http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/printArticle.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=369543&version=1&template_id=46&parent_id=26
It is impossible to predict certain tragedies
Publish Date: Monday,21 June, 2010, at 11:29 PM Doha Time
By Ben Goldacre/Rome
The quake-devasted town of L'Aquila: it would be great if we could have
firm predictions about every risk whose rare but tragic outcome cannot be
accurately predicted
On April 6, 2009, an earthquake registering 6.3 on the moment magnitude scale
hit the town of L'Aquila in Abruzzo, Italy. This was a tragedy, and hundreds of
people died. It would be great if we could have firm predictions about every
risk whose rare but tragic outcome cannot be accurately predicted, whether it
is a flu outbreak, a murder, an illness, or an earthquake. Most of us recognise
that this is impossible.
But some find it harder to accept. The L'Aquila prosecutor's office has now
leapt into action. It has a Commissione Grandi Rischi after all - a "Commission
on Big Risks" - and it's full of seismologists. If these people can't predict
an earthquake, then what's the point of them? And so these seismologists are
now being indicted and investigated for manslaughter, on account of their
failure to warn the population that an earthquake was coming.
You can join various fellows of various royal societies in protesting about
this case at qurl.com/quake. Clearly the Italian government would rather be
informed by scientists who are happier to throw caution to the wind and make
claims in excess of the evidence. Oddly enough, though, that did actually
happen, in the week before the earthquake.
Gioacchino Giuliani is a laboratory technician who became convinced that he was
able to predict earthquakes by measuring the emission of radon from the ground.
He ignored the doubts of seismologists - he has never published his theories
or evidence in an academic journal - and invested in several measuring devices
to let him make his predictions.
Shortly before the earthquake struck, Giuliani became convinced something
serious was coming. He began desperately trying to warn the public, even
posting a video on YouTube explaining his theory, and warning people to
evacuate their houses urgently. Vans loaded with loudspeakers were driven
around the town to spread the warning. Giuliani tried in vain to persuade the
mayor that he was right.
But they did not heed this warning: instead, the local government reported him
to the police for spreading unnecessary panic and alarm, forced him to remove
his warnings from the Internet, and forbade him from telling anyone anything
about the coming earthquake.
In reality, of course, Giuliani made a lucky guess (and he was out by 55km).
Nothing has changed, and there is still no reliable or validated way to predict
an earthquake. Because of this, seismologists around the world are united in
explaining that the best way to protect your population is not through an
impossible early warning system, but rather by investing in preparedness, to
mitigate against the damage done by one rare, unpredictable, horrific outcome.
So you use seismic hazard maps to reliably work out where the risk is greatest,
rather than when. You change the specifications in your building code so homes
are less likely to collapse and crush people to death. You insist on
retrospective modifications to existing structures. You make sure your
population is educated in what to do when the worst happens, and you prepare
your emergency services with enduring supplies of the appropriate equipment.
If, in a political emergency, you find you have failed to do all this to
universal satisfaction: then you can charge some scientists with manslaughter.
But ideally this should be a last resort. - Guardian News and Media
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