The Bush Administration my not want a unified Iraq or a unified Islam 
including both Shiite and Sunni. The Bush Administration could be trying 
to silence any voices calling for reconciliation and unification. It 
could be that all the violence in the ME is working in favor of those 
who would use the tactic of divide and conquer to maintain dominance of 
the ME by authoritarian elites allied with the U.S., Israel, and the 
international energy industry. It is possible that the Bush/Maliki 
government is intentionally keeping the ME stew boiling and well stired.

#--------------------------------------

Shiite vs. Sunni?

*In 1609, a terrible thing happened: not terrible in the manner that 
great wars are terrible but in the way that opening Pandora’s Box was 
terrible. King James I of England discovered that dividing people on the 
basis of religion worked like a charm, thus sentencing the Irish to 
almost four centuries of blood and pain. *

If the Bush administration is successful in its current efforts to 
divide Islam by pitting Shi’ites against Sunnis it will revitalize the 
old colonial tactic of divide and conquer, and maintain the domination 
of the Middle East by authoritarian elites allied with the U.S. and the 
international energy industry.

Its vehicle, according to /The New York Times/ 
<http://www-tech.mit.edu/V127/N1/1long4.html>, is an “American backed 
alliance” of several Sunni-dominated regimes, including Saudi Arabia, 
Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt, “along with a Fatah-led Palestine and 
Israel.” The anti-Shiite front will also likely include Turkey and 
Pakistan.


      Iran and Beyond

The target is not simply Iran, but the “Shi’a Crescent,” a term first 
coined by King Abdullah of Jordan. This “Crescent” includes Iran, 
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Alawi-dominated regime of Bashar al-Assad 
in Syria. The Alawites are of Shi’a origin. The Shi’ite-dominated 
government in Iraq is generally excluded because of its alliance with 
the current occupation forces led by the United States and Britain.

Suddenly, rhetoric like the “eastern tide” and the “Persian menace” have 
begun appearing in official newspapers in the region, although the 
average Arab does not view Iran as a threat. A recent Zogby 
International poll 
<http://www.zogby.com/SoundBites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=14570>of Egypt, 
Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates 
(UAE) found that roughly 80% of those polled considered the United 
States and Israel the biggest threats to their security, while only 11% 
listed Iran. Further, fewer than 25% believe Iran should be pressured to 
halt its nuclear program, while 61% think Iran has the right to a 
nuclear program even if it results in nuclear weapons.

In fact, Iran’s opposition to the United States and support for the 
Palestinians is widely popular in the region.

Omayma Abdel-Latif, project coordinator for the Carnegie Middle East 
Center, writes in /Al-Ahram Weekly / 
<http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19047&prog=zgp&proj=zdrl,zme>that
 
“the consensus in both Sunni and Shi’a circles appears to be that 
attempts to emphasize Sunni-Shi’a rivalries are intended to deflect 
attention from both the U.S. occupation of Iraq and continued Israeli 
aggression. That the U.S. is working to fuel such tensions is almost an 
article of faith for Muslims on both sides. In its attempt to create an 
anti-Iran alliance, they say, the U.S. is resorting to a strategy which 
aims to raise the specter of sectarianism across the Muslim world.”

The real U.S. target may be a good deal bigger than simply the Shi’a 
Crescent. “Could it be that the U.S. endgame is to weaken Islam from 
within,” asks Lebanese writer Jihad Azine in /An-Nahar/ 
<http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19047&prog=zgp&proj=zdrl,zme>,
 
“and divert attention from targeting U.S. interests to targeting the 
Shiia?”

One major concern for the United States is oil. While oil production in 
the United States, Mexico, and the North Sea is declining, U.S. 
consumption is predicted to increase by one-third over the next 20 
years. By 2020, two-thirds of all U.S. oil will be imported, and since 
65% of the world’s remaining oil reserves are in the Middle East, one 
doesn’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to conclude a strategy of 
divide and conquer is aimed at keeping strategic control of those 
resources.

Keeping up tensions in the Middle East is also enormously lucrative for 
U.S. arms companies. Since 2006, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman 
have spent—or will spend over the next year— more than $60 billion 
<http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/23/africa/web-0223gulf.php> on arms 
purchases.


      Blowback

In its campaign to divide and conquer, according to journalist Seymour 
Hersh <http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/23/africa/web-0223gulf.php>, 
the Bush administration has ended up bolstering “Sunni extremist groups 
that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and 
sympathetic to Al Qaeda.” Hersh quotes Martin Indyk, a former U.S. 
ambassador to Israel, as saying, “The Middle East is heading into a 
serious Sunni-Shiite cold war. The White House is not just doubling the 
bet in Iraq; it’s doubling the bet across the region. This could get 
very complicated.”

“Blowback” has already happened. As Iran’s ambassador to the United 
Nations wrote <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8744>in 
/The New York Times/, “Who cannot remember that to contain the so-called 
‘Shiite Crescent’ after the 1979 revolution, the extremism of the 
fundamentalist Salafi movement was nourished by the West—only to 
transform into Al-Qaeda and the Taliban? Why should the same policy in 
the same region procure any different results now?”

While the Shi’a are often represented as a single entity, there are in 
fact enormous differences among Shi’a communities. They are a majority 
in Iran, but Persians are ethnically different than Arabs. The Shi’a 
constitute the bulk of the Muslim population in Lebanon, but Hezbollah 
leader Hassan Nasrallah has been sharply critical of Iraq’s Shi’a 
government for working hand in glove with the U.S. occupation.

In any case, Shi’a make up only 12-15% of the Muslim world and, outside 
Iran and Iraq, constitute a majority only in Yemen. Traditionally they 
“are under represented,” according to Jon Alterman 
<http://electroniciraq.net/news/2947.shtml>of the Center for Strategic 
and International Studies. “Socially and economically, Shi’a communities 
are more marginalized, less educated, and poorer.”

The fact that Shi’a communities—particularly in Lebanon and Iraq, but 
also in Saudi Arabia—are suddenly on the radar screen has less to with 
any kind of Iran-driven conspiracy than with growing resistance to the 
sect’s traditionally second-class status in the Middle East. The 
“divisions” are political and economic, not sectarian, says Abdel-Latif.

Although the division between Sunnis and Shi’a dates from shortly after 
the Prophet Mohammed died in 632, the great gulf between them is often 
exaggerated. As London School of Economics Middle East expert Fred 
Halliday points out 
<http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization/islam_4334.jsp>, the 
distinctions “are small, far less than those between Catholics and 
Protestants in Christianity,” and conflict between the two is 
“essentially a recent development, a product of the Middle East 
political crisis in recent decades.” For instance, Shi’ites and Sunnis 
have intermarried and shared holy sites for centuries.

Halliday argues that the wars in Kashmir and Afghanistan encouraged the 
division because militant Sunni groups were the heart of the resistance. 
The real divisions may be small, but religious conflict has always been 
a surrogate for something else. In Ireland it divided native Irish from 
Protestant settlers and kept the two at one another’s throats. In Egypt, 
the British manipulated Copts against Muslims, Christian Greeks against 
Muslim Turks in Cyprus.

As the Irish found out to their woe, small differences, if linked to a 
wider policy, can turn esoteric matters of theology into a life and 
death matter. “These fires, once lit, can destroy forms of co-existence 
that have existed for centuries,” points out Halliday.

And no one can be certain where those fires will spread and who they 
will burn.

/

Conn Hallinan is a Foreign Policy In Focus (www.fpif.org) columnist.

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4160

#-------------------------------------

Regards,

LelandJ

/
Graham Dobson wrote:
> I suppose it is the black-clad and thuggish gunmen who follow him, and this
> reliance on an otherworldly mysticism for his authority which strikes me as
> extreme and dangerous.  I am also suspicious of his rabid anti-American,
> pro-Iranian worldview.  But,  if America is not to take sides in this spiral
> of sectarian violence, and if America and her allies have a moral obligation
> to do what they can to end the carnage, then this guy and his murderous
> militia will have to be dealt with.    Graham.
>
> Well, explain again why the believe by some Shiites that al-Sadr is the
> reincarnated 10th century leader Imam al-Mahdi make al-Sadr an extreme
> radical.
>
> Christians like myself believe the Jesus Christ was God incarnated in
> the flesh.  Does that make Jesus Christ extreme, radical, or evil, per
> say?  I don't think so.
>
> Regards,
>
> LelandJ
>
>
>
[excessive quoting removed by server]

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