On Mar 28, 2011, at 3:26 PM, Mike Copeland wrote:
> Anyone care to put their forecast hats on and predict where the tablet
> market will end up in 2 years? 5 years?
I read a very interesting article on the place of tablet computing that
compared tablets to microwave ovens.
http://techinch.com/2011/03/17/ipad-the-microwave-oven-of-computing/
( -or- http://j.mp/hIRTOS )
Those of us who remember the days before microwaves were standard
kitchen components know that it took some time for that niche to develop.
Originally, microwave ovens were sold as regular ovens, only smaller, faster,
cooler, etc. They didn't do very well in the market, because despite their
speed, they didn't cook food better than regular ovens did.
In much the same way, the first tablet computers were sold as smaller,
sleeker, lighter versions of laptop computers, and likewise they never took
off. People simply preferred full computers to these newfangled things that
simply didn't work as well.
It wasn't until people realized that microwaves were good for reheating
things that they got some adoption. And when food companies started making
things that were designed to be cooked in a microwave, the food started tasting
better and people started to buy more and more of these devices. They still use
their regular ovens for baking bread, cooking roasts and the like, and they use
microwaves for a new class of food preparation that simply didn't exist
beforehand.
The reason that the iPad and those that copy its approach will succeed
is that they recognize that tablet/pad computing is an entirely different beast
than desktop/laptop computing, and that by trying to be a regular computing
device it would fail. Instead, they created a new UI that is designed to work
with fingers instead of mice and keyboards, and created app development tools
designed to produce these new apps. So just as you really don't need to heat a
full oven anymore just to reheat some of last night's leftovers, you don't need
a high-powered computer to check your email or Twitter feed.
-- Ed Leafe
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