> Leszek Miller, Poland's wily man of the future > Apr 19th 2001 > > >From The Economist print edition > > HE MUST be one of Central Europe's canniest survivors > from the communist > era, for Leszek Miller is the only Pole still in the > forefront of politics > who was a member of his country's last Politburo to > take its cue from the > Kremlin. Under the communists, whose memory most Poles > still revile, he was > an eager apparatchik. Yet now, in his shiny new social > democratic guise, he > looks set to become the country's prime minister after > the general election > due this autumn, as the ruling right, under its once- > glorious Solidarity > banner, collapses amid recrimination and muddle. Is Mr > Miller up to the > task? > > If he gets it, he is likely to be in the top job at a > historic moment-just > when Poland joins the European Union. Indeed, Mr Miller > will probably be in > charge of the negotiations as they reach their most > delicate stage, in the > first half of next year. It will be tricky. Two bad > bits of news hit Poland > last week. First, the OECD suggested that nearly 17% of > Poles would soon be > out of a job. Second, the European Commission in > Brussels decided to back a > German proposal that, even when Poland and other > Central European countries > have joined the Union, they must still wait for up to > seven years before > their people can travel freely around the EU looking > for jobs. > > The economic shake-up and job losses following > communism's fall are now > linked in many Polish minds to efforts to prepare the > country for the EU. > But jobless Poles are being denied the safety-valve of > automatic access to > labour markets in the west. If the EU keeps its doors > shut, the poorest > Poles, who have suffered most under the past decade's > rough switch to the > market and who are Mr Miller's natural supporters, > could become very angry. > Some are already. When Romano Prodi, the commission's > head, visited Poland > earlier this year, a few ungrateful Poles pelted him > with eggs. > > Yet, with the election looming, both sides are finding > it ever harder to > make concessions, for fear of looking weak and > unpatriotic in the voters' > eyes. Mr Miller, for example, says that any > transitional period before Poles > can go freely to the west for jobs is "unacceptable". > But privately he must > know that concessions on a host of issues, from the > free movement of labour > to Polish access to farm subsidies, are inevitable if a > deal is to be > struck. In a hint that he recognises as much, he > adds: "We know that Poland > is negotiating to join the EU, not the other way round." > > Certainly the bureaucrats in Brussels trying to clinch > a deal are hoping > that Mr Miller will be flexible when, early next year, > the critical issues > of farming and regional aid will be tackled. But this > is where the sneers of > his compatriots on the right may make him hesitate. His > past, they say, > predisposes him to truckle to foreigners. "Moscow, > Brussels-it's all the > same to him," says one. > > Mr Miller is indeed notably unrepentant about his > communist past-unlike, by > contrast, President Alexander Kwasniewski, another ex- > communist who was once > minister of sport in the old era. Mr Miller, now 54, > still justifies the > ruthless, Soviet-approved imposition of martial law and > the crushing of > dissidence under General Wojciech Jaruzelski in 1981, > when he was an > obedient party hack. "He saved us from something much > worse," says Mr > Miller, meaning the bloodier Soviet repression meted > out in similar > circumstances to Czechs and Hungarians. And, though he > talks the lingo of > social democracy, he still presses the buttons of class > struggle. "In Poland > there are people feeding off rubbish dumps," he says, > bemoaning the widening > gap between rich and poor. > > In fact, Mr Miller has cleverly created a political > persona that bows > loyally to the proletarian past and the old welfare > state while at the same > time praising the market and modernisation. The > nationalist right, at the > heart of the current government, insists-naturally > enough-that under his > fresh veneer Mr Miller is still a dogged socialist who > will readily betray > his country's new-found sovereignty. Some say he still > has a hot line to the > Kremlin and still quietly cherishes old links with the > Russian intelligence > service; some even hint-without hard evidence-that he > got Russian money to > help found his party, the Democratic Left Alliance. He > was, they darkly > point out, interior minister in the ex-communist > government of 1993-97. > > Moreover, he readily acknowledges that his government > would be less friendly > to the Roman Catholic church, long the repository of > Polish nationalism and > a buttress of the right. Mr Miller says he will ease > laws against abortion > and against sex education in schools, and will > legislate to make women more > equal to men. He says he will tilt welfare to give > bigger handouts to the > poorest. Unlike many on the right, he does not > romanticise the countryside; > he was brought up in a small milling town. > > But his style has changed drastically, even in the past > few years. He is > learning English-he spent a month last summer with a > family in > Canterbury-sports natty golf sweaters bought by his > wife, skis in Austria > and tells of his emotion when granted an audience with > the pope. He > expresses admiration for some of the old dissidents he > used to fight > against, such as Adam Michnik and Jacek Kuron. He says > his favourite book is > "The Master and Margarita", the uproarious lampoon of > early Soviet Russia by > Mikhail Bulgakov. All too neat a conversion? "A dancing > monkey auditioning > for a part," is how a sceptical ambassador in Warsaw > describes a meeting > with him. > > But few deny that Mr Miller is a consummate politician, > and a good example > of how much Poland's ex-communists have changed. His > solution to > unemployment? Let the economy grow faster. Taxes on > business and investment > must be cut. It should be easier to hire and fire. > Joining the EU will, he > says, be the third greatest moment in Poland's history, > after its conversion > to Christianity a millennium ago, and the union of > Poland and Lithuania in > 1569, when Poles agreed to be ruled by a Lithuanian > king in a joint domain > that later once stretched from the Baltic to the Black > Sea. "We have no > alternative" to joining the EU, he says. "We can't be > on the outside of a > European civilisation that is prosperous and > democratic; we must modernise > ourselves-and we can't do it alone." > > Copyright © 1995-2001 The Economist Newspaper Group > Ltd. All rights > reserved.
