains by continuing to go after terrorist and other militant
groups, or whether they will revert to their traditional approaches of
containment, reacting only when incidents occur. Second, the report asks what
is the state of the two principal terrorist groups in Southeast Asia, the
Indonesia-based Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf, which remains active in the
Southern Phlippines island of Mindanao.
The most serious threat to Southeast Asian security, the organization
says, comes not from terrorist attacks but the Philippines' particularly
violent practice of democracy: "The country is on a high state of alert and
more than 500 locations have been identified as flashpoints for political
violence. Nearly 60 people have already been killed in feuding among political
gangs, which see elected office as a crucial means to gain control of political
power, security forces, and access to lucrative economic returns."
Pakistan, the country most troubled by fundamentalist Islamic-based
unrest, scored substantial gains by going after terrorist and militant
sanctuaries in its Northwest tribal border regions "but it has also been
extremely costly, led to an upsurge in violence, displaced large numbers of
residents, and is politically unpopular. Moreover, the Pakistani military is
worried that these operations may threaten the country's national security as
they divert resources and attention from defending against India, which
military chiefs view as their chief foe. Pakistani military officials have
indicated in the past few weeks that no new offensives are likely against
militants in its border areas for the next 6-12 months.
Any retreat by Pakistan to previous accommodationist policies, the report
continues, would allow the terrorist groups to rebuild their capabilities and
threaten the shaky regime in Islamabad as well as return to launching attacks
against India. In fact, the report says, another Pakistan-inspired terrorist
attack on Indian soil has a strong chance of occurring this year. Domestically,
the country suffered more than 170 violent attacks in 2009 that killed more
than 1,400 people after the government in Islamabad finally decided to tackle
militant and terrorist groups head-on in its tribal border regions. Those
attacks, particularly suicide bombings, have continued without a lull into the
new year.
Although the report continues that the slowdown in 2009 external
terrorist attacks against India may also lead the government in New Delhi to
reduce its sense of urgency and commitment to overhauling its deficient
counter-terrorism capabilities and strategies, that hardly seems likely. In the
wake of the murderous attack on luxury hotels in Mumbai in November of 2008
which took 170 lives, New Delhi has embarked on perhaps the biggest arms and
counterterrorism expansion in the country's history, vowing to spend US$30
billion by 2012 on a bristling package of weapons ranging from supersonic
fighter jets to anti-terrorism gear. (see Asia Sentinel, India's Fighter Wars,
Aug. 24, 2009)
Despite the defense buildup, however, International Risk reports, "The
country's security services remain somewhat fragmented and have, to date, been
unable to forge a cooperative relationship with their counterparts in Pakistan
to prevent future attacks from Pakistani-based terrorist organizations. It may
be virtually impossible for Islamabad and New Delhi to engage in any meaningful
bilateral counter-terrorism cooperation that is essential in preventing more
terrorist attacks, because of the two countries' deep-seated distrust and
enduring hostilities against each other."
While no successful external terrorist attack occurred in India in 2009,
the country is far from secure, the report says that senior Indian security
officials say a dozen foreign-inspired plots were foiled. Although few details
are known of these incidents, Indian and U.S. officials have hinted that they
may be linked with Pakistani terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, which
was responsible for carrying out a large-scale terrorist attack in Mumbai in
November 2008.
Pakistan's elite Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, known
universally by its initials ISI, is widely believe to be continuing its support
for Lashkar-e-Taiba, the jihadi group that organized the devastating Mumbai
bombings, and that its supporters and operatives are increasing despite the
limited crackdown against the organization, primarily because of
Lahskar-e-Taiba's effectiveness at stirring up trouble over the disputed
Kashmir territory.
International Risk is more positive towards efforts in Southeast Asia to
contain Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf. Most of their top leaders have been
captured or killed, their access to funds has been largely cut off and they
have increasingly been driven into remote areas of the Philippines and
Indonesia. Despite the bombings of hotels in Jakarta in 2009 and other
violence, in particular the killing of Mohd Noordin Top, who had eluded
security forces since the Bali bombings of 2002 and 2006, was considered a
major success.
Despite their successes in weakening Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf, the
Indonesian and Philippine governments do not appear complacent and have
continued to maintain a pro-active and adaptive approach in neutralizing the
still-dangerous terrorist threat from these groups. The Indonesian and
Philippine security services have been helped by extensive assistance from the
U.S. and other foreign governments, which has allowed them to adopt
state-of-the-art counter-terrorist practices and capabilities. While Jemaah
Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf may be able to mount limited opportunistic attacks
such as which took place in Jakarta in July 2009, these incidents are likely to
be limited in scope and very occasional
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